If Barrett is the nominee, and the democrats try to destroy her, I think the independent votes in Maine will bbreak heavily for Collins. If she votes no, she’s likely lose enough GOP support to cost her any chance to win.
I'm reposting an earlier post of why I think Collins is gone.
I think her fate is sealed. Maine voters won't be that fickle that they hate her now but will switch if she votes against.Look at the recent NYT/Siena poll:
- Independents prefer Gideon 50-42. Independents make up 42% of the poll sample.
- Gideon's favorable/unfavorable is 55/40. Collins' is 50/47.
- Among Independents, Gideon is 58/36 and Collins is 48/51.
- Among Independents, Brett Kavanaugh is 25/49, so I don't think Collins will recover from that vote.
- Among Independents, Black Lives Matter is 64/29, so Maine has clearly moved away from Collins' leanings.
- On the question "Who will do better choosing a Supreme Court Justice," Independents chose Biden over Trump 68/28. Those people won't change their minds on Collins no matter how she votes. They want the Democrat.
- On the question "Do you prefer Democrat or Republican control of the Senate," Independents chose Democrats 58/34. Collins is gone no matter what she does.
At this point, Collins should be thinking about legacy. I hope she doesn't want to be compared to John McCain, whose lasting legacy is voting down Obamacare repeal just to spite President Trump, Americans be damned.
Collins should take the high road and vote to secure the leaning of the Supreme Court for the next three decades.
-PJ