Posted on 08/23/2020 5:17:28 AM PDT by karpov
We’ve known from the beginning how the end will arrive. Eventually, the coronavirus will be unable to find enough susceptible hosts to survive, fading out wherever it briefly emerges.
To achieve so-called herd immunity — the point at which the virus can no longer spread widely because there are not enough vulnerable humans — scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.
Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought.
The new estimates result from complicated statistical modeling of the pandemic, and the models have all taken divergent approaches, yielding inconsistent estimates. It is not certain that any community in the world has enough residents now immune to the virus to resist a second wave.
But in parts of New York, London and Mumbai, for example, it is not inconceivable that there is already substantial immunity to the coronavirus, scientists said.
“I’m quite prepared to believe that there are pockets in New York City and London which have substantial immunity,” said Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “What happens this winter will reflect that.”
“The question of what it means for the population as a whole, however, is much more fraught,” he added.
Herd immunity is calculated from the epidemic’s so-called reproductive number, R0, an indicator of how many people each infected person spreads the virus to.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
If cross immunity exists, then if one were to give someone a cold, then they would have immunity to the wuhanvirus as well.
The level of antibodies in your blood can be so low that they are not detected while still being effective when you are exposed. IN addition the antibody tests being used in this country have been notoriously inaccurate. So no conclusions can be reached from your daughter's test results.
The mask is a rub your face in liberal BS solution to nothing. Coronavirus doesn't live more than a minute or two in full on sunshine, but since people in uncomfortable climates spend most of their time indoors the chances of you picking up any type of communicable disease is greater than in places with more comfortable climates in indoor public places.
There are many types of corona viruses, and many types of “colds”.
A significant percentage of colds are caused by corona viruses, but far from all.
So you can get a cold without contracting a corona virus, and only some corona viruses provide cross immunity to only certain other corona viruses.
That is why they have a new flu vaccine every year - to immunize against the latest current strains. You may have immunity to some strains, but not others.
OK, antibody test. The point remains that cross immunity can exist, without COVID-19 antibodies being detected by testing.
Let’s not miss the forest for the weeds.
NYC lost about 1/4 percent of its population in April. Spread too fast for the health system to keep up and develop better treatments. Sometimes making it last a little longer has a benefit. In Florida for example the case fatality rate is 1.7% In New York state it is 7.2%
An average person would be four times better off getting the disease later in Florida than in New York earlier. That same four times better off ratio is repeated across the country.
True. But with four times more death. The numbers are crystal clear. The early states had four times more death per case than the later states. Are they better off now? Maybe.
The authors of this study (linked in the article) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1?%253fcollection= , theorize that the threshold for herd immunity to COVID-19 might be 10-20% infected, because of cross immunity.
The authors of this study (also linked in the article) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1?%253fcollection= , report that herd immunity at 10-20% was observed to fit their models (which account for variances in individual susceptibility, like cross immunity, as well as variances in individual exposure rates) in real world populations in Belgium, England, Portugal and Spain.
Apparently, once those at high exposure (like cashiers, cooks, bus drivers, etc.) have already had it, there are enough people who are not susceptible (e.g. with cross immunity) that transmission just peters out in the general population.
Vaccines might be needed mainly for those most vulnerable, and those most mission essential, like front-line workers, and emergency responders.
The authors of this study (linked in the article) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1?%253fcollection= , theorize that the threshold for herd immunity to COVID-19 might be 10-20% infected, because of cross immunity.
The authors of this study (also linked in the article) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1?%253fcollection= , report that herd immunity at 10-20% was observed to fit their models (which account for variances in individual susceptibility, like cross immunity, as well as variances in individual exposure rates) in real world populations in Belgium, England, Portugal and Spain.
Apparently, once those at high exposure (like cashiers, cooks, bus drivers, etc.) have already had it, there are enough people who are not susceptible (e.g. with cross immunity) that transmission just peters out in the general population.
Vaccines might be needed mainly for those most vulnerable, and those most mission essential, like front-line workers, and emergency responders.
Diseases were mean’t to cull. What don’t kill you makes you stronger.
While testable antibodies show active antibodies at the time, the fading of them is not abnormal. Tcell bone marrow memory have now been taught what to do. So when the virus comes back new antibodies can and will be quickly created. This is the part they fail to tell everyone when talking about antibodies that have disappeared. They act as s if our immune system cannot generate more. It can and it does, this is how it works.
N= P x log i/h
Where N = herd immunity
P = population
i = number of children
h = number of houses, apartments or condos
Dhimmicrat controlled cities have interfered with and slowed the natural process of herd immunity - the thing that keeps us alive as a species. The dhimmicrats are directly responsible for thousands of deaths and the strangulation of our society.
A pox on each and every one of them!
That is the point I was trying to make. If not that, then a vaccine will not work.
Mask manfucaturers, mask nazis, and, especially BIG PHARMA will be bitterly disappointed.
Watch BIG PHARMA suppress the data.
I’m in NY. The actions to save us killed us.
I’m in NY. The actions to save us killed us.
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