Some knowledgeable folks have said that this kind of dam should not just catastrophically blow wide open.
If just too much rain comes in however, it could be overwhelmed, with water running around the sides and over the top.
Supposedly, there is some chance for a breach around the side, if there is a structural failure. Of course, with anything made in China, there is also some chance that corners were cut during construction, and that the dam is not actually built up to the design specs.
But even if the dam holds, and it itself is not overwhelmed, there has already been massive flooding downstream, that is of disaster levels.
20% of China’s farmland was reported to be flooded, and more heavy rain is coming Wed/Thursday.
20% is flooded, and a large portion is dried up as a result of drought up north.
BTW, the dam was built under the usual corruption within that political system. Several engineers quit, and they claim that it wasnt even dug down into solid bedrock before they started pouring concrete.
News today from sources say that since they built it in sections, some of the sections have substantial cracks forming.
If it does not blow out, it will be a miracle.
Its called scour velocity, but you need to consider the debris in the water combined with speed of the flow. This is what will cause the damage and once that loosens the rocks that will add to more erosive action. It will become exponential
The dam originally was not built to the specs. They called in Western engineers to quietly see what they could do about multiple problems at the time - including cracks in the dam before the reservoir was fully filled. IIRC, the engineers only solution for the cracks problem was to inject exotic construction adhesives under pressure into the cracks to hold the dam together.
On paper, the dam *should* hold. But corruption and poor QC make that doubtful.
If the dam fails at all, the force of the water going through the breach will very quickly erode the rest of the dam.
Once it starts, there’s no stopping it until it runs out of water.
Being China if it breaches on the side they’ll just pour human waves into it until it’s filled. Probably will start with Uighurs.
The Chinese have admitted that a part of the dam is “distorted”.