COVID-19 Update - 07/29/2020

My own workup | 07/29/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 133

As of 07/28/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information²
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities

Fatalities in the United States rose to 1,875 yesterday. That was a 67.80%
increase drom the same day last week.

If that number is valid without some sort of accounting adjustment, it is troubling.
Why do I see it that way?

We want to get things opened up. The democRats want to keep things shut down.
If we actually are spiking up to the 1,875 range, this is not going to help
us get the place opened up.

We'll have to see how it goes over the next few days. Wednesday was the highest
Fatality day last week. Stay tuned...

Added Feature for the Dashboard

We have been able to check out the day over day numbers as far back as seven days
on the Update Dashboard. I decided to provide a daily average of the Fatalities
and the New Case Declarations.

What you will see is the former eight day average ending on a Saturday, and the
current rolling average back seven days, for a total of eight days.

This document will be improved over the next few days. Eventually I plan on
supplying up to seven weeks of averages, so that we can easily pick up trends on
the Update Dashboard.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

New Cases rose a bit yeterday. Even so it was 3.34% lower than the number on
the same day the week before. I'd like to think that was an indication of a
new direction, but if you look at testing numbers, you see that they have fallen
off ten percent in recent days. This lower number probably doesn't indicatie
any change in direction.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Once again the big thing to notice in the above set of numbers, was the number of
Serious/Critical cases. As long as those are elevated this high, we've got
problems.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

Minimalist change here yesterday.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Clearly the single, seven, and fourteen day lines are moving way up.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Look at those Postive Percentages over the last four days. We have a drop of
over 2.5% and a rise the next day of over 1.25%.

If we were running 25-50 tests per day, I'd say the numbers could easily reflect
this sort of drift. At 800k per day, I'm left scratching my head.

This graph shows a lot of ups and downs.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

It's getting pretty crowded in the middle on the right there.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

Numbers still remain very high.

Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Note the level of Serious/Critical cases on the right, compared to previous days.
That should be cause for concern in the region Outside China.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

This metric rose back up yesterday. It's a weekly pattern now.

Look at the Global regions there. Things picked up moving from the Sunday-Monday time of the week.

At least in the United States we've flattened out in this seven-day chart.

. The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Spain continues to spike upwards in its New Cases.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden is continuing to level out in its new cases.

Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

We took both categories yesterday. Dag Nabit!

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.008% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved<, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

We did hit 65.00% a few days ago, and we're marching up toward 66.0% now.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Again, notice the Serious/Critical categore on the right. It's nearly the
highest it has been.

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Yesterday our New Cases spiked upward. It was a massive increase over the week
before. 67.8%... It remains to be seen if this was a clerical correction.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

It was nice to see Fatalities remain below 1,000 yesterday. As we begin the week
here comes higher territory again. Yesterday's number while small, was still
8.97% higher than the Monday before. Again, 10.0% growth per week is not
a good thing.

We had a real spike. Now we have to wait and see if it is going to remain as a
new trend.

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

We've now risen to a number equivelent to 0.6491% of our populace being infected
with COVID-19. I should point out that over 65.3% of our Cases have been
resolved at this point.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

It's hard to belive there are that many nations with 1,000 cases.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

This what I said on the last update...

If you look at the increased growth in numbers this week, it's hard to escape the
realization that we are headed over the 300 thousand New Cases level per day,
later this week unless a correction occurs. Not seeing a correction on the horizon.

Of course the next day we have one of the very few days where the numbers didn't
set a daily record. Well, let's see if that's a new trend.

NOTICE: These columns were getting harder and harder to see. I decided to create
a larger chart and allow you to right click veiw it. I think you'll like the
better detail.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped about a
week ago.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.

We remained at 21st place in this category yesterday. It is the highest standing
we've seen so far.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[BlueStateRightist]

Worldometer shows 1,245 fatalities yesterday. Why the discrepancy with your figure?

[USS Alaska]

As a PA resident, I always compare our death rate per million to Sweden which has kept the schools, bars, gyms, churches and whore houses open and PA has closed them all to one degree or other.

They are both 564 and a third of NY and NJ which are both over 1600/million.

I am so pissed at the PA gummint for it's over reach and dictator like directives that come from Harrisburg.

You can not buy a beer without buying a full lunch at a bar.

Does the lunch prevent the spread of the kung-flu?

It would seem logical that if I went into a bar, drank one beer and left, that since I was there for a shorter period of time than someone eating a full lunch, that I would be less likely to participate in the sharing of the virus.

Logic with a demonRAT...no way.

[loucon]

Do you think you would have time to verify some numbers.

If you could, compare the numbers as reported by JHU, The Covid Tracking Project (The Atlantic), and what other publicly reported numbers we have to a new set of numbers released by the LDH (Louisiana Dept. of Health). They released this data on July 23 from the initial outbreak date to July 15. These are also the numbers the governor used to justify extending the lock down for another two week period.

Here is the link to their data.
“Historical case and testing data by parish by day”
http://ldh.la.gov/assets/oph/Coronavirus/data/LA_COVID_TESTBYDAY_PARISH_PUBLICUSE.xlsx

Something is way off.

[teeman8r]

the third leading cause of death in the USA is not corona virus... but medical mistakes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html

between 220,000 and as high as 440,000 deaths according to JHU study.

yes people have died from the virus, but not as many and the media would want you to believe... 0.00425 % 425 per million people infected.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Your data
Daily Test Count Daily Negative Test Count Daily Positive Test Count Daily Case Count

1,058,569 925,075 131,855 92,759

Worldometer total cases and total tests
111,038 1,276,304

[gogeo]

That number included adding ‘assumed prior cases into the total in Florida.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

NEW HOSPITALIZATIONS OF COVID PATIENTS IN FLORIDA

During the week Jul 1 thru 7 there were an average 276 new covid hospitalizations each day.

During the week Jul 8 thru 14 there were an average 368 new covid hospitalizations each day.

During the week Jul 15 thru 21 there were an average 414 new covid hospitalizations each day.

During the week Jul 22 thru 28 there were an average 465 new covid hospitalizations each day.

Jul 22 = 401
Jul 23 = 581
Jul 24 = 505
Jul 25 = 334
Jul 26 = 268
Jul 27 = 585
jul 28 = 582

We have had record numbers of new COVID cases in Florida for over five weeks.

We can conclude there is an increase in new hospitalizations for COVID infected patients. How this increase in new hospitalizations plays out is yet to be seen.

Given the fact that Florida has 62,000 hospital beds, the number of new hospitalizations of covid patients seems manageable.

Overall, the numbers in Florida are not looking good.

Death rates in Florida are starting to creep higher, now averaging more than 100 deaths per day versus averaging 40 deaths per day in June.

In terms of hospitalizations, more than 50% of new hospitalizations are in the over age 65 group

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“””That number included adding ‘assumed prior cases into the total in Florida.”””

---

Did you mean Florida? A 600+ surge in deaths are not shown in the FL DOH numbers.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf

[loucon]

Right so Worldometer shows a total event positivity rate at 8.7% while LDH data shows a total event positivity rate at almost 12.5% and it was the positivity rate that mostly factored into the decision to extend.

[DoughtyOne]

Worldometers references total deaths in the United States in
two place each day. There is its Nation’s listing reporting
out US Fatalities, and its State’s Listing reporting out
US Fatalities.

On the 27th at the end of the day, both listings pegged the
number of total US Fatalities at 150,444.

On the 28th at the end of the day, both listings pegged the
number of total US Fatalities at 152,320.

The difference between these two numbers is 1,876.

As I mentioned in my comments in Section 01, if there were
no clerical abnormalities, this is a troubling number.

Obviously, if there were reporting abnormalities of a
clerical nature, that would reduce the impact of this
number.

Now, there’s also an issue of shortages reported over a
number of days that should have been reported all along
and contributed to false numbers for those days, if this
elevated number was due to some state playing catch-up.

I can’t follow these entities around changing their
diapers each time they decide to take a dump on our
national numbers.

It is what it is.

[DoughtyOne]

Is LDH also reporting higher New Case levels each day than
WoM?

What’s it’s total declared case number for the U. S.?

If it’s positives are higher, then it has to believe there
are more cases than WoM is reporting out.

[loucon]

Is LDH also reporting higher New Case levels each day than WoM?

No. The numbers from the LDH dashboard are the numbers reported to the CDC and are the numbers harvested by JHU, Covid Tracking Project and others. This new data file seems to be disconnected from the other data that's being presented elsewhere. ???

[Paul R.]

Some housekeeping:

The 0.0425% (not 0.00425%, and now getting close to .0467%) is the % of reported fatalities out of the entire US population, NOT out of those reportedly infected.

For comparison, Chicago had 429 murders in 2019 out of a population of ~2.7 million people, 0.0207%, or, 207 murders per million people. However, that (and the medical mistakes number) are for a full year. COVID-19 has really been at work (in terms of fatalities) for half a year, and clearly has non-linear potential. Given what we’ve seen so far, unless the vaccine(s) work out, 500k USA COVID-19 fatalities by next March would not surprise me, and at least 300k is looking “fairly likely”. COVID-19’s “summer vigor” has been a bit unexpected, to me, at least, but it has to be taken into account as we close in on Fall.

This does not mean “the sky is falling” is a correct approach. But mis-stated numbers & comparisons are not a good basis for sober discussion.