COVID-19 Update - 06/24/2020

My own workup | 06/24/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 98

As of 06/23/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information²
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Second Wave?

Like it or not, the excuses for the rise in New Cases have disappeared and
now we're left with rising numbers of them, and an increasing trend of
rising percentages of positive testing.

The positive testing perentages fluctuate from day to day, blips up, blips down,
but now we've risen to the upper 6.00% range with a daily figure of 6.73%
yesterday. That is not good. We'll see the chart below, and we're definitely
climbing back up in this category.

Brazil is Popping It's Head Back Above 40k Again

Brazil generally turns in about 26k per day in New Cases. Recently I mentioned
this on a day when there were astronomical figures reporting out. Again today
it could be stated that it is reporting as much as 10,000 over it's average
reporting day. Not sure what's going on there. I attributed the last time to
a housekeeping issue. Not so sure now.

It is erratic.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

The number of Declared New Cases rose yesterday. Two factors impacting the
final number of new cases, were elevated testing again, and elevated
positives for testing. (6.73%)

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active cases are once again going up at an increased clip. You can check out
the progression there.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

Although we are still dropping here, the drop has slowed to a snail's pace.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Our active cases have gone on the rise again. We do need to remind ourselves
that Declared Numbers do not necessarily mean a higher rate of infection. If
the postives are about the same, we're just finding more people, not a higher
infection level.

In the last day or so, the positive percentage in testing has risen, so we do
have in elevated sector of the populace that is infected. Some places will be
higher than others. Some areas will not be bad, and folks should take
precautions to try and keep things that way.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that.

The single day positive test percentage rose again yesterday. This number
fluctuates daily, but it rose enough for us to be concerned.

The red three day average line here, is now also showing signs of being on the
move. I hope that this isn't a predictor of things to come, but I am afraid
it is. Some folks are very casual in their efforts to combat the spread of
this disease, and that will cost all of us.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

Here we see Active and Resolved lines acting as if a magnetic polarity were
pushing them apart. Resolve your differences and overlap you two!

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

On the Global Scene outside China, I did see a possible reason to discount the
declared New Cases. Brazil that has been averaging around 26k reported out
40k yesterday. That may be 10,000 higher than normal, and I'm not sure why it
jumped like that on one day.

Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

For your review...

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

This indicator (that middle number) rose back up yesterday. It is way too
high. Remember, the US has been broken out from the global scene here and
China has also.

I reasoned that the numbers were fairly on the level yesterday, but Brazil may
have reported out 10k more than normal for them. Clerical? I don't know.
Not liking the direction of our blue columns.

This chart reflects some growing numbers domestically. The unrest and the
folks who refuse to follow safety precautions are having an impact.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

That single day line is active, up and down. Please do not take much from
these Chart single day lines today.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Everyone including the U. K. seems to be flattening out there. Hope they
can keep that up, or begin to slide back down soon.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden still remains a hot topic, and it's tragectory IS NOT looking good
on that Chart. In it's own group, it's not good at all. If you compare it
to some European Nations, it looks no worse.

Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

Brazil took both top spots yesterday. I beleive it's reporting out about
10k higher than normal here. It was runninga bout 26.5K last average figure
I came up with.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.009% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

The number of Resolved Cases percentage reversed course a few days ago, but it
is on track again now. We should hit the 60% level by the 25th to the 26th. I
made that prediction the other day, and it may be more realistic to move that
back to the 27th or 28th. We'll see.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

For your review...

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

We have been seeing some real improvement in the number of Fatalities reported
out each day. The figure for yesterday was larger than the one for the
Tuesday the week before, but only by 1.88%. We are still on track here.

I really like the way we're looking there.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

Look at those deminishing increase percentages. In the last 18 days, we have
had only one day above 1,000 Fatalities, and those percentages of growth are
very minimal.

It's pretty easy to spot the weekly cycles isn't it..

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

We're still slipping here, and I'm looking forward to better numbers.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

It's hard to belive there are that many nations with massive numbers.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Yesterdays numbere were another record for the day of the week. I've not
been touching on that recently, since 97%+ reporting days set new records
these days. I hope this isn't a natural progression week, or Thursday and
Friday will be brutal. Today could well be brutal too.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Look at that. We have come down from 43rd, and now reside at 26.

That's the best we've reported out as so far, and we seem to be resting up
here for a while. Testing has been ramping up, so that was just a figure
of speech about being 26th for three days now.

Progress...

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁴,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

[T. P. Pole]

Thanks for doing this every day.

[buckalfa]

👍👍👍👍👍

[Presbyterian Reporter]

I have been posting for several days that 90% of the increase in Florida cases is among the less than age 65 population.

Today I dug deeper into the numbers.

Florida reported 5437 new cases yesterday.

The age group 15 to 34 accounted for 2,564 of those new cases.

To put that into perspective, since the beginning of the China virus infections in Florida, exactly 8% of the 15 to 34 age group have been hospitalized and exactly 1% of the 15 to 34 age group have died.

What we are witnessing in Florida is a surge in cases among the younger population. The younger population has grown weary of the ‘stay at home’ mandates are back to a normal lifestyle.

All this being said, it still makes sense for the elderly and those with underlying conditions to stay at home while the virus spreads through the younger folks.

[CharleysPride]

Another day of terrible numbers, crawling up to nearly 40K new infections.

All states coming over 1K outside of California (classify as you will) are in the Sun belt.

[kaktuskid]

Apparently in Arizona they are diddling with the numbers.

[kaktuskid]

Thank you Blank Lies Matter protesters

[CharleysPride]

“Thank you Blank Lies Matter protesters”

WOW!

What a witty and devastating comment!

You got me by the shorties, lady.

I surrender to your obvious superior wit and intellect — just please — don’t hurt me!

lol

[gas_dr]

And yet deaths continue to trend downward. This equals

1. Overtesting
2. Attenuating virus
3. Virus that was not that bad to begin with

[amorphous]

June 24:

•Blue line represents projected death totals.
•Yellow line is actual death totals based on WorldofMeters.info data.
•Purple line is actual case numbers offset by 14 days.
•Red line represents projected daily deaths.
•Black extension lines are trend lines.

[henkster]

Agree with you 100% on points 1 & 2. We’ll disagree on point 3. The testing is up, the numbers are up. There is a spike in cases, but it is among a younger slice of the demographic. To which I say “Good.” Should have happened two months ago. Let the young get it and get over it, so we can get to herd immunity. On this daily thread, I always look at three figures: New positive tests, active hospitalizations, and deaths. The new positive cases are up, but the hospitalizations remain the same and the deaths are dropping.

As far as the virus not being that bad to begin with, my 97 year old aunt would disagree with you. But she can’t.

She died from it six weeks ago.

[gas_dr]

First of all, I am so sorry for your lose, it is horrible no matter what the condition. I think one of the things that I have learned in medicine is that the elderly are vulnerable to just about anything.

I am so sad that your beloved aunt passed, and we need to do literally everything we can to protect the elderly vulnerable while getting on with life with those who are quite literally at no risk

I will keep you in my prayers and wish you all the best.

[CJ Wolf]

78 grandpop on the other side of the family succumbed too. None of his kids or grandkids could attend the funeral. was in the middle of April. RIP pop pop bd, he was a good man.

[DoughtyOne]

d":^)

[DoughtyOne]

I pretty much agree. Two things come to mind though. These
folks are not wearing masks. They are also carriers. They
go out and bring things back into the home. Some of the
folks at home are vulnerable.

[DoughtyOne]

Yeah, I don’t like the direction of this either.

The sad things is, we went through all that lock-down, and
it was working. Then as soon as folks were allowed to go
back out it was to heck with the distancing and the masks.

So here we are. Brillian! All that work for nothing.

If people would have been careful, we wouldn’t be facing
anything like what we are right now. > IMO

[DoughtyOne]

Thank you for your work-up there.

[DoughtyOne]

There’s only one thing I mind about elevated testing.

Test all you want, but if you uncover twice as many positives
by testing twice as much as usual, be sure to disclose that.
Don’t blame it on the spread of the disease.

If you find elevated positive testing percentages, be sure
to disclose that as well.

If we look back at the immediate skyrocketing of the
disease up until we sheltered in place, it’s crystal
clear the sheltering in place really slowed the disease.

I had hoped we would see folks be careful about taking
precautions after us all having to be in the home for
several months. Then the braintrusts got out there
and refused to social distance and wear masks.

Well, here we are. Most of the benefits of sheltering
in place are going to be unraveled now in short order.

I also expected some increase in the disease after we
opened up, but we’re headed toward doubling the numbers
in about a week and a half.

You almost have to work at it to do that much damage.

[DoughtyOne]

Sorry to hear of your family losses.

If I missed anyone else, same goes for you.

Sorry to see good people lost.