Yes India might be stupid enough to launch nukes, but even there they are outnumbered at least 2-1, and China has proven anti missile defenses.
India has nothing.
Yes China would take a beating if it went nuclear, but India, would literally no longer exist as a nation state if it does.
Not to mention, if China and India were to go hot, It’s hard not to believe Pakistan would not take advantage of the situation and attack India from the west as well, provided they knew China would not act against them for it.
Were I in charge and ordered to plan a strike, I’d make sure Pakistan goes away as well. In for a penny, etc.
China has missile defenses, but they’re oriented towards their eastern coast at the moment, and built to deal with slow American cruise missiles or generic ballistic missiles. The BraMos is neither and it’s out of the engagement envelope for a lot of China’s systems. And the closest big target to India is a doozie - the Three Gorges Dam. Which, interestingly, doesn’t actually have much by way of air defenses...