Posted on 07/09/2020 2:49:18 AM PDT by USA Conservative
President Donald Trump has a 91 per cent chance of winning the November 2020 election, according to a political science professor who has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday.
Mr Norpoth told the outlet that his model, which he curated in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.
The model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests and placing an emphasis on how much enthusiasm candidates are able to generate early in the nominating process, the professor said.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Mr Norpoth said.
If the prediction is correct, former vice president Joe Biden is placed at a severe disadvantage due to losses in his party’s first two presidential nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The professor also said the model, which predicted Mr Trump’s election in 2016, worked partially by discounting opinion surveys.
“Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Hillary Clinton a certain victory,” he said.
The prediction comes as a number other election models have suggested that Mr Trump will lose to Mr Biden as a result of a number of factors including the ongoing pandemic.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Hope he’s right and the percentage does fit in well with the rate of reelection of any incumbent politician. That percentage of reelection is in the mid 90s. Trump is different in the respect that every global cannon on the planet is trained against him, and us. That makes this election day different.
But DEM ‘war games’ insists that Trump will cheat...../s
Some models show Biden winning by 115%?
Forget models. Forget polls. Go out and vote, folks.
JoMa
Which one did he get wrong?
https://apps.npr.org/elections20-primaries/states/NJ.html
Looking for NJ primary turnout numbers, all I could find to compare were the Senate tallies.
About 400K Dem. and 180K Rep.
Have to do better to gin up turnout, IMHO
Does his model correct for massive voter fraud?
Hoping and praying he’s right.
However,being in the Gay State (Massachusetts) my Presidential vote has only helped the winner...in terms of the Electoral College vote...twice.In 1980 and 1984.
Those were the only two years...since 1960...that the Republican candidate carried this state.
Trump WILL WIN in a LANDSLIDE.
The ‘world’ is angry they can’t rip off the US anymore by paying off democrat traitors like Biden’s family and friends. And the family and friends of most of the other democrats, friends of Epstein, and other assorted human filth.
The only model that counts is election day. Get out and vote!
“Have to do better to gin up turnout, IMHO”
This is NJ and NJ is 90% Liberal.
“About 400K Dem. and 180K Rep.
Have to do better to gin up turnout, IMHO”
—
I’d write it off as Dem.
2016:
Democratic Hillary Clinton 2,148,278 55.45%
Republican Donald Trump 1,601,933 41.35%
Trump supporters & voters in New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, etc. haul your butts to the POTUS, Donald J. Trump Outdoor Political Rally this coming Saturday, July 11th, 2020 to the civilian/military,airfield in Portsmouth, New Hampshire (Portsmouth International Airport, Pease). Starts at 8:00 PM (EDT). Hangar doors open at 4:00 PM (EDT) Ample parking and rally viewer space for tens of thousands of “Trumpie” people!!
www.donaldjtrump.com for (2) free tickets to attend. Be there for this save the Nation Republic from the Democrat Party facist, socialist, communist Rally!!! The current Democrat “TRAITOR” Political party must be 100% politically destroyed!!! Be there!!! Support our Great POTUS, Trump!!!
Gropin’ Joe handed Team Trump more ammunition when he came out yesterday (?) and said he is for some defunding of the police. I guess pressure from left-wing wackos was too strong. The Dems are determined to double down on that stupid campaign issue.
Oh, don’t forget that Bernie just said Joe could be the most progressive President since FDR. Yeah, that’s a winning issue!
The R’s need to hold the Senate and take back the house.
I’m guessing the “Biden is up by double digits” theme isn’t suppressing conservative votes enough, so it’s time to switch to the “Trump is so far ahead, you don’t even have to bother to show up to vote” theme.
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