Posted on 06/01/2020 1:38:09 PM PDT by jonatron
The armies of the world's two most populous nations are locked in a tense face-off high in the Himalayas, which has the potential to escalate as they seek to further their strategic goals.
Officials quoted by the Indian media say thousands of Chinese troops have forced their way into the Galwan valley in Ladakh, in the disputed Kashmir region.
Indian leaders and military strategists have clearly been left stunned.
The reports say that in early May, Chinese forces put up tents, dug trenches and moved heavy equipment several kilometres inside what had been regarded by India as its territory. The move came after India built a road several hundred kilometres long connecting to a high-altitude forward air base which it reactivated in 2008.
The message from China appears clear to observers in Delhi - this is not a routine incursion.
"The situation is serious. The Chinese have come into territory which they themselves accepted as part of India. It has completely changed the status quo," says Ajai Shukla, an Indian military expert who served as a colonel in the army...
(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.com ...
China might get the first punch in, but India is used to operating in high mountains as they have for years against neighboring Pakistan.
It’s either China in an early knockout, or India in a 12-round decision. Take your pick.
China considers it the land version of the South China Sea, theirs for the taking?
China has been preparing for military strikes on India for months, putting into place military jets, tanks, heavy equipment, and now somewhere between 5-10K troops (and possibly more coming) pretty much at around the same time the Covid19 outbreak started. (Which further confirms to me that Covid19 was a deliberate biological attack meant to weaken its enemies).
China has taken key strategic positions on Indian territory that would make it difficult if not impossible for India to defend itself from holding that territory if China attacks, which is what I’ve seen Indian generals say on this issue.
Pakistan, which is clearly working together with China, is also making belligerent statements about India.
This is why India’s leaders have so far not done anything, because they are afraid of a war with Pakistan and China at the same time.
Here are some possibilities I see from this:
(1) China is reinforcing its strength along the border, putting India into a disadvantageous position, and also causing Pakistan to make belligerent statements, in order to protect itself from Indian attack in the event China and the USA go to war. Indeed, if Covid19 was a biological attack, then war with the United States is likely already planned. This war would involve China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and other various shithole countries.
OR (though both could still be true):
(2) China is currently preparing to invade India in order to distract from its local problems, which is why the Chinese media—which is usually violent and loud whenever China does something on Indian territory—is currently quiet and downplaying the threat from China. Because China is planning to invade India and seize huge amounts of territory.
As for India’s strength, India is not behaving like they can beat China and Pakistan in a war. News articles from India keep referencing the bad economy due to the Covid19 outbreak as a reason why India does not favor war at this time.
[China might get the first punch in, but India is used to operating in high mountains as they have for years against neighboring Pakistan.
It’s either China in an early knockout, or India in a 12-round decision. Take your pick.]
Russia and China are allies, so whichever way Russia goes will be approved by China.
The notion of a division between Russia and China has been a myth even since the staged Sino-Soviet split, per Russian defectors like Golitsyn and others who described Russia-Chinese conflict as a “scissors” aimed at countries like India and the United States.
Russia and China will always unite together in a war when it matters, and we should be prepared for that possibility. Hopefully Trump is preparing our military for that.
[Russia and China will always unite together in a war when it matters, and we should be prepared for that possibility. Hopefully Trump is preparing our military for that.]
I’ve never subscribed to the theory that national leaders acquire land by force because of political or economic necessity, though. Publicly, they’ll justify these efforts that way, because the soldiers risking their lives and the loved ones they leave behind don’t want to hear that the war is being waged so their leaders can become famous for posterity. An Olympic athlete or a mountain climber can straightforwardly own up to his personal ambition because all that’s at risk is his personal investment in the task he has set for himself. A national leader cannot, for obvious reasons.
In fact, how do you distinguish between desperation and simple ambition? I don’t think you can. IMHO, Xi believes China has finally become strong enough to make these ventures the kind of bet a gambling man might take odds on. The shibboleth of our time is that war is hell, and no leader ever embarks on it except out of desperation. It’s, however, contrary to most of what we know about history. Leaders go to war for the same reason athletes compete in the Olympics - for personal fame and glory.
Kings go to war not because they need to, but because they want to. What they’re after is to make a name for themselves that will stand the test of time. By a country mile, the most famous Greek is Alexander, just as the most famous Roman is Caesar. That’s no accident. For better or for worse, conquerors will always have a special place in the history books. War is like a large scale hunt in which the guy who organized it and brought home a lot of trophies puts his name in neon lights for posterity.
Heck, even the losers become famous in ways nobody expected. Without his disastrous loss at Carrhae, just how well-known would the richest man in Rome, Crassus, be?
People who go on about Xi Jinping needing a distraction from domestic problems are ignoring everything we know about history. Chinese leaders are made in the mold of the leaders of powerful countries since probably the dawn of time - they did not sign up for their jobs to become glorified administrators for accountants and financiers. They are building this wealth so they can construct an army to acquire fame for themselves. Alexander and Caesar accumulated wealth to fight wars. They didn’t fight wars to accumulate wealth. The end game was, first and foremost, eternal fame, or infamy, if they failed.
Saddam Hussein had all the money he needed. What he wanted was to be mentioned in the same breath as Saladin. Even in failure, he has placed his name in a more prominent position than any of his Arab contemporaries, with the exception of bin Laden.
Very good post. Thank you
You’ve fallen victim to one of the classic blunders! The most well-known is this: Never get involved in a land war in Asia.
bkmk
Lots of very rugged mountains?
Why??
One thing for sure, the squabbling countries fighting over this area will NEVER let the folks who actually LIVE there VOTE to see what THEY want to do!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashmir_conflict
WION trys to explain why China is doing all of these border incursions now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6WS-gj2pkE
Although there were many issues with the internet connection with the audio, during this conversation, the maps drawn by retired Col. Dinny, who served in this region, give great insight and detail to the Pangong lake area disputes.
https://youtu.be/b30_ftMpwLI?t=836
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