Posted on 05/24/2020 7:55:32 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
Are politicians now continuing the lockdowns because admitting error — that they’re guilty of advancing one of American history’s greatest blunders — would mean political destruction? Are they continuing to destroy the careers of millions to save their own (when, perhaps, something more sinister is not at work)? Many may now draw this conclusion after yet another study, this one by establishment company JP Morgan, has found that the lockdowns have done nothing to alter the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic’s course.
As the Daily Mail reports:
Falling infection rates since lockdowns were lifted suggest that the virus ‘likely has its own dynamics’ which are ‘unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures’, a report published by the financial services giant said.
Denmark is among the countries which has [sic] seen its R [infection] rate continue to fall after schools and shopping malls re-opened, while Germany's rate has mostly remained below 1.0 after the lockdown was eased.
The report also shows many US states including Alabama, Wisconsin and Colorado enjoying lower R rates after lockdown measures were lifted.
Author Marko Kolanovic, a trained physicist and a strategist for JP Morgan, said governments had been spooked by ‘flawed scientific papers’ into imposing lockdowns which were ‘inefficient or late’ and had little effect.
‘Unlike rigorous testing of new drugs, lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than Covid-19 itself,’ he claimed.
The JP Morgan report includes graphs [below] showing that ‘the vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates’ after lockdowns were lifted.
(Excerpt) Read more at thenewamerican.com ...
That’s just the first line of the fearmonger’s song, bert.
But in fact, it’s apparently false, as demonstrated in Sweden where human contact was NOT curtailed.
True, Sweden’s current population death rate from the virus was a little higher than USA, but as of now they are far ahead of the USA on the herd immunity track, WITHOUT a severe impact on their economy like we now have.
Excellent point, Candor7, and I agree wholeheartedly.
That is exactly why we MUST regain control of this bureaucracy full of tyrants.
Right on, Wuli.
“Flattening the curve” was the camel’s nose under the tent.
Now we must deal with the camel.
You say “I am well aware that the left sees this as an opportunity to permanently crush our economy and finally force us all into a socialist dictatorship.”
I think that is the first thing I’ve seen you say in this article that I agree with.
That is exactly the issue that we are trying to deal with here.
A lot of issues must be addressed to accomplish that.
1. End the tyranny of the arrogant politicians at all levels exercising petty, unnecessary, ineffective or arbitrary limitations on our liberty.
2. Halt the unbridled growth of unelected but extremely powerful regulators, especially those who failed in their missions to properly prepare this pandemic. Specifically, HHS, NIH, CDC, and FDA all enjoy and are influenced far too much through hidden political and financial connections to the medical, pharmaceutical, and food industries.
3. Specifically examine the published CDC strategy (currently disguised as “Contact Tracing”) but is in reality a huge effort aimed at “vaccination tracking and enforcement”. Not only is this potentially an unconstitutional violation of liberty, it proposes a need for 300,000 additional “administrators” (enforcers).
The reason I keep up the drumbeat here is because of this, because Covid-19 genuinely is a very dangerous virus that will continue to pose a threat until we have it under complete control.
Someone posted here a while back that during the pandemic of 1917-1919, governments imposed lock-downs to stop the spread of the influenza, then lifted the lock-downs whenever the population became restless. As a result, H1N1 kept spreading. That pandemic circled the globe for 3 years, killing 50 million people before it was done.
I very much do not want to see Covid-19 become endemic or continue to kill more people. I want it gone. I think that people truly do not understand that the economic and societal cost of doing nothing is far far greater than any discomfort over temporary lock downs. Businesses are adapting. Schools are adapting. We can get over this, but not if people start believing untrue narratives that undermine the efforts to bring Covid-19 in check and yes, to completely eliminate it.
Remember a week or two ago the media push that we MUST have a vaccine and the “warp speed” effort to develop it? And following a few days later that Moderna released a cheery press release supposedly claiming a ‘win’ in the mRNA vaccine touted by Bill Gates and Anthony Fauci.
Of course, a few days later, Trump’s pandemic team and Dr. Fauci claimed rapid progress, a vaccine was already in accelerated testing and great optimism that it soon would be available.
Before I give you the bad news, I will note that Trump now says we must end the shutdown, vaccine or no vaccine. (Thankfully)
You probably haven’t heard it yet, so here is “the rest of the story”
Of course, a proposed vaccine like this is precisely what would be tracked in the CDC “Contact Tracing” (actually “vaccination tracking and enforcement”), for which government contracts are already in place.
Your lockdown will wind up killing more people than Vivid does.
Covid death rates are dropping. Meanwhile, people have been deferring surgeries, cancer screenings, etc. The deferred care will result in deaths.
The economic downturn will also result in deaths. What happens when we, as a nation, can no longer afford our former world -class health system?
And I submit that you seriously underestimate the damage the "lockdown" has done, and is doing. I think you also underestimate the political tide that is rising, and that the governors of even the blue states will be forced to quickly ease their restrictions.
Doing nothing, as you point out, is not a good option. But there's a middle ground between the "lockdown" and "doing nothing".
Further, when the governors and public health directors come up with crazy, arbitrary rules that they want to enforce on people, it undermines the sensible precautions that we should be taking. Example: my governor, Gavin Newsom, has banned sitting on a beach towel on the dry sand. What? How in the world can transmission occur if my family is sitting on the beach, 60 feet from the nearest other family? Is this the only pathogen that survives the blazing sun of a California summer day -- on a beach?
None of this should be read as downplaying the seriousness of the CCP virus, I'm fully convinced of that. But tradeoffs are going to have to be made.
Covid 19 vaccine shipped 02/25/2020 by Moderna Therapeutics
https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/
WOW! A Bill Gates supported company developed this vaccine even before the pandemic really got started!
And it’s testing started on 03/17/2020:
And here are the results!
The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the NIH, is funding the trial. The vaccine is called mRNA-1273 and was developed by NIAID, and Moderna, Inc., a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotechnology company.
“Finding a safe and effective vaccine to prevent infection with SARS-CoV-2 is an urgent public health priority,” NIAID Director Anthony Fauci said. “This Phase 1 study, launched in record speed, is an important first step toward achieving that goal.”
And on 03/21/2020 we learn a little more:
(and this one is really important)
WOW AGAIN! Bill Gates and Anthony Fauci at their very best!
Now try this on for size:
1. In late 2019 a new corona virus appeared in Wuhan China, and hidden from public view at the time by China government. Actual origin not yet proved in public, but following links are pertinent:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/china-hid-work-bat-woman-21853459
2. Covid-19 first appeared in the USA in late January. Trump was informed of this new virus and it’s potential to become a pandemic. He banned travel into the US from China and got strong objections from Congress, along with assurances from CDC and NIH (Dr. Anthony Fauci) that this was no big deal and worry was not justified.
3. A national emergency was declared by President Trump on March 13. President Trump was strongly criticized for overreaction.
Reliable tests for the virus were not generally available but “vaccine testing was already starting. The CDC “Contact” Tracing strategy was already in place but no significant testing available to be traced.
4. By April 11, the federal government approved disaster declarations for all states. Now President Trump was strongly criticized for being too late.
CDC guidelines and worldometer statistics provided by the CDC emphasized forcefully and consistently “Case Fatality Rates” and labeled them “Death Rates” which is deliberately misleading (explained be me many times before in several different forums).
This has been pure FEAR MONGERING at best. Actual population Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is a few orders of magnitude lower (because “cases” is usually a tiny percentage of “infections”.
My opinion is that the real purpose of all this fear mongering is simply convince the public that this Covid19 “epidemic” is really an extremely dangerous “pandemic” and giving up our liberty is justified to prevent something worse than the Spanish Flu in 1917 with 50 million deaths.
The government motivation of course is to rapidly establish massive increases in the power of the political bureaucracy (DEEP STATE SWAMP).
The urgency is that it must be accomplished before President Trump is re-elected in November.
That’s not a camel’s nose under our tent. Its actually something much larger and much more dangerous!
Perhaps you are not advocating doing nothing, but I see quite a number of posters here who are inventing all kinds of narratives and conspiracies to justify putting pressure on the various governments to do just that--nothing. I see a number who just want to let the pandemic virus circulate freely, and have no clue that the consequences of such an action are disastrous.
I agree that some of the restrictions are real head scratchers. My son in Texas told me that recreational boating is not allowed. Since when do boaters congregate so close that they are within 6 feet of other boaters? Other restrictions make sense. For example, there is a waterfront promenade in my town that is now one way only; perfectly sensible, as it allows people to walk along the marina while minimizing face to face contact.
No, I do not underestimate the economic impact of the lock-downs. As bad as they are, they are nothing in the face of the permanent hit to the economy should the virus be allowed to become endemic and circulate freely. We lose our societal knowledge base when large numbers of people over age 50 die or are incapacitated. Rather than going into every detail of the impact of poorly controlled infectious disease on a society, I would point at examples. Look how slowly societies advanced prior to the modern era of disease control, which really began to ramp up in the mid to late 1800s, versus the rapid advance of all kinds of technology now that we have much better control of infectious disease. Look at the current status of Africa, which seems to be a hotbed of emerging diseases. Africans are stuck, in that the toll of infectious disease is so high that they can never progress beyond third world status, but they need that progress to overcome the effects of infectious disease.
Yes, there is an economic impact to the lockdowns. But I also see that people are creative and coming up with new ways to do business. Every restaurant with shuttered doors has big signs encouraging people to order take out. Many retailers encourage customers to shop on line, then come for curbside delivery. Companies are encouraging more people to telework; the concept of telework has been well developed over the last several years, and now is proving very handy. And so on.
I didn't realize that the lock down belonged to me. Who knew I have so much power, sitting down here in my basement trying to educate people?
Covid death rates are dropping. Meanwhile, people have been deferring surgeries, cancer screenings, etc. The deferred care will result in deaths.
Several other death rates are dropping also. There are fewer accidents since fewer people are on the roads. I've even seen a mention that the death rate from other respiratory illnesses has dropped, due to the precautions people are taking against Covid-19. I have not personally confirmed this.
I would ask, are people deferring screening because they can't make appointments? Or are they afraid to go to the doctor now and just not picking up the phone to make the appointments? Most of my doctor appointments lately have been over the phone, but I did go to the clinic for an injection. A nurse at a table by the door was screening patients as they came in. I saw a youtube video where a physician who is involved in Covid-19 patient care was urging people to go ahead and make those appointments, not to put off their care because they're afraid of visiting the doctor.
The economic downturn will also result in deaths. What happens when we, as a nation, can no longer afford our former world -class health system?
The economic impact of the lock-downs is temporary. The economic impact of allowing a dangerous disease to spread unchecked among the population will last for years. Economic and technical development are very dependent on a healthy population--just look at any third world country where infectious diseases run rampant for evidence of that. The battle against infectious disease is constant and necessary. If we want a good economy, we must get rid of Covid-19. Short-term pain, long-term gain.
I like your camel analogy.
Here’s the thing that I think a lot of people are missing. While we are focusing on the death rates and those requiring hospitalization, looking at the demographics that indicate that it is “mostly” the elderly and those with underlying conditions who are dying or requiring ICU care, we are ignoring just how sick COVID-19 can make people, yes even young and healthy people.
My niece’s husband, in his mid-40’s, fit, trim, no underlying health conditions what so ever, doesn’t drink, doesn’t smoke and even before this, a bit of a germaphobe, came home from work on the 27th of April, not feeling well and having all the symptoms of COVID-19. The next day he was tested and that Thursday the results came in that he was positive.
That Friday night, May 1st, his wife, my niece took him to the ER because he was experiencing numbness and severe pain in his leg and since blood clots are a known complication, was concerned. The doctors at the hospital ruled out a blood clot but told them that this virus can cause inflammation of the nerves, one of the myriad of symptoms not commonly found with influenza. He was sent home and told to take Tylenol for the fever and nerve pain.
The following Saturday he started feeling better but that night spiked a high fever (+103) again. And this seems to be a common pattern – you start feeling better, then relapse. My niece told me that the worst symptoms for him were the teeth rattling/body shaking chills, the extreme body aches and the fatigue and a cough so bad that sometimes took his breath away. Nearly two weeks later, he was finally fever free for two days but he was still having body aches, a cough that wouldn’t let up and extreme fatigue and weakness - he would get very dizzy and feel on the verge of passing out just getting up to go the bathroom.
So he was laid up sick and not able to go to work for two and a half weeks. And this is someone who rarely gets sick or ever misses work. The last time he missed work was two years ago when he had a kidney stone. He’s back to work but still struggling with fatigue.
On May 4th, my niece took one of her daughters, age 12 to the doctors as she was showing symptoms including breathing difficulties and a high fever and tested positive. A week later she had been fever free for 12 hours but was still very achy and “sore”, coughing a lot, but as my niece said, “she’s a trooper and isn’t one to complain or let anyone know when she’s feeling bad”.
My niece’s other three children also had symptoms but none spiked a high fever or breathing difficulties and therefore they couldn’t get tested. While there is more widespread testing, unless you have severe symptoms such as breathing difficulties along with a high fever, many are still being denied tests.
My niece and her adult stepson however, were tested and were both negative even as they were both showing symptoms. My niece’s doctor told her it was her allergies acting up (not sure about the stepson), which it could be the case, but she had a very bad headache and a bad cough and a mild fever, something that is not typical for allergies, and given their living situation, I wouldn’t be surprised if she, her stepson and her other three children didn’t have it too. That and it’s concerning the number of false negative tests.
So the point is that the virus is quite contagious, and yes my niece’s family are now all completely recovered and out of their self-imposed 14-day isolation but her husband missed two and a half weeks of work and that was a big deal for them and his employer.
Now imagine without things like social distancing and face masks to help slow the spread, millions of people getting too sick to work and all at around the same time. That alone may cause many businesses and things like schools to shut down.
FWIW, I’ve been out of work since early January (not COVID-19 related) and have had difficulty finding a new job, likely because of the shut downs.
Last week I was to have had an interview, however it was postponed because the owner of the company, a metal fabricator, was having to work on the production floor as he had so many workers calling out sick. Do these workers who called out all have COVID-19 or are some of them taking advantage of the situation? I don’t know, but I do know that a lot of people here in PA are sick and missing work and not all of them can get tested.
Your assumption is that we will be able to “get rid of” a coronavirus like SARS-CoV-2 (the official name of the virus that causes COVID-19).
Consider the possibility that we may never really get a vaccine for it, like we never did get a vaccine for its earlier cousin from 2003, which was also a present from China.
Consider the possibility that we may need to just live with it, like we live with the common cold.
We cannot keep the economy shut down forever.
I do focus on the death rates because I want people to understand how serious the threat is. But you are correct: the disruption to an economy and society does not result from the deaths as much as from the seriously ill. The perfect bioterrorism weapon is the one that makes a lot of people ill and ties up resources, without necessarily killing a lot.
The disease you describe is pretty severe. It is possible for your niece to test negative and then test positive later, after the virus has had time to replicate. This is a common enough occurrence.
Whenever someone repeats the narrative that Covid-19 has already spread impossibly fast and that unbelievably high numbers of people have already caught it without having symptoms, I think of one of the properties of infectious diseases. In general, the more severe the symptoms are, the less likely it is for cases to be asymptomatic. I think that it is likely some symptoms are not recognized, but not that there are more than a few asymptomatic cases. I'm going to have to do some digging on that; there is a little bit of research, not much, on asymptomatic cases. I found a description of a study where monkeys were infected with Covid-19. They did not show symptoms, but they developed lung lesions. Yow. Asymptomatic doesn't mean that the disease is harmless!
And why should I not assume that? We have many successes in getting rid of diseases. We eradicated smallpox and rinderpest (a livestock disease similar to measles). We stopped SARS, even after it started worldwide spread. We are on track to eradicate measles, polio, and guinea worm disease. Every time there is an Ebola or Marburg outbreak, we successfully eliminate it. (Each Ebola or Marburg outbreak is, in fact, a brand new emerging disease event, since these viruses do not circulate in the human population.) Malaria and yellow fever have been eliminated from the United States. And so on.
Consider the possibility that we may never really get a vaccine for it, like we never did get a vaccine for its earlier cousin from 2003, which was also a present from China.
We eradicated SARS without a vaccine, and it had already begun to spread outside of China when we achieved that. A vaccine is not strictly necessary; as I mentioned above, we have controlled many outbreaks without vaccines.
Consider the possibility that we may need to just live with it, like we live with the common cold.
We live with the common cold because it does not kill, and there are plenty of other diseases that do kill that have higher priority for research. Covid-19 is the first cold ever that not only kills, but has a fairly high fatality rate. So there is strong reason to get rid of Covid-19. As I described above, we have successfully controlled a number of diseases, so there is no question about whether it is possible to eradicate Covid-19. Personally, I do not think we should throw in the towel just because some people who do not know the history of or understand infectious disease find the infection control measures inconvenient. Yeah, we're all affected by it, I get it.
We cannot keep the economy shut down forever.
We have never before in history had the amount of prosperity that we are all used to today. Even our poor people live like kings when compared to how people lived in the past. The difference between the modern era and historical times is that we have achieved a high level of control over infectious disease. If we were to throw in the towel and just let Covid-19 spread uncontrolled, millions of people would die and millions more would become seriously ill and quite probably develop long-term impairments from it. The economic impacts of uncontrolled spread of Covid-19 would be far greater than the temporary impacts of doing whatever is necessary to stop it now.
Is everybody dead yet?
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