Posted on 05/22/2020 4:39:16 AM PDT by Kaslin
Do you remember the 1957-58 Asian flu? Or the 1968-69 Hong Kong flu? I do. I was a teenager during the first of these, an adult finishing law school during the second. But even though back then I followed the news much more than the average person my age, I can't dredge up more than the dimmest memory of either.
I don't have any memory of schools closing, though apparently, a few did here and there. I have no memories of city or state lockdowns, of closed offices and factories and department stores, of people banned from parks and beaches.
Yet these two influenzas had death tolls roughly comparable to that of COVID-19. Between 70,000 and 116,000 people in the U.S. died from Asian flu. That's between 0.04 percent and 0.07 percent of the nation's population, somewhat more than the 0.03 percent of the COVID-19 death rate so far.
The Asian flu, unlike COVID-19, was rarely fatal for children and was more deadly for the elderly -- and pregnant women.
The Hong Kong flu, the Center for Disease Control & Prevention says, had more precisely an estimated U.S. death toll of 100,000 in 1968-70 (years that included the Woodstock festival), 0.05 percent of the total population. Both flus had high death rates among the elderly but, apparently, not as high a proportion as COVID-19 has had.
Once again, there were no nationwide school closings, no multi-month lockdowns, no daily presidential news conferences. Apparently, neither the nation's leaders nor the vast bulk of its people felt that such drastic measures were called for.
Perhaps some of this calm reaction can be ascribed to confidence that a vaccine would be developed, as other flu vaccines had been developed after the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic. But flu vaccines are never entirely effective, and none were widely available until after the Asian and Hong Kong flus had swept over the nation.
Fundamental attitudes can change in a nation over half a century, and the very different responses to this year's coronavirus pandemic and the influenzas of 50 and 60 years ago suggest that Americans today are much more risk-averse, much more willing to undergo massive inconvenience and disruption to avoid marginal increases in fatal risk.
At least some of this can be explained by different experiences. The Asian and Hong Kong flus arrived in an America amid and at the end of what I call the Midcentury Moment. That's my name for the quarter-century after World War II when Americans enjoyed low-inflation economic growth, and a degree of cultural uniformity and respect for institutions that some yearn for today.
Midcentury Americans had living memories of World War II, with its 405,000 American military deaths. They were troubled not so much by the number of military deaths in Korea (36,000) and Vietnam (58,000) but by our leaders' failure, after years of effort, to achieve victory.
Contrast this with the shrillness of outcries over orders of magnitude fewer military deaths in Iraq (4,497) and Afghanistan (2,216). Yes, every death is a tragedy, but those numbers total less than the average number of deaths in America every day (7,707) in 2018. But today's Americans, beneficiaries of a victory in the Cold War that was almost entirely bloodless, seem to blanch at paying any human price.
They seem to also expect any competent leader to come up with policies that preserve every life at any cost. Thus the high approval of New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who said his lockdown is worth it if it saves just one life -- although if he really believed that, he'd impose and strictly enforce a five mph speed limit on the New York State Thruway.
You can argue that Americans in the Midcentury Moment were too willing to accept pandemic or battlefield deaths, just as they were too willing to accept racial segregation or to stigmatize uncommon lifestyles.
But there's also a strong argument that they had a more realistic sense of the limits of the human condition and the efficacy of official action than Americans have today -- certainly more than the governors stubbornly enforcing lockdowns till the virus is stamped out and deaths fall to zero.
Behind that stance is the assumption there's an instant and painless solution for every problem, rather than a need to weigh conflicting goals and make tragic choices amid unavoidable uncertainty.
When it’s your time to die, you will die. Age doesn’t make no difference
This pandemic has been used to foster the misconception that gov’t can protect you from risk.
That is why you see the big gov’t supporters in favor of the lockdown until the “risk” is gone and the supporters of individual liberty willing to take the “risk” by lifting the lockdown.
We’ve had schools close locally when the absentee rate told us we should probably close them up for a bit.
The latest re-definition of candy assed, public school indoctrinated pussys ?
Risk-averse? America has become a gigantic gynecologist’s office.
However, for Americans that don’t fall into the above category, there is NO obstacle that can’t be overcome. It will take time; it will entail risk; and there will be some degree of pain and hardship. But it CAN be done.
decent article...
177 million population in 1957
200 million population in 1969
“The Asian flu, unlike COVID-19, was rarely fatal for children and was more deadly for the elderly — and pregnant women.”
COVID-19 is more than rarely fatal in kids?
I also lived through both the Asian and Hong Kong flus. Population of US during Asian flu approximately 177,000,000 about half of today’s population. US population during Hong Kong flu about 204,000,000. If you do the numbers these were much worse than today’s CV.
The last time I had the Flu, I was 17 years old. I will be 79 in August, so that is a long time. I used to take Flu shots after I turned 65, because it was recommended. But I stopped taking taking them a few years ago, for the reason that it has been so long ago since I had the flu. Also I stay away from places where I could catch it.
Polio.
And because it seemed to hit kids the most often, and because we actually had strong families back then, it was terrifying.
Of course we had a lot of advantages back then - strong families, strong parents, strong communities, strong Churches, and the media was hardly important.
I remember my parents and their friends visiting and the frequent comment, “boy I hope our kids don't get that stuff - but what are you going to do, you have to let them be kids.”
Ah for the glorious days of adult leadership and hardly a liberal to be found.
” Between 70,000 and 116,000 people in the U.S. died from Asian flu.”
I think that number for the Asian flu was over an 18 month period. The Covid deaths are almost all in the last 2.5 months. The Covid deaths would likely be much higher if we did not have the lockdowns, although people will argue about this forever and there is no way to prove it one way or the other. When the dust settles I think the evidence will show Covid is 10 times deadlier than regular flu and 3 times deadlier than the Asian flu, although maybe much less deadly than Spanish flu 1918.
A good way to figure out the mortality rate without lockdowns would be to look at Sweden. They have 384 deaths per million now and we have only 260 per million. But there is really no way to know if the lockdowns are helping.
Interestingly, the article below indicates that Covid19 has been much deadlier in Italy than Hong Kong flu, even adjusting for population.
“The first season analyzed was the 1969-70 pandemic season. In Italy, as in other European countries,[8] the pandemic season was more destructive in the second season of circulation of influenza A (H3N2) virus (i.e., in 1969-70), 1 year after the pandemic strain was first introduced to Italy.[25,26,27] The pandemic season seems to have had a greater effect in Italy; excess mortality rates were estimated to be 38 (20,000 deaths) for P&I “
So the 1969-70 Hong Kong flu killed 20,000 in Italy but Covid19 has killed 31,000 already. The population of Italy has not changed much in the last 50 years (60mm vs. 53mm)
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/556555_3
see page 4 of the article
I remember polio. It only caused a fraction of the deaths of covid in the US. But, because it affected children, it was an absolute panic. Since covid only kills mostly older people, there doesn’t seem to be as much concern for their lives.
The author mentions having no memories of school & other closings & other extreme measures when the other flu outbreaks occurred. That might be because Donald trump was not president then. When those other flu outbreaks occurred, there was more concern for the problems actually connected to the flu,rather than political payback because of Democrat discontent.
The CDC runs the country now....Looks like no summer camps for kids...
Well there might be but who would want to go...
Bet the schools opening in August will be full of rules..
The country is finished.....LOOK WHAT WENT ON IN WWII
Some Karens and Pajama Boys are risk-averse it’s true. But a greater majority of Americans, the in-the-trenches business owners and workers, went along with the initial lockdowns because it was unclear if this was a Black Plague level virus or bio-weapon.
We were shown images from China of people dropping dead in the streets. We were fed statistics of how quickly it spread and killed through a nursing home.
We were told by the credentialed elitist experts that it would spread like wildfire and overwhelm our healthcare system.
We were told we must submit to a two-week lockdown for the Greater Good.
We did it willingly. We do it willingly no more. The experts are either charlatans or fools; it doesn’t matter as the result is the same: A crashed economy and an awakened populace.
Societal changes = 24/7 media part of deep state w/ an agenda and social media as a propaganda platform all to shape public opinion...that’s what’s changed.
Better Title: “We’re a Bunch of Wussies”
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