Posted on 05/25/2020 3:19:42 AM PDT by karpov
We use micro data on earnings together with the details of each state’s UI system under the CARES Act to compute the entire distribution of current UI benefits. The median replacement rate is 134%. Two-thirds of UI eligible workers can receive benefits which exceed lost earnings and one-fifth can receive benefits at least double lost earnings. There is sizable variation in the effects of the CARES Act across occupations and states, with important distributional consequences. We show how alternative UI expansion policies would change the distribution of UI benefits and thus affect resulting liquidity provision, progressivity, and labor supply incentives.
(Excerpt) Read more at bfi.uchicago.edu ...
Under ‘normal’ conditions, a president would not be re-elected under high unemployment conditions. HOWEVER, what exactly is it that Joe Biden can ‘promise’ to restore the market, industry, and jobs? Based on that reality....you can only go toward Trump.
You could even use the next five Democrats after Joe (Bernie, Warren, etc)...with no real potential plan beyond chatter that you’d hear from a 5th-grade student.
well it ends at the end of july...the ridiculous 600 a week.
and Rs won’t renew it.
and yes I do believe mitch when he says it’s not gonna happen
and Trump wouldn’t sign it
so early august folks will be back to their small state checks
600 extra was stupid to begin with
they were low skill low pay jobs mostly
I posted this a few days ago:
“I’ve got news for you. DJT will sign a bill extending the unemployment benefits. Take a look at this chart:
https://twitter.com/ernietedeschi/status/1262862927306133505
You’ve got to go down TEN states before you hit a blue one. And then a bunch more red states. The reason for this is that red states tend to use formulas that pay less benefits. The $ 600 wk bonus tends to skew these numbers.
Now the smart employers, like mine, will call their employees back with limited hours. I’m on a 16 hr wk schedule right now until business picks up. So, if you’re a restaurant that is now open, you call your ppl back Fri & Sat, 5 hrs each day. When employees file weekly, you’re asked how much you made and if you worked a full 40 hr schedule (at least in Utah, which is one of the stingiest states of all - they didn’t even get rid of the waiting week, which the CARES act specifically asked states to do).
Your people are considered partially furloughed, so they get partial state unemployment benefits, but the FULL Covid-19 bonus payment of $ 600 per week.”
Now, they may reduce the bonus benefit, to let’s say $ 400 a week, but I predict they renew all or part of it.
The unemployment rate is about the cover story and narrative that Trump lost the election because of the economy and not because he was cheated out by ballot mailings.
And this could backfire on the Dems, big time.
A lot of the unemployment dollars are still backed up in the system and haven’t been distributed yet. Once people receive their benefits and get caught up on bills (benefits will be paid retroactively), do you think that money is going under the mattress? Some will take a vacation with their paid time off, others will replace furniture, home repairs, etc. Yes, some will save it, but others will catch up on long neglected expenses. For those who will actually have schools, school shopping is going to be a thing.
All this money is going to show up in the GDP.
wow
yeah i dont make a lot for nyc but if i got let go even the extra 600 wouldn’t equal my prior earnings at the job
I totally understand.
But for state with lower living expenses, thus wages, thus unemployment benefits, that $ 600 is a thing.
And it’s going to find its way into the economy.
Two people at my job that I’ve talked to so far have used their stimulus payment, plus the bonus $ 600 unemployment (added to modest savings) to buy much needed used cars. One was a gal who despite working the graveyard shift, didn’t have reliable transportation, depending on rides from others. The other was her teenage son, who bought what we used to call “a beater” with his stimulus check. Because of this, he was able to get a job immediately and has joined the ranks of ....taxpayers.
Don’t buy that.
FDR had near-record unemployment in both 1936 and 1940. The first time, the direction was downward. The second, it was up. But people thought-—rightly or wrongly-—that the situation wasn’t his fault and gave him a pass. (In 1936, perhaps, but in 1940 his min. wage laws definitely caused unemployment to rise). Harry Truman had a crap economy in 1948, with very high inflation (”Horsemeat Harry”) and still got reelected.
I don’t think this is as big a factor if people rightly conclude that Trump had nothing to do with the China Virus, that he reopened the US in reasonable time, and that since then he (and not most governors) has pushed for reopening. Particularly when Demented Biteme says he’ll raise taxes, that’s a non-starter.
Trump in a 320-340 EV quasi landslide, probably wins the popular vote.
I’m seeing 3rd Q numbers of +21% and 4th in the +30% range.
The only long-term industries to hurt will be air/travel/entertainment. But even those will shoot back quickly when fully reopened in most states.
FDR had the press on his side.
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