Just eye-balling it but, Built, building, and approved (Pre-Construction) is about 38% of the border. Much of the US Mexico border is pretty desolate. If they get just through the approved built this year it will be a huge step forward.
“Built, building, and approved (Pre-Construction) is about 38% of the border.”
They did a massive analysis on how to best secure the border. The President directed it on his fifth day in office (Executive Order 13767). OMB and CBO beat the hell out of the plan, until it was bulletproof - it was finally accepted by Congress in December of 2018.
Bottom line recommendations (for full operational control of the Southern Border): $25 billion, five years, 1,100 miles of barrier, thousands more full time positions, and several technology programs.
Barrier is just not needed in very rural areas, that are impassable to 4WD vehicles - technology will cover every mile of border, and can cover a band many miles deep from the border (both sides) as well.
So 1,100 miles of barrier - some of which is probably secondary barrier (double layer), so less than 1,100 miles of border with barrier.
221 miles of pre-existing barrier is assessed as effective, so about 900 more is needed. 731 is in the current program (”Built, building, and approved”), leaving about 150 more miles of barrier needed. The $3.6 billion in FY20 Military Construction funds has not yet been transferred by DoD, and is not yet reflected in the current program - that should be enough to credibly complete the remaining 150 mile requirement ($24 million per mile).
What this means, is that enough money has already been designated by the Trump Administration for the full barrier requirement in the Comprehensive Plan. They are on track to have the full amount of money, for the full requirement of barrier on contract, with the funds obligated, by the end of the year. Contractors will be working feverishly through 2021 to deliver their finished product, but the Government’s main tasks of defining requirements, acquiring land, paying the bill and contracting; will be complete.
Also, a tsunami of technology is rolling out this year and next, that will transform the whole length of the border.
And some areas of the border are so remote and difficult that there is little traffic, what I have read. Add the walls, and what traffic there is, gets funneled into smaller areas, which make it much easier for BP to get ‘em. And now with covid and the other measures Trump has put in place. boot ‘em back out straight away.
“If they get just through the approved built this year it will be a huge step forward.”
The pareto principle applies to the Southern Border - 80% of the illegal traffic crosses though only 20% of the mileage of the border, and pretty much always has (the border cities, and the Rio Grande Valley, a few trails and rivers).
So the top 400 miles of the priority list, covers (actually more than) 80% of historical illegal traffic.
Beyond those well worn routes, there are feasible, but less favorable alternative routes, that must be blocked, or traffic will simply divert.
But when we start getting 700 miles down the priority list, the nature of the alternative routes remaining becomes significantly qualitatively more difficult. No more will it be like sprinting across a street or a football field, and hopping a fence through a backyard, or like an hours stroll through the park. Instead the nature of the crossing will become more like a marathon, or worse - walking all day, and spending the night sleeping rough. Not something that a lot of the population is really up for.
The “disappearing time”, during which detected intruders can still be tracked, goes from minutes up to many hours, or a day or more. Out there, reliable detection, tracking and interception capability count for much more, than the few additional minutes required to employ a ladder and rope. It is a different kind of a contest.
Barrier is really needed in urbanized environments and to stop vehicles. In remote areas, technology and response capability (road access, riverine and aerial assets) are more important than barrier.