[But when it comes, China’s war, like Japan’s before it, will be a race war. And race wars are the nastiest of them all.]
I’ve never subscribed to the theory that national leaders acquire land by force because of political or economic necessity, though. Publicly, they’ll justify these efforts that way, because the soldiers risking their lives and the loved ones they leave behind don’t want to hear that the war is being waged so their leaders can become famous for posterity. An Olympic athlete or a mountain climber can straightforwardly own up to his personal ambition because all that’s at risk is his personal investment in the task he has set for himself. A national leader cannot, for obvious reasons.
In fact, how do you distinguish between desperation and simple ambition? I don’t think you can. IMHO, Xi believes China has finally become strong enough to make these ventures the kind of bet a gambling man might take odds on. The shibboleth of our time is that war is hell, and no leader ever embarks on it except out of desperation. It’s, however, contrary to most of what we know about history. Leaders go to war for the same reason athletes compete in the Olympics - for personal fame and glory.
Kings go to war not because they need to, but because they want to. What they’re after is to make a name for themselves that will stand the test of time. By a country mile, the most famous Greek is Alexander, just as the most famous Roman is Caesar. That’s no accident. For better or for worse, conquerors will always have a special place in the history books. War is like a large scale hunt in which the guy who organized it and brought home a lot of trophies puts his name in neon lights for posterity.
Heck, even the losers become famous in ways nobody expected. Without his disastrous loss at Carrhae, just how well-known would the richest man in Rome, Crassus, be?
People who go on about Xi Jinping needing a distraction from domestic problems are ignoring everything we know about history. Chinese leaders are made in the mold of the leaders of powerful countries since probably the dawn of time - they did not sign up for their jobs to become glorified administrators/security people for accountants and financiers. They are building this wealth so they can construct an army to acquire fame for themselves. Alexander and Caesar accumulated wealth to fight wars. They didn’t fight wars to accumulate wealth. The end game was, first and foremost, eternal fame, or infamy, if they failed.
Saddam Hussein had all the money he needed. What he wanted was to be mentioned in the same breath as Saladin. Even in failure, he has placed his name in a more prominent position than any of his Arab contemporaries, with the exception of bin Laden.
I have always believed that when countries have too much to lose, then peace ensues. China has way too much to lose right now.