I expect Trump will win but he isn’t going to win the popular vote. Democrats will run up the score in the blue states and their GOTV/ballot harvesting efforts in swing states will add to that.
You could be right. I’m hopeful though.
The Democrats have an exceptionally weak ticket.
I think either George McGovern or Walter Mondale could run circles around Joe Biden and look how their challenges to an incumbent president turned out.
Bob Dole was ten times the candidate Joe Biden is, and they had no chance against Bill Clinton. Kerry vs. Bush, Romney vs. Obama - all far more impressive challengers than Joe Biden.
It’s not easy unseating an incumbent President. Only twice in modern history has it been done, and there were special circumstances.
Reagan vs. Carter wasn’t even a fair fight... does anyone seriously think Joe Biden is the Democrat’s secret weapon - their Ronald Reagan?
Bush lost to Clinton only because Ross Perot took 20% of the pro business Republican vote. And two days before the election, they indicted Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger on bogus charges - at the time, one of the most shameless political hit jobs since Watergate.