Posted on 06/29/2020 3:28:12 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
I see...
Exactly what are you referring to when you say "your chances of dying"? If I am never exposed to Covid-19, I have zero risk of dying from it. But if I am exposed, my risk of death suddenly increases to over 2%. Among people who are confirmed with disease, the risk of dying if they have Covid-19 is higher than the risk of dying from influenza for all age groups except those 19 years and younger. (This is based on Maryland numbers only; death rates by age group may vary in other areas.)
BTW your claim of our being 74 times more likely to catch the virus now rather than before is a totally bogus use of stats.
Actually, it is a perfectly valid use of stats. Your risk of catching a disease is a direct function of its prevalence in the population. Back on Mar 13, a total of 137,445 people in the world were diagnosed with Covid-19. Today, 10,302,867 people have been diagnosed. That is 75 times more people now than on Mar 13. Although, as I look at it, I realize I used the wrong number; I should have calculated using active cases only. So, there were 62,578 active cases on Mar 13, and now there are 4,561,441 active cases--which is a 73 fold increase. (Note that changing the numbers I calculated did not greatly change the outcome.) Ergo, you are 73 times more likely to catch Covid-19 now than you were 3.5 months ago.
Besides that you have NO idea how many cases there were on March 13 since we have all been hearing how the case count is likely 20x or more higher than has been reported.
I have not been hearing that. What I have been hearing is that some people who do not understand the limits of antibody testing were rushing to announce that they had found that there were 90 times as many Covid-19 cases as anyone though because they found antibodies. (Insert your own ridiculously high number in place of "90.") But you cannot use antibody testing as an indicator of past infection for a virus like Covid-19, because there are already several circulating strains of coronavirus and the antibodies cannot distinguish between them. While I can accept that some cases could have been missed early on before tests to detect actual virus became widely available, what I do not accept are wildly inflated claims of infections based on dubious antibody tests. The only way you can reliably test for past infection is by testing for lingering presence of viral RNA. I do not know how long Covid-19 RNA would remain in the body; I know that Ebola RNA has been detected in patients up to 9 months after recovery, but that tells me little about how long Covid-19 RNA remains.
This serves to drastically reduce the death rate and the DEATH rate, dear DR is the ONLY thing important here.
The only reliable calculation of the death rate is based on the total number of confirmed deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases, times 100 to make it a percent. This is the method I use, as well as the WHO, the CDC, the Johns Hopkins team, and every other public health agency. No reputable public health agency would pad the numbers with unconfirmed guesstimates of cases to artificially lower the death rate for political purposes.
Millions? Is that why there are millions dead?
As of today:
Texas population: ~29,000,000
Covid-19 deaths in TX: 2416
2416/29,000,000 is 1 death per 12,003 residents.
For Florida:
3447 deaths per 21,670,000 population is 1 death per 6287 residents.
Infectious diseases continue to spread over time, unless measures are taken to control the spread. So, very concerning.
“Back on Mar 13, a total of 137,445 people in the world were diagnosed”
I don’t give a damn how many were “diagnosed”. Nowhere near an accurate death rate can be determined until the real number of infections is known and we don’t and may never know that.
How is this for a stat? When China Virus testing first started, the very first positive case was recorded and died the same day/ hour or minute after he tested positive. So what is the death rate? Why it is 100%, one positive test who died indicates if you get it you die. This is why your stats are useless.
Look, if you want to live in your basement in a closet thaen do so but requiring millions of peiople whose chance of anything serious happening to them if they get the virus being less than infintesimal is plain stupid, dangerous and destructive.
We have been had and if you can’t see mthe BS being thrown around, the bald face contradictions and hypocricy then you have a serious problem.
https://covidtracking.com/data
Subscribe to your state for daily updates
TX Yesterday reported deaths = 10
Daily average past 7 days: 30
.34 deaths per million
Rank among states: 31
Test results reported 1.8 million
US deaths: 332 -60%
Daily avg past 7 days : 808
Test results reported 31.5 million
What’s really happening: from a hospital executive
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1277773122301804546
Lotta pos tests, younger people, mildly ill, treatment is 3-5 days outpatient
Many ICU patients are nonCovid, severely ill because they delayed treatment for non Covid illnesses during past 3 months
Hospitals ,under pressure to label every patient as Covid for monetary reasons
It looks like that “.34 deaths per million” is the number of deaths over the past week as a proportion of population. That is a different metric than what I have been looking at. I’m more concerned with case fatality rates than the population fatality rate. When there are more cases (and the number of cases continues to grow), the population fatality rate will increase. That isn’t necessarily what happens with case fatality rates—more cases does not automatically translate to a higher case fatality rate.
Texas has 163,060 confirmed cases, 2455 deaths, and 84,818 recoveries. This is a death rate of 1.5%, recovery rate of 52.0%, and total of 53.5% resolved cases.
Also, I have no idea where the notion that hospitals are diagnosing everything as Covid-19 came from. They’re going to get paid for diagnosing/treating patients regardless of the diagnosis. Furthermore, every Covid-19 diagnosis is resource-intensive for the hospital, which is hardly an ideal way to cut costs to make the bean counters happy.
In Maryland, there are two categories for Covid-19 deaths: those that are confirmed by laboratory testing, and those which are presumptive pending laboratory test results. I assume that other states are keeping similar categories.
A case fatality rate, is, by definition, the rate of deaths occurring in diagnosed cases. It cannot be anything other.
It is, in fact, extremely dangerous to deem on the basis of no data that the number of infections is 50, 100, 1000 (pick a number) times as high as the number of cases. That kind of belief leads people to behave in ways that only contribute to the spread of virus. The effects of that belief can be seen in the recent jump in cases. Today, there were 45,956 new Covid-19 cases in the US--the biggest single-day jump there has been yet during this pandemic, in what has been a record-breaking week of new case growth. This is not good.
Unfortunately, people like you still won't believe it's serious until it affects you or someone close to you. And until then, you'll continue to do everything you can to undermine the public health messaging.
Everything you say is absolutely wrongheaded and disengenuous.
You actually seem incapable of grasping the most simple of common sense realism. You seem to ignore the actual facts in evidence so desperate are you to spread the “fear porn” puked out by the biased media.
I won’t again waste my time explaining how the death rate is properly figured because you are incapable of grasping it in your zeal at being a chicken little.
According to the CDC the actual # of cases in America is likely close to 24 MILLION and with the death total of 127000 that leaves us with an approximate death rate of around .005 (127,000/24,000,000).
Almost 600,000 tests every day being done will show many more cases and the great majority of them are asymptomatic and in the youger population a group whose instances of death or even serious illness is almost nonexistent.
This thing is over, there will be no more nation wide lock downs because the folks will simply ignore it and the power mad authorities will be able to do nothing about it. Even law enforcement officials are publicly refusing to honor the illegal lockdowns.
Go peddle your fear mongering on the DU site, it’s where you belong.
I think the “ metric” you are choosing goes something like this ( very simplified)
10 people develop a disease. 5 die. Therefore the disease has a 50% mortality rate.
The epidemiologist “metric” is
1,000,000 people are exposed to a disease ( based on testing results)
10 people develop the disease.
5 die.
The mortality rate is, therefore, for the population of a million people, almost infinitely small....And does not merit panic, social and economic destruction
So which metric is being used by the mass MEdia and why?
And to what effect?
I don't even pay attention to the media. I try to counter the misinformation that you and others are spreading because I want the virus to be gone so that we can return to normal life as quickly as possible. And that isn't happening as long as people like you are set on spreading misinformation intended to cause people to behave in ways that guarantee the continued spread of Covid-19.
According to the CDC the actual # of cases in America is likely close to 24 MILLION and with the death total of 127000 that leaves us with an approximate death rate of around .005 (127,000/24,000,000).
Don't post numbers that are easily refuted. Here is a screenshot of the CDC Coronavirus Disease 2019 website, which shows the CDC's case count:
Hmm, not very different than the numbers I have reported and keep track of every day.
Almost 600,000 tests every day being done will show many more cases and the great majority of them are asymptomatic and in the youger population a group whose instances of death or even serious illness is almost nonexistent.
What the tests are showing is that we are not actually missing a lot of cases. The higher the percentage of positive tests, the more likely it is that cases are being missed. Increased testing should NOT result in significant increases of positive results as long as the testing is adequate to catch a significant majority of cases. Right now, the positive rate of Covid-19 tests is 9%, according to the CDC.
This thing is over, there will be no more nation wide lock downs because the folks will simply ignore it and the power mad authorities will be able to do nothing about it.
Attitudes like that are our guarantee that we are in this for the long haul. Your desire to pretend Covid-19 is not a threat, that it is "over" even though case growth is higher now than it has ever been, that the risk of death is negligible, etc., means that you are doing nothing to stop its spread. And because of people like you, we're going to have to continue the quarantines, the lock-downs, and everything else we've been doing to try to contain the pandemic.
LOL, gimmee a break! I clearly said ESTIMATED cases.
CDC Head Estimates U.S. Coronavirus Cases Might be 10 Times Higher Than Data Show.
https://time.com/5859790/cdc-coronavirus-estimates/
Go peddle your bullsh*t at the DU where you belong.
As I have already explained before, antibodies can’t tell the difference between related viruses. People catch colds caused by coronaviruses. They get antibodies, too. Adding the number of people who have colds to the Covid-19 case counts does not actually tell us a thing about Covid-19.
Are you being paid by the Chinese to spread misinformation designed to get people to behave in ways that guarantee they will continue to spread Covid-19? There were 50,049 cases in the last 24 hours, the biggest growth EVER. We’re definitely back in exponential growth territory, after having made so much progress to contain the virus. Considering the health care and economic impacts of a deadly virus spreading uncontrollably, your Chinese masters must be SO proud of you. You should tell them you need a raise for being so good at undermining the public health efforts.
BS! Talk to me about rate of death and than talk to me about the demographics of these deaths and while you arvirus season showed up and in some yrs KILLED close to e at it explain why in past years when upwards of 100,000 Americans died from flu no big deal was made?
In other yrs children died...all age groups were affected and if ever there was a call for a “lockdown” that was it. Now with the China Virus we KNOW wherenthe danger is and have known since January based on information from Italy.
Frankly I don’t give a tinkers damn how many people are infected by this Chop Suey Flu, what is important is where the risk is highest and what can be done to mitigate those risks. Well, we KNOW who is at risk....where 80% of DEATHS occur and frankly it doesn’t matter if people who have literally zero chance of dying or even showing symptons contract this disease.
Go ahead and continue with your Fauci act of fear porn while the erest of the nation finally realizes the depth to which people like you have covered us with bullsh*t.
Hahahaha. I’m a duped deplorable. Come get some then.
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