Posted on 09/03/2020 8:29:49 PM PDT by cold start
Events early this week point to a particularly sharp turn in the India-China crisis in eastern Ladakh.
As the India-China military crisis in eastern Ladakh enters its fourth month, there are scant signs that a peaceful solution is in the offing any time soon. On Monday morning, the Indian government issued a statement which noted that the army had pre-empted a Chinese push into the southern bank of the Pangong Lake, suggesting a new area of dispute had been created. (Up until the Indian statement, it was believed that the northern bank of the lake along with a few other points in eastern Ladakh were the only flashpoints)
Soon after this, the Chinese government in a barrage of statements accused India of attempting to change the status quo in eastern Ladakh at two points through a military push. Over the past few days, both governments have provided little clarity on what, in fact, is going on and have focused on generalities of the situation instead. Absent the opportunity for ground reporting, most journalists covering the developments have relied on anonymous government sources.
But sifting through media reports, two interrelated things have become clear, each of which has tremendous import for the future of the India-China crisis and the relationship in general. One, after months of prevarication, India’s military posture in eastern Ladakh is now extremely robust. Two, New Delhi is willing to deploy sharp tools to settle the dispute on its own terms, or at least force China to negotiate in good faith.
Beyond the lack of on-the-ground reports and a forbidding and unfamiliar terrain, what further makes the current crisis almost impossible to objectively track in terms of establishing chains of unfolding events is the fact that the 3,488-kilometer long India-China boundary remains largely undefined, neither marked on paper nor demarcated on land. In Ladakh, and the western sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in general, China and India have yet to exchange maps which would establish each other’s claims.
Instead, the LAC that separates India and China is a phantom object, unlike the India-Pakistan Line of Control (LOC) which is marked on mutually accepted maps though not an international border by any means. In so far as the LAC exists it is through tacit understanding based on past patterns of patrolling by the Indian and Chinese armies. So, news reports that suggest India had crossed the LAC around the weekend – or that China had done so – to capture key peaks in the southern bank of the Pangong Lake should be taken with an appropriate degree of caution.
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However, going by the relentless and strident Chinese statements – not to mention belligerent op-eds in the state-run Global Times – India did, over the past weekend and early this week, take military steps that have upset China. It does seem likely that India has managed to occupy one or more peaks on the southern bank of Pangong Lake. Capturing heights from China’s control not only gives the Indian Army ability to surveil territory occupied by the Chinese in the vicinity (useful in the event India does decide to evict the People’s Liberation Army by force) but also — as many have pointed out — serve as a bargaining chip to restore status quo ante through exchange of territory in each other’s control exceeding customary claims.
Either way, Indian actions early this week mark a turning point in the ongoing crisis.
Most strikingly credible news reports that India used the highly-secretive Special Frontier Force (SFF) to launch measures it did has been the highlight of the week. The paramilitary SFF reports to the chief of the Research & Analysis Wing, India’s external spy service, and at least one (“Vikas”) battalion of the SFF is manned by ethnic Tibetans in India. The SFF functions like the Special Activities Division of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The force grew out of “Establishment 22,” a Tibetan guerrilla force that was trained jointly by the CIA and India after the 1962 India-China War.
The message India sought to send China by using ethnic Tibetans in a military operation against that country is self-evident. .....
Pei-Ping.
The only thing bullies understand is force. China has been trying to bully the rest of Asia for decades, and it looks like some of its neighbors have finally decided to push back.
They should use their Ghurkas.
The SFF does have Gurkhas along with ethnic Tibetans. This is apart from the number of Gurkha regiments in the Indian army. ( SFF is not under the army)
Lha gyalo!
Tibet ain’t happy with China, that’s for sure. Been biding their time and waiting for a chance to stick it to China.
I’ll pray for India.
Tibetans are not known to be that great of fighters . The exception being the Khampas , which were slaughtered , wholesale, by the PLA as they overran their territory in the 50’s. CIA trained ethnic Tibetan operatives , dropped into Tibet in the 60’s also accomplished little and were quickly wiped out. Their best attribute could be they have great endurance at the highest altitudes ( like Sherpa) . The Indians should pull back and just release sine diseases up in those valleys , and total wioe out the Han vermin . They have it coming. Human scum....
I’m putting $10 down on the snake charmers over the chinks.
An I’ll need a couple more bags of popcorn and a case of American beer!
Bullying works so well inside China, the CCP can't understand why it isn't working against the rest of the world. The CCP has no friends and is making new enemies everywhere. The only rational explanation is the current CCP leadership is incompetent, but that is normal for communism.
“The only rational explanation is the current CCP leadership is incompetent, but that is normal for communism.”
I don’t think it’s so much incompetence as what they are. A hammer sees the entire world as a nail. The CCP is a hammer. And, if something doesn’t work, then try the same thing again and much harder this time. The CCP is desperate. This desperation is reflected in the new law imposed on Hong Kong. Normally, in non-desperate times, the CCP would have played the long game and worked more subtly behind the scenes. Because they are so focused and the rest of the world has the attention span of kittens, they have repeatedly won. Not so this time.
The ongoing disasters all over China and an impending financial collapse that will be the biggest ever seen...ever...anywhere...has the CCP in full panic mode. Given that you can hardly expect a hammer to start thinking like a screwdriver.
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