2016 Trump vs Clinton:
Biden's lead is bigger, more enduring, and more consistent.
Posted on 07/16/2020 6:43:14 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A new Monmouth University poll out today shows Joe Biden comfortably ahead of Donald Trump by 53-40 in Pennsylvania. Biden has a 21 point lead among independents and leads in almost every age group, including those over 65.
But if you ask voters who they think is going to win the state of Pennsylvania, it’s a different story.
Most registered voters (54%) say they were surprised in 2016 when Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania’s electoral votes. They are evenly divided on whether they expect Trump (46%) or Biden (45%) to win the commonwealth this time around. One reason for this seems to be that most voters (57%) believe there are a number of so-called secret voters in their communities who support Trump but won’t tell anyone about it. Less than half that number (27%) believe there are secret voters for Biden. The suspicion that a secret Trump vote exists is slightly higher in swing counties (62%) and Clinton counties (61%) than in Trump counties (51%). The belief in a secret Biden vote is somewhat more prevalent in Trump counties (32%) than Clinton counties (23%) and swing counties (23%).
The poll isn’t misleading as much as one might believe. Trump might have Biden right where he wants him.
Comparing the current results to a Monmouth University Poll taken in August 2016, Biden’s likely voter position is similar to Clinton’s summer standing in the swing counties, where she led Trump by 50% to 40%. Interestingly, Trump is doing slightly better now in core Clinton counties than four years ago, when he was polling at 21% to 67% for Clinton. Biden, however, is currently stronger than Clinton was in the president’s base counties, where she was polling at 27% to 60% for Trump.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
I’ll say it again...There is no secret ‘Trump vote’.
What there IS, is a mass of people in the US who have been bullied and intimidated into silence.
Bullying and intimidation can’t change what we do when we vote, though. We STILL own our ballot preferences!
This is just what happened in the last national election. The Liberals bullied Conservatives into a silence that permitted Hillary to believe SHE was the next President.
A lot of her reaction to losing is based on the false assumption she made, because of the silence of Conservatives. She just couldn’t believe what happened!
How so I know this? Well, I know a great many Conservatives just like myself, who wouldn’t DREAM of vocalizing our support for Trump, who wouldn’t DREAM of putting a Trump bumper sticker on our cars, who wouldn’t DREAM of putting a Trump sign in our yards, etc.
Speaking our mind with relatives or with co workers, would invite some very nasty and very negative consequences. Putting out a yard sign or a bumper sticker on our car would be a guarantee of immediate and destructive vandalism to our property … not to mention the likelihood of personal attack.
There is NO ‘secret’ support for Trump.... it’s just quiet, steady support and cold resolve...like grown ups with unruly children.
“they” are making it tougher to find the innards of it these polls...in 2015\2016 we gutted them for oversampling RATS.
Here we go again.
401 people surveyed drawn from a list of registered voters.(Note actual registered party vs. self reported party)
Results are ‘weighted” whatever that means.
Party Registration
39% Republican
14% Other/none
47% Democrat
Self-Reported Party
35% Republican
29% Independent
35% Democrat
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_pa_071520.pdf/
When polling, if you throw in the fact that Biden would be the oldest President and there is concern that he has dementia, would you still vote for him? That’s what they need to ask Independents.
Better get asbestos plywood
quiet, steady support and cold resolve...like grown ups with unruly children....
That is what this election will be.
Antifa punks vs. American patriots.
Communism vs. Capitalism.
Slavery vs. Freedom.
There is no secret Trump support. We are just not answering and to fill out the survey universe they are asking more Democrats. The recent survey done by an English paper showed Trump supporters are 35 points more enthusiastic and this was the third 31 + gap in Trump’s favor so where is the “Secret?”
Zogby found just 77% African American support for Biden which is a disaster so where is the “secret?”
The English paper found that while Evangelicals supported Trump 81% in 2016 they support him 90% today so where is the “secret?” There are many more “secrets” but you get the drift.
This just silly Democrats trying to play make believe.
I suppose the silent majority is now invisible, too.
It’s not such a secret, it’s just that people do not cooperate with pollsters.
It’s no secret, all you have to do is talk to people beyond the beltway.
Interesting... I no longer pay attention to polls. While I’ve always been skeptical of their methodology, the 2016 election was the last straw.
As I posted in 2016, I travel outside the state a lot and I saw vastly more TRUMP/MAGA signs than I did Hillary signs. Two weeks ago - the 4th of July weekend, my wife and I drove from PA to Ocean City, MD, and circumvented DC on the way. I saw hundreds of TRUMP signs, flags, bumper stickers, homemade billboards, etc., and NOT ONE SINGLE BIDEN campaign item of any type - even on I-495, the DC Beltway. If we have an honest, open election, Trump will win in an historic landslide.
My concern remains vote fraud of biblical proportions and of such a scale that it’ll be difficult to counteract.
Trump has to win by 150,000 votes in the swing states or the democrats will steal it..they were asleep last time...Hillary was a 92 percenter
If the riots keep up Trump wins?????
“Don’t get complacent. Don’t make any assumptions about a “secret Trump vote.” Don’t assume polls showing a Biden lead are “biased and inaccurate.” Don’t assume polls showing President Trump with a lead are proof of an upcoming landslide victory. Take nothing for granted. We need to treat this election as a dogfight every step of the way, right up until the polls close on election day. We need to fight for every vote, get to the polls, and bring as many people as possible with us. Leave nothing to chance.”
This needs to be said again and again, and posted on every “Trump’s bound to win” thread. President Trump is going to be facing voter fraud and media bias such as has never been seen in this country. It will take a landslide’s worth of votes to overcome these disadvantages.
Remember, Obama got elected, twice. Don’t count on the general public having any sense.
And hope you will not have to appear in the Allstate Insurance TV ads.
"All of it gone. My home, our mementoes, the memories of so many years. Gone. A charred basement with burned out embers. But Allstate was there. When I get out of the Motel 6 in 7-8 months after the rebuilding I'll thank them again. Police let me go and dropped all charges after a week when they found evidence against the real BLM arsons."
Absolutely true. We need to say this daily. Good post.
2016 Trump vs Clinton:
Biden's lead is bigger, more enduring, and more consistent.
How was the Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump chart in July 2016?
Worst case around a 6% difference, as opposed to a 9-10% difference now.
What place is this and when was this rally?
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