Whose facts? You have a sitting duck population on a cruise ship only 24% got infected. There is some natural immunity (t cell) not taken into account. I have seen R0 numbers all over the place. At the rate of 1000 deaths per day it would take 3 years to reach your million dead and that’s if the numbers don’t keep dropping. Places like Sweden prove herd immunity is reached with not many more deaths than we have had already. I’m not afraid, far from it. Your numbers are irresponsible and certainly not fact but I’m sure fauci agrees with you so there’s that. I’m leaving for the day but will try to check back later.
The population on the cruise ship were as isolated from one another as they possibly could be.
There may be some natural immunity, but we don’t have any real measure of that at this point.
You may have seen R0 numbers all over the place, but I haven’t seen any recent study (in the past ~3 months) that puts it anywhere outside the 2.0 - 2.8 range and the CDC’s best estimate is 2.5 (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html). The R0 does not change. Rt changes based on population responses, environmental conditions, and normal epidemiological progression.
Deaths per day is not constant. It depends on how many are infected and who is infected at any given time. Throughout this pandemic, the US has seen daily deaths anywhere from 268 to 2,748. In 1918, it was a second wave that hit the hardest in terms of fatalities. Hopefully we avoid finding out what a second wave looks like here by vaccinating enough people. Europe is currently seeing their second waves begin now. We’ll have to see what ultimately happens with Sweden, but their new cases numbers have been rising and falling. That isn’t what you see when herd immunity is reached. What you see then is Rt reduced below 1 and new cases dwindling towards zero as susceptible hosts become increasingly difficult for the virus to encounter.
My numbers match with what the published studies, the CDC, and epidemiologists around the world are saying. If you think you know better than the CDC what’s happening with an infectious disease in the US, then good for you. I’m using published scientific data and I’m stating that the situation is what it is, causes for the situation should be examined in context (e.g. Democrat governors forcing nursing homes to accept infected patients), and the path forward to the endgame clearly defined (which President Trump has done a fantastic job of articulating). Do that and none of this is scary anymore. It demonstrates that we have a solid understanding of what’s happening and that the people in charge (such as President Trump) know how to bring an end to this and are working hard to do so.