All:
I'm updating my election forecast model for 2020. I gave up midway through 2016 due to the absurdly false polls that were put out by the MSM. We'll see if they can do better this cycle. At least, there are sites like Statespoll.com that offer adjusted polls based on more reasonable turnout models that I will use.
That said, here is a preview:
Using the actual 2016 state by state results and applying a +/- 5% swing in votes, the following insights emerge as a starting point for future analysis:
- President Trump has a 58% probability of getting at least 270 Electoral College votes.
- The Democrats has a 40% probability of getting at least 270 Electoral College votes.
- The weighted average for President Trump is 276 Electoral College votes, with a 52.6% probability of getting more.
- The weighted average for the Democrat is 262 Electoral College votes, with a 47.5% of getting more.
- Critical states for President Trump:
- North Carolina (15 EV, Strong R) - 98.1% of the cases where Trump wins include North Carolina. It is a "must win" state. That's probably why the RNC chose to hold their convention there, and why the Democrat governor chose to play Covid politics with the RNC convention.
- 10th on the Democrat list at 45.1%
- Arizona (11 EV, Strong R) - 93.1% of Trump wins include Arizona.
- 11th on the Democrat list at 43.8%
- Florida (29 EV, Tilt R) - 92.3%. The RNC convention is being moved here.
- 6th on the Democrat list at 82.0%
- Critical states for the Democrats:
- Colorado (9 EV, Strong D) - 99.8% of Democrat wins include Colorado.
- 11th on Trump's list at 23.7%
- Nevada (6 EV, Lean D) - 99.3%.
- 9th on Trump's list at 48.4%
- Maine (4 EV, Strong D) - 92.4%.
- 10th on Trump's list at 36.9%
- Minnesota (10 EV, Lean D) - 92.4%.
- 8th on Trump's list at 53.5%
- Top 10 Battleground States - states with the highest outcome uncertainty:
- Michigan (16 EV, Tilt R) - 82.7% uncertainty.
- 78.0% critical for Trump.
- 81.5% critical for Democrats.
- Wisconsin (10 EV, Tilt R) - 82.6% uncertainty.
- 80.8% critical for Trump.
- 74.1% critical for Democrats.
- Florida (29 EV, Tilt R) - 82.5% uncertainty.
- 92.3% critical for Trump.
- 82.0% critical for Democrats.
- Pennsylvania (20 EV, Tilt R) - 82.5% uncertainty.
- 76.5% critical for Trump.
- 73.2% critical for Democrats.
- New Hampshire (4 EV, Tilt D) - 81.3% uncertainty.
- 68.6% critical for Trump.
- 84.0% critical for Democrats.
- Arizona (11 EV, Strong R) - 77.1% uncertainty.
- 93.1% critical for Trump.
- 43.8% critical for Democrats.
- Minnesota (10 EV, Lean D) - 76.6% uncertainty.
- 53.5% critical for Trump.
- 92.4% critical for Democrats.
- North Carolina (15 EV, Strong R) - 75.5% uncertainty.
- 98.1% critical for Trump.
- 45.1% critical for Democrats.
- Nevada (6 EV, Lean D) - 72.2% uncertainty.
- 48.4% critical for Trump.
- 99.3% critical for Democrats.
- Maine (4 EV, Strong D) - 68.8% uncertainty.
- 36.9% critical for Trump.
- 92.4% critical for Democrats.
I will put out more reports as soon as the conventions pass and true candidate polling begins. I will also cross-post this report on related threads as appropriate.
-PJ