Posted on 08/14/2020 6:55:17 AM PDT by Yo-Yo
Democrat Joe Biden's lead has expanded to double-digits against President Trump in the presidential election, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds. Biden now leads Trump 53% to 42%, up from an 8-point advantage at the end of June.
The change comes as 71% of Americans now see the coronavirus as a real threat, up significantly over the last several months, as more than 167,000 Americans have died and more than 5 million have become infected with the virus, as of Friday.
And yet, more than a third of Americans (35%) say they won't get vaccinated when a vaccine comes available; 60% say they will. There are huge splits by education and party on this. Those with college degrees are 19 points more likely to get vaccinated than those without (72% to 53%), and Democrats are 23 points more likely than Republicans (71% to 48%).
(Just 52% had said they would get vaccinated for H1N1 in 2009 in the survey, but H1N1 was far less deadly and did not have the same far-reaching impact on the American economy and society.)
Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has said he is concerned about the unwarranted vaccine skepticism in some of the country and how that could slow overcoming the virus.
"We have to admit and realize that there is an anti-vax movement that we have had to struggle with in this country," Fauci told the PBS NewsHour last month. "And I believe the solution to that would be community engagement ... because it could be lifesaving, and it certainly would be the solution to this terrible pandemic."
The poll shows that experts like Fauci have some leverage in making the case to the public. Three-quarters of Americans (75%) say they trust the information they hear from public health experts a great deal or a good amount. State and local officials also fare well, with 62% of Americans saying they trust what they hear from them.
President Trump, whose approval rating has dipped to 39% in this survey, is seen as an unreliable source of information on the pandemic. Just 31% say they can trust the information coming from the president. Less than half — 46% — say they trust what they hear from news media on it.
On the issues, Trump trails Biden substantially on who is seen as better to handle coronavirus or race relations. Biden has a 53% to 37% lead on handling coronavirus, and an even wider 58% to 34% advantage on handling race relations.
Trump retains a narrow, 47% to 45% edge on the economy, but that has narrowed since March when Trump had a clear 50% to 42% lead on the question in an ABC/Washington Post poll.
All of that helps explain Biden's expanded lead and where the vote is coming from. Biden has now reached a majority (52%) with independents and leads Trump with this crucial group by 16 percentage points.
Biden's advantages
Biden also has significant advantages with Black voters, young voters, whites with a college degree and suburban voters. Trump draws his strongest support from white evangelical Christians, whites without a college degree and those who live in rural areas.
Trump has seen his advantages with other key groups decline, including with whites overall, men and voters in small towns.
What's particularly striking is Trump and Biden are now tied with whites at 48%. Trump had a 6-point advantage with the group at the end of June.
To underscore the significance of this, Trump won white voters by 20 points in 2016, and no Democrat has gotten more than 44% of the white vote (incumbent President Bill Clinton in 1996) in a presidential election since 1976.
That year, Carter got 48% of the white vote and won in an electoral landslide, but only by 2 percentage points in the popular vote. Back then, whites made up almost 9 in 10 voters.
In 2016, whites were down to 70% as a share of the electorate, and demographics point to a continuing downward trend.
Neither Trump nor Biden is viewed very favorably, but Trump's score is far worse than Biden's. Just 35% said they have a favorable view of Trump, even less than approve of the job he's doing; 60% have an unfavorable view.
For Biden, 42% had a positive impression, 49% had a negative one.
Notably, Biden leads by 19 points voters who say they dislike both candidates. That's important because in 2016, Trump won voters who said they disliked both Trump and his Democrat Hillary Clinton by 30 points, according to exit polls.
Even though Clinton led for most of 2016 in surveys, the election broke late in Trump's direction because of voters who said they were undecided and said they disliked both candidates.
This poll finds that just 12% are persuadable — either undecided or could change their vote.
The one positive sign for Trump continues to be the strong backing of his supporters. His voters are more enthusiastically behind him than Biden — 76% of them say they strongly support the president versus 64% of Biden's.
The Trump campaign has highlighted similar findings in other surveys, but reelections are about the incumbent president, and the voters who oppose Trump are highly motivated to cast their ballots.
One of the goals of the Democratic National Convention, which begins next week, might be try to drum up more enthusiasm for the ticket, now consisting of Biden and California Sen. Kamala Harris, whom Biden picked to be his running mate this week.
"The pick of Harris and the Democratic convention could change that," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. "Certainly one of the goals of the Democratic convention should be to close this enthusiasm gap for the ticket."
Mailing it in
Half of Americans (50%) now say they will cast their votes in person, up from 38% in May.
Forty-three percent say they will mail in their ballots, down from 50% in May. And there is a big partisan split.
Biden voters mostly say they plan to cast their vote by mail, 62% to 36%.
Trump supporters, though, plan to physically go to the polls — 72% to 24%.
Coronavirus — what to do and not do
American families are hotly debating the right and wrong things to do during the tenuous reopenings during the pandemic.
Well, here are some numbers to settle those arguments. Most Americans think it's largely a good idea to eat outside at restaurants (80%) and have people physically return to work (58%), though to a lesser degree.
They do not, however, think it's a good idea to: allow large groups of people to attend religious, social or sporting events (just 27% in favor), allow children to take part in local or school sports (35%), have students return to school (40%) or open restaurants for people to eat inside (43%).
The survey of 1,261 U.S. adults, including 1,118 registered voters, was conducted by calling mobile phones and landlines, from Aug. 3 through Aug. 11 by The Marist Poll, in both English and Spanish. The poll has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points when adults are referenced and 3.6 percentage points for registered voters. The survey was sponsored in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour.
How does a “stunning collapse in white support for Trump” comport with an approval rating of 47%? It makes no sense given the sample size and frequency of polling.
In the past 3 weeks Trump has changed weekly from being down 6 followed by? down 2 followed by down 3 followed by down 6 this week.
Can you link me to those internals showing Trump support among whites “plummeting”
I suspect they know they are full of it but what they are doing is setting up their base to raise hell for any outcome that does not defeat Trump.
“Trump won? Impossible! The polls said he would lose in a landslide! Call out the army! Drive him out!”
A survey of “adults” from what I can tell.
ELECTION 2016 8/5: Clinton with Wide Lead over Trump Nationally
By Marist Poll Published on August 5, 2016
In a national survey conducted from Monday through Wednesday this week, Democrats Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, 48%, lead Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Pence, 33%, by 15 points among registered voters in the race for the White House.
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3870884/posts
Rasmussen is getting confusing because of 3 polls with that name - a Presidential approval poll, a weekly Trump vs Biden poll, and a monthly poll done by Scott Rasmussen but not affiliated with Rasmussen Reports. Thanks.
Please these polls make for good troll bait but no reasonable American is voting for a man with dementia
Sad thing is with what the left has done to this country with the Covid BS and riot support in just seven months they WRECKED our economy and our country. THIS is what Marxist do. The polls, even when they try to fake them, should not be close. POTUS should be ahead MILES.
Let the white pukes in the burbs vote for their own demise.
They are purposefully keeping COVID going to hurt POTUS and hide Biden. Will there be a debate???
THIS IS SPOT ON. The global money lords pull the strings. They will not have an interloper in their midst. Trump will be gone.
“The polls, even when they try to fake them, should not be close”
The fake polls will never show Trump close or leading, that’s why they’re fake. Until perhaps a week before election, when they have to adjust their sampling to reflect reality in order to avoid embarrassment come election day. It’s 2016 all over again, so get used to the barrage of fake polls showing Trump behind.
You seem like a genuine devil’s advocate, so do yourself a favor and spend some time watching Richard Baris (People’s Pundit Daily) educating on media-narrative polling - such as the ones you think are relevant.
Thank you for that tip.
Did the “objective’ Marxist “poll” take into account the probability that anti Trump whites are much more likely to spew their pandering venom @ Trump
Than the enthusiastic supporters who think it’s NOYB?
anyone know if Trumps approval among Republicans still in the 85-90% range??...if it is he wins, this is gonna be a base election and theres a huge enthusiasm gap for old Joe...
This poll is NOT even of registered voters, like the 2016 one. I am heartened by the complete miss by Marist polling.
“Another poll that shows Trump reaching a historic, 25-year low among whites, on track for the worst performance among whites for a Republican Presidential candidate in nearly a generation.
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Think it’s true?”
What are the internals of the poll?
The more the economy drags and sputters, the more likely these polls are accurate.
Where I am in NH, Trump support is dropping like a rock. Even small business guys on my street are souring on him fast. I can see a bunch of them just going to work (HVAC, construction, etc...) then going home late at night like they always do and not bother stopping at the polls.
Up here the GOP/Repubs are DOA, there is just no party organization and other than the Governor, there are real no serious challengers to the Moonbat rat women who control our federal elective offices.
Even small business guys on my street are souring on him fast. I can see a bunch of them just going to work (HVAC, construction, etc...) then going home late at night like they always do and not bother stopping at the polls.
Up here the GOP/Repubs are DOA, there is just no party organization and other than the Governor, there are real no serious challengers to the Moonbat rat women who control our federal elective offices.
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Sooo....are you saying that the blue collar types up in NH enjoy seeing things handed over to moonbats? Have they expressed sentiments that the Left would make things better?
I believe what is happening is that all they hear is negative news all day long and just want it to stop and if it means getting rid of Trump, so be it.
That is i am seeing.
I believe what is happening is that all they hear is negative news all day long and just want it to stop and if it means getting rid of Trump, so be it.
That is i am seeing.
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Sound like a bunch of pussies who deserve to be treated as serfs. They certainly don’t sound like men who have fought and died for the right to control their destinies through the franchise.
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