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If Barrett is the nominee, and the democrats try to destroy her, I think the independent votes in Maine will bbreak heavily for Collins. If she votes no, she’s likely lose enough GOP support to cost her any chance to win.

I'm reposting an earlier post of why I think Collins is gone.

I think her fate is sealed. Maine voters won't be that fickle that they hate her now but will switch if she votes against.
Look at the recent NYT/Siena poll:

Independents prefer Gideon 50-42. Independents make up 42% of the poll sample.
Gideon's favorable/unfavorable is 55/40. Collins' is 50/47.

Among Independents, Gideon is 58/36 and Collins is 48/51.
Among Independents, Brett Kavanaugh is 25/49, so I don't think Collins will recover from that vote.
Among Independents, Black Lives Matter is 64/29, so Maine has clearly moved away from Collins' leanings.

On the question "Who will do better choosing a Supreme Court Justice," Independents chose Biden over Trump 68/28. Those people won't change their minds on Collins no matter how she votes. They want the Democrat.
On the question "Do you prefer Democrat or Republican control of the Senate," Independents chose Democrats 58/34. Collins is gone no matter what she does.

At this point, Collins should be thinking about legacy. I hope she doesn't want to be compared to John McCain, whose lasting legacy is voting down Obamacare repeal just to spite President Trump, Americans be damned.
Collins should take the high road and vote to secure the leaning of the Supreme Court for the next three decades.

-PJ

Collins could have a Cabinet for the asking in the upcoming second Trump Administration for what was a remarkable speech October of 2018, not so much in support of Justice Kavanaugh, but for dissembling the Democrat dissemblers and directly putting Feinswine to shame -- nay, censure! -- in the well of the Senate.

"But today we have come to the conclusion of a confirmation process that has become so dysfunctional it looks more like a caricature of a gutter-level political campaign than a solemn occasion.
There are some who argue that given the current Special Counsel investigation, President Trump should not even be allowed to nominate a justice. That argument ignores our recent history. President Clinton, in 1993, nominated Justice Ginsburg after the Whitewater investigation was already underway. And she was confirmed 96-3. The next year, just three months after Independent Counsel Robert Fiske was named to lead the Whitewater investigation, President Clinton nominated Justice Breyer. He was confirmed 87-9.
One theory I have heard espoused repeatedly is that our colleague, Senator Feinstein, leaked Professor Ford’s letter at the eleventh hour to derail this process. But the fact remains, Mr. President, that someone leaked this letter against Professor Ford’s express wishes. I suspect, regrettably, that we will never know for certain who did it. To that leaker, who I hope is listening now, let me say that what you did was unconscionable. You have taken a survivor who was not only entitled to your respect, but who also trusted you to protect her – and you have sacrificed her well-being in a misguided attempt to win whatever political crusade you think you are fighting. My only hope is that your callous act has turned this process into such a dysfunctional circus that it will cause the Senate – and indeed all Americans – to reconsider how we evaluate Supreme Court nominees."

I agree with your last point. And perhaps things will play the way you suspect. And I’m wrong on my take on things.
At least in the Lewiston/auburn area the poll doesn’t come close to reality, I’m hitting doors for Trump, and having done this for a decade I know when people re telling things I want to hear. He’ll carry Auburn, come close in Lewiston and which means he’ll dominate cd-2. Is that enough to win the state, maybe. And maybe drag Collins to victory.