Rush Limbaugh Show,M-F,12NOONPM-3PM,EDT,WOR AM/WMAL FM/WTIC AM,June 15-19,2020

The EIB Network ^ | June 15, 2020 | Rush Limbaugh

[Biggirl]

Good Morning/Afternoon,MEGAPrayersForRushHOPERushYouReturnTodayDITTOS!

[mylife]

[cnsmom]

Why should conservatives shed one drop of blood for the left. The Democrats want to rebuild Seattle and it will be zoned according to Democrat hierarchy. There was no other way to get rid of the homeless.

[bobby.223]

Rush looks great! Lime green shirt today!

[Deplorable American1776]

Can’t figure out a motive?? How about Anti American Morons!! I think that...

[Carriage Hill]

The demonKKKrat party/DNC Fake News media won’t let it happen. It’d be a bloodbath, and they couldn’t cover it up.

“The most insidious power the media has, is the power to ignore.” — Chris Plante, WMAL-DC

[Political Junkie Too]

All:

I'm updating my election forecast model for 2020. I gave up midway through 2016 due to the absurdly false polls that were put out by the MSM. We'll see if they can do better this cycle. At least, there are sites like Statespoll.com that offer adjusted polls based on more reasonable turnout models that I will use.

That said, here is a preview:

Using the actual 2016 state by state results and applying a +/- 5% swing in votes, the following insights emerge as a starting point for future analysis:

• President Trump has a 58% probability of getting at least 270 Electoral College votes.
• The Democrats has a 40% probability of getting at least 270 Electoral College votes.
• The weighted average for President Trump is 276 Electoral College votes, with a 52.6% probability of getting more.
• The weighted average for the Democrat is 262 Electoral College votes, with a 47.5% of getting more.
• Critical states for President Trump:
  1. North Carolina (15 EV, Strong R) - 98.1% of the cases where Trump wins include North Carolina. It is a "must win" state. That's probably why the RNC chose to hold their convention there, and why the Democrat governor chose to play Covid politics with the RNC convention.
     • 10th on the Democrat list at 45.1%
  2. Arizona (11 EV, Strong R) - 93.1% of Trump wins include Arizona.
     • 11th on the Democrat list at 43.8%
  3. Florida (29 EV, Tilt R) - 92.3%. The RNC convention is being moved here.
     • 6th on the Democrat list at 82.0%
• Critical states for the Democrats:
  1. Colorado (9 EV, Strong D) - 99.8% of Democrat wins include Colorado.
     • 11th on Trump's list at 23.7%
  2. Nevada (6 EV, Lean D) - 99.3%.
     • 9th on Trump's list at 48.4%
  3. Maine (4 EV, Strong D) - 92.4%.
     • 10th on Trump's list at 36.9%
  4. Minnesota (10 EV, Lean D) - 92.4%.
     • 8th on Trump's list at 53.5%
• Top 10 Battleground States - states with the highest outcome uncertainty:
  1. Michigan (16 EV, Tilt R) - 82.7% uncertainty.
     • 78.0% critical for Trump.
     • 81.5% critical for Democrats.
  2. Wisconsin (10 EV, Tilt R) - 82.6% uncertainty.
     • 80.8% critical for Trump.
     • 74.1% critical for Democrats.
  3. Florida (29 EV, Tilt R) - 82.5% uncertainty.
     • 92.3% critical for Trump.
     • 82.0% critical for Democrats.
  4. Pennsylvania (20 EV, Tilt R) - 82.5% uncertainty.
     • 76.5% critical for Trump.
     • 73.2% critical for Democrats.
  5. New Hampshire (4 EV, Tilt D) - 81.3% uncertainty.
     • 68.6% critical for Trump.
     • 84.0% critical for Democrats.
  6. Arizona (11 EV, Strong R) - 77.1% uncertainty.
     • 93.1% critical for Trump.
     • 43.8% critical for Democrats.
  7. Minnesota (10 EV, Lean D) - 76.6% uncertainty.
     • 53.5% critical for Trump.
     • 92.4% critical for Democrats.
  8. North Carolina (15 EV, Strong R) - 75.5% uncertainty.
     • 98.1% critical for Trump.
     • 45.1% critical for Democrats.
  9. Nevada (6 EV, Lean D) - 72.2% uncertainty.
     • 48.4% critical for Trump.
     • 99.3% critical for Democrats.
  10. Maine (4 EV, Strong D) - 68.8% uncertainty.
      • 36.9% critical for Trump.
      • 92.4% critical for Democrats.

I will put out more reports as soon as the conventions pass and true candidate polling begins. I will also cross-post this report on related threads as appropriate.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Adding the Electoral College chart.

Democrat - 229						Toss-Up - 79				Trump - 230
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Tilt		Tilt		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	9	Colorado	10	Minnesota	4	New Hampshire	29	Florida			11	Arizona	9	Alabama
7	Connecticut	4	Maine	6	Nevada			16	Michigan			16	Georgia	3	Alaska
3	District of Columbia	5	New Mexico					20	Pennsylvania			6	Iowa	6	Arkansas
3	Delaware	13	Virginia					10	Wisconsin			15	North Carolina	4	Idaho
4	Hawaii											18	Ohio	11	Indiana
20	Illinois											38	Texas	6	Kansas
10	Maryland													8	Kentucky
11	Massachusetts													8	Louisiana
14	New Jersey													6	Mississippi
29	New York													10	Missouri
7	Oregon													3	Montana
4	Rhode Island													5	Nebraska
3	Vermont													3	North Dakota
12	Washington													7	Oklahoma
														9	South Carolina
														3	South Dakota
														11	Tennessee
														6	Utah
														5	West Virginia
														3	Wyoming
182		31		16		4		75		0		104		126

-PJ

[LonePalm]

Bonjour y'all! Laissez le bon Trump rouler!!!

In with the ping.

WWG1WGA

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

[Carriage Hill]

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[mylife]

Bonjouy

[mylife]

Go Beverly Beatty!

[mewzilla]

I bet Ms. Beatty has read Wayne Perryman...

[mewzilla]

Here’s a link with a video clip...

https://mobile.twitter.com/stillgray/status/1272644014240493568

[mylife]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1272643329952530432

[mylife]

White snowflake looks like she is crapping herself!

[mylife]

I was telling brother yesterday, I know tons of black folks who get it.
Most won’t speak out because the get labeled uncle tom’s.

[Carriage Hill]

“...Biden Crime Bill will make it a death penalty for everything except jaywalking...: at :50secs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcpO329xTGI

[Deplorable American1776]

Hello all.. Rush is on fire today...

[mylife]

https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[mylife]

The Clintons, virtue signaling with the Ashanti slavers..