Which Pa. counties could be picked to move into the green phase of Wolf’s plan next?: Analysis

Pa. Gov. Tom Wolf has spent the last handful of Fridays moving counties from one phase to another within his color-coded coronavirus reopening plan.

Will more areas of the state be designated tomorrow to move forward to the least restrictive zone, the green one, as soon as next week?

If the trend continues, the answer is yes, as a number of counties have been in the yellow phase for 14 days, which is the minimum amount of time a location must spend there before it is eligible to move on to green.

Two weeks is hardly a maximum, though, as Erie and Perry counties, for example, have been in it for over and almost a month, respectively.

Pa. officials are using a number of models to determine who moves where and when. We’ve reviewed a couple of them to try and determine which counties Wolf could declare as ready to move to green as soon as next Friday, June 19, assuming he sticks to the plan of announcing the counties that can move forward one week before they actually do so.

For example, 12 counties, including Cumberland and York, entered the green phase at 12:01 a.m. today, June 12, after Wolf gave them the go-ahead to do so last Friday, June 5.

With that background out of the way, there are two other things to know about our predictions

First, they are based on two publically available documents. One is the state’s county-by-county dashboard, referred to often as dashboard in our analysis below, which was last updated June 5 and scores counties on four metrics:

Stable, decreasing, or low confirmed case count over the last two weeks compared to the two previous weeks; How contacts of confirmed cases are being modeled; Having 10 percent or less of the patients tested come back as positive over a 14-day period, and; Hospital beds being no more than 90 percent full

It must be noted that this information could change once the dashboard is updated again, but we have just it combined with the daily numbers released by the Department of Health to go off of in addition to the Carnegie Melon University county scorecard, which was last updated June 10. It grades counties on a sliding numerical scale that corresponds to colors: Green is good, white is neutral, orange is not so good, and red is bad. The six risk factors it assesses are 14-day case count, commuting, ICU capacity, re-opening contact, population density, and population age.

Keep the above two qualifiers in mind when reading the below breakdown of each county. We included only those that have been yellow for at least 14 days as of 12:01 a.m. on Friday, June 11 in our analysis, which rules out Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lackawanna, Lancaster, Lehigh, Northampton, Montgomery, Philadelphia.

More: As Pa. blooms from yellow to green, what will be the ‘new-normal’ way to visit public gardens?

Dauphin saw nearby Cumberland and York counties graduate to the green phase today, but it’s far from a slam dunk that it will be next in line. Dauphin missed the mark on cases declining or stabilizing over a 14-day period in last week’s dashboard, and had too many patients testing positive compared to the number of tests being done, as well. The latest CMU scorecard still shows concern in that area and also the risks related to population density and commuting. Case numbers continue to ping pong back and forth, too; some days, the number goes down, but others see it rise. You have about 35-to-1 odds of hitting the green zero in roulette. Dauphin has a slightly better chance of being among the latest green wave counties, but not much.

Erie was specifically flagged as a place of concern by Wolf and Levine last week because of a rising case count in the western Pa. county. It was the only metric not met in the county scorecard, but the numbers bounced up and down over recent days. Will that be enough for Wolf to give the green light? It’s a toss-up.

Franklin passed all four metrics in the state’s county dashboard last week, and only re-opening risk appears to be a problem, though perhaps not of grave concern, on the CMU scorecard. Residents of this county can feel good about their chances to go green in a week.

Huntingdon was a perfect four-for-four on last week’s dashboard, and on the CMU scorecard, it performed well in every category but re-opening contact risk, for which it had a value in the orange, or mild, range. This county has a good shot to be among the next counties going green.

Lebanon passed three of four metrics on the county dashboard as of last Friday, but on the most up-to-date CMU scorecard, it was flagged for nearly every risk category, with three red dots tied to 14-day case count, commuting risk, and ICU capacity risk. It’s hard to see this county moving to green next week.

Luzerne, which turned yellow on May 29 like many of the counties listed here, passed all four county dashboard metrics last week and its lone major concern on the CMU card is related to ICU capacity. It’s a good bet to go green next.

Monroe hit on the four metrics last week, but had concerns on the CMU scorecard about ICU capacity (red), plus reopening contact and population density risks (orange). We like Monroe’s chances to advance to green, but not as much as some of its counterparts listed here.

Perry met three of four metrics on June 5, but had rising case counts then. In the latest CMU scorecard, Perry only has a red score for the risk related to ICU capacity. Otherwise, the county received a neutral or green score. It has a strong chance to be among the green candidates this week, as long as the case counts have declined.

Pike has concerns related to ICU capacity, but otherwise, its metrics look strong to advance into the green.

Schuylkill passed the four-metric test last week, and its lone red dot on the CMU scorecard relates to the ICU capacity risk. It should be in this week’s list of counties moving to the green next.

Susquehanna only hit on three of four metrics last week, as it was flagged for not having a decreasing or stabilized number of new COVID-19 cases. On the CMU sheet, it had issues in that category, too, along with ICU capacity and re-opening contact risk, although that one was to a lesser degree. It’s seen improving numbers. A toss-up, but leaning toward the green.

These forecasts have been far from perfect (we had Cumberland staying yellow last week and were wrong), so if you don’t care for what you read above about where you live, there’s nothing wrong with holding out hope until an announcement is made.

That said, in our estimation, the most-likely counties to make the cut for green next include Franklin, Huntingdon, Luzerne, Perry, Pike, and Schuylkill. The second-tier would include Erie, Monroe, and Susquehanna, and the rest are longshots.

I will be posting this as a new thread:

https://www.senatorcorman.com/2020/06/10/senate-urges-court-to-enforce-resolution-ending-wolfs-emergency-declaration/

Senate Urges Court to Enforce Resolution Ending Wolf’s Emergency Declaration
Posted on Jun 10, 2020

(HARRISBURG) – Noting that Governor Wolf has refused to carry out his mandatory duty to act upon a resolution passed by the General Assembly that ends his emergency declaration, Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati (R-25) and Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman (R-34) today urged the state’s Commonwealth Court to “command” the Governor to terminate the declaration in accordance with the law.

“Governor Wolf’s failure to issue an executive order or proclamation ending the COVID-19 state of disaster emergency is unlawful, unreasonable, and without just cause,” the lawmakers said in the lawsuit filed today. “Governor Wolf has no discretion to refuse to issue an executive order or proclamation ending the COVID-19 state of disaster emergency.”

House Resolution 836, which was passed by the General Assembly with bi-partisan support, ends the executive order Wolf used to shut down employers, which was issued on March 6 and renewed on June 3. Scarnati and Corman said the governor has used the emergency declaration to change and suspend state laws, spend state and federal taxpayer dollars without the approval of the General Assembly and prevent shuttered businesses from reopening with new safety measures in place.

Governor Wolf said today in a news conference that he will not meet his obligation to issue an executive order or proclamation ending the COVID-19 state of disaster emergency.

According to the filing, “Section 7301(c) of the Emergency Management Services Code provides that if the General Assembly terminates a state of disaster emergency by concurrent resolution, then the Governor must immediately act, without discretion, to formally end his prior proclamation, stating as follows: ‘Thereupon, the Governor shall issue an executive order or proclamation ending the state of disaster emergency.’

“State law allows for the temporary suspension of civil liberties under dire circumstances,” Scarnati said. “We allowed the governor that time initially to flatten the curve. The need to suspend civil liberties in the interest of public health and safety has clearly passed.”

“By his own statement, the Governor has indicated that we are returning to a ‘new normal.’ Our laws do not provide for a Governor to create a ‘new normal,’ rather they provide for three separate but equal branches of government who have sworn to uphold the law,” Corman said. “To proceed to his ‘new normal’ without the legislative process and judicial review is wrong.”

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