| Country | 2Q GDP | Per Capital Fatalities 6/30/2020 | Modeled 2Q GDP | Actual-Modeled GDP change |
| Austria | (10.7) | 26,098 | (9.6) | (1.1) |
| Belgium | (12.2) | 278,728 | (14.8) | 2.6 |
| Brazil | (9.7) | 92,930 | (11.0) | 1.3 |
| Canada | (12.0) | 75,059 | (10.6) | (1.4) |
| Denmark | (7.4) | 34,242 | (9.8) | 2.4 |
| France | (13.8) | 146,639 | (12.1) | (1.7) |
| Germany | (10.1) | 35,631 | (9.8) | (0.3) |
| Ireland | (6.1) | 116,247 | (11.4) | 5.3 |
| Italy | (12.4) | 190,190 | (13.0) | 0.6 |
| Netherlands | (8.5) | 115,801 | (11.4) | 2.9 |
| New Zealand | (12.2) | 1,457 | (9.1) | (3.1) |
| Portugal | (14.1) | 50,540 | (10.1) | (4.0) |
| Spain | (18.5) | 198,397 | (13.1) | (5.4) |
| Sweden | (8.6) | 170,081 | (12.6) | 4.0 |
| Switzerland | (8.2) | 75,341 | (10.6) | 2.4 |
| United Kingdom | (20.4) | 217,346 | (13.5) | (6.9) |
| United States | (9.1) | 127,417 | (11.7) | 2.6 |
The big 'winner' here is Ireland: their economy only went down by about 6% in the second quarter, beating my simple model by 530 basis points. At the other end of the spectrum is the UK, which had a GDP decline that was 690 basis points higher than the model. The US outperformed by 240 basis points, and much-maligned Sweden outperformed the model by 400 basis points.
New Zealand is, of course, an isolated island and locked down hard (but they weren't baaaad people when they did it, unlike the Orange Man). They paraded themselves around the world as the smartest country for dealing with a pandemic. But that low fatality total came with an outsized economic cost.
**-the r2 was 0.178 but the p-value on the overall regression was 0.091 - there was simply a lot of dispersion; more variables and more countries could help this analysis.
New Zealand has had 1800 cases and 25 deaths so far.
Holy Pavlova! what is going on down there ?!
So, New Zealand had few COVID deaths allegedly. How many increased deaths did the shutdown result in (suicides, people who didn’t go to the hospital in time, cancers not detected in time, etc)??? How many businesses went bankrupt?
The prime minister of New Zealand is an avowed socialist and has been since her youth. She has seized dictatorial power over the country using fear and her false but firm belief that a total lockdown will stop the virus.
As long as this lunatic woman is prime minister, New Zealand will NOT recover economically. You cannot lock down a worldwide pandemic and only a delusional NUT would believe that.
She has deceived her 5 million citizens but they will ultimately realize she is a fool and they have given her total control over them and made them all her “subjects” who must obey her.
l8r
later
Just a quick point, which needs to be made more often:
A decision to suppress the circulation of the virus by restrictive economic and social measures is a POLITICAL decision, not a SCIENTIFIC one.
Science can tell you what will happen with various levels and durations of restriction. There is now a lot of data on that.
Science CANNOT tell you if the price is justified by the consequences of wider viral circulation.
That’s what you get for electing a “Jacinda”.