Posted on 06/08/2020 2:35:26 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
•Blue line represents projected death totals.
•Yellow line is actual death totals based on WorldofMeters.info data.
•Purple line is actual case numbers offset by 14 days.
•Red line represents projected daily deaths.
•Black extension lines are trend lines.
Country comparisions:
Clearly, you want to find fault with me because I say basically what the public health officials are saying. And you have decided that none of the experts know what they are talking about, therefore neither do I. It looks like your "information" comes from questionable sources like "Plandemic" and you don't want to see any real analysis because for some reason, you find the pseudoscience more appealing. Don't expect any real scientist to validate your belief in pseudoscience, it isn't going to happen.
You have demonstrated that you do not understand anything about infectious disease spread or microorganism biology.
Point by point:
In all your Ph.D. glory you picked an RO that has been demonstrated to be incorrect.
First, the correct term is R0--R zero, not R O. If you have evidence that the R0 I used for Covid-19 of 2.5 is not within the range of R0 values that have been published in various sources, provide that evidence. Don't just pull something out of your rear without any validation or evidence whatsoever. Furthermore, for the purpose of calculating the spread of the disease, the R0 I used is rather arbitrary. I used values of R0 = 2.5 with each round of infection lasting 9 days, but I could have just as easily used a different R0 and a different round of infection. Also, since you clearly believe that Covid-19 jumped from 27 cases in December to millions of (asymptomatic) cases in January--do you even have a clue that you are claiming that the R0 of Covid-19 is orders of magnitude higher than the R0 of any pathogen ever known?
Combine this with real scientific data that hypothesize that lock downs and mitigation make no difference — and you are stuck with that you are just plain wrong.
I think I already mentioned that "Plandemic" is not, in fact, a credible source of scientific information. The fact that you do not believe that lock downs, social distancing, etc., had any effect on the course of disease only illustrates further your lack of any understanding of disease transmission processes. Here is a paper on transmission of respiratory viruses: Transmission routes of respiratory viruses among humans. Read it and then explain, using real scientific terms and concepts, why you believe that mitigation measures have no effect. For bonus credit, explain how the 6 foot social distance was derived. Feel free to download and read any of the references linked within that paper.
As for your tenuous grasp on antibodies — there is CLEAR evidence as published by peer reviewed sources that previous corona virus infection confers cross immunity because they are in the same class. You have also not accounted for the two papers that demonstrate attenuation of the virus to less virulent and less severe
So you mention cross immunity of antibodies. Kudos for actually using a scientific term. Just wondering, do you also believe that an antibody test can be specific for Covid-19? Hint: if you do, then you do not understand the mechanism of cross immunity, or cross reactivity. Also, if you are going to mention "two papers", you should provide links to those papers. That is what people do when they actually have facts on their side. If they don't have facts, they only make vague mentions of supposed evidence--like you just did.
There have been numerous ARDS cases in January - April that were influenza negative and retrospectively were CoVID by clinical scenario (although I also insist that we should not include them in a confirmed data set). The fact of the matter is there are reports in the Deep South of entire schools being out in December for horrendous GI and respiratory syndromes.
Influenza like illnesses happen every year. That does *not* mean that Covid-19 has been circulating all of this time. It only means that the causative agent was not identified--either it is an influenza virus that does not show on the typical tests, or it is one of the many viruses that is not typically tested for. So there was a nasty respiratory virus circulating this winter, just like there is every winter. So what.
Combine this with OVERTESTING and the recent WHO statement that asymptomatic spread does NOT exist, and you end up with a big goose egg.
You do realize that this statement completely contradicts the narrative that somehow millions of people contracted Covid-19 simultaneously in January from the 27 people who got Covid-19 in December? "Overtesting" means that there are not cases being missed (a crucial component of the narrative). And asymptomatic transmission also means that there cannot be millions of people spreading Covid-19 while having no symptoms whatsoever (another crucial component of the narrative). So, which is it--a narrative in which millions of people suddenly contracted a disease that never existed in people before, and only a small fraction of them ever had symptoms? Or are the case counts published in various venues actually correct? It can't be both.
You said according to your work, we have 1% of the cases that we should have, leading to 200M cases in your estimation.
So, where are your calculations of the disease trajectory, using an R0 and infection rate that matches actual case data? Do you have any data on cases, deaths, recoveries? I've been keeping a spreadsheet that I have updated daily since Mar 13; where is your data? At the actual rate of growth in the first few months of the pandemic, we would reach 1 billion cases within the next couple of days. But we didn't; the rate of growth started to slow around Apr 11. As a result, the actual number of cases is 1% of what it would have been had nothing been done to alter the rate of growth.
What is your Ph.D in? What is the title of your dissertation. And for the love of all that is good, I would get your money back.
Oh, please. Do you seriously think I'm going to post anything here that would tell anyone my real identity? I'm quite please with my education, actually, at one of the top universities in the country and the world. They did a good job.
And please, please, please stop displaying your ignorance.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.