I’ve seen multiple cases wherein the patients are diagnosed with relatively mild symptoms, then return ~6 days later in multi-organ failure. With incubation to onset of symptoms ~5-6 days, the critical deterioration we’ve seen occurs in another 6 days, around day 12.
Is that mainly due to Sepsis?
Also, is the Genentech drug Actemra helping at that stage?
I am not disagreeing with your assessment — I think your observation I likely valid. The literature is reporting mean time to critical illness is onset of symptoms +1.3 days (So mean time is 6.4 days to ICU). The most recent increase I have seen has been pretty much in line with this. Currently there are 54 patients in my hospital with coVID NOT in the ICU. They have been sitting out on the floor with no signs of deterioration. My feeling is that a bunch of hospitals are capitalizing on the U07.1 DRG being paid regardless if the patient is insured. Just a feeling.
What I am not seeing is a giant increase in critically ill or ventilated patients. In the last 3 weeks we have only had 2 - 3 ventilated patients added to our ICU census and we are not getting a lot worse....
I suppose the next week will be interesting.