Posted on 05/21/2020 3:26:31 PM PDT by lightman
Pa. Gov. Tom Wolf could announce which counties will be the state’s first to move into the green phase of his coronavirus reopening plan on Friday.
At the same time, some areas still stuck in the red phase, otherwise known as a complete stay at home order, could be allowed to soon move into the yellow phase.
“We’re making decisions based on the best information we have, and making the best decisions we can, based on the best models that are always changing and moving," Wolf said Thursday.
“I’ll be announcing a whole range of counties tomorrow moving from red to yellow, and the hope is that we’ll also be making some counties that might even be moving from yellow to green tomorrow.”
Here’s what we know, and what we predict could happen, as Wolf prepares to make a number of announcements to end the week.
Additionally, if you’re only interested in counties that are waiting to move to yellow such as Dauphin, Lancaster, and Lebanon, please scroll down, as we have two other subsections first.
Reopening rewind
Let’s get some basic information out of the way first.
As of Fri., May 21:
Bradford, Cameron, Centre, Clarion, Clearfield, Clinton, Crawford, Elk, Erie, Forest, Jefferson, Lawrence, Lycoming, McKean, Mercer, Montour, Northumberland, Potter, Snyder, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, Venango, and Warren counties will have been in the yellow zone for two weeks.
Allegheny, Armstrong, Bedford, Blair, Butler, Cambria, Fayette, Fulton, Greene, Indiana, Somerset, Washington and Westmoreland counties will have been in the yellow zone for a week.
Adams, Beaver, Carbon, Columbia, Cumberland, Juniata, Mifflin, Perry, Susquehanna, Wyoming, Wayne, and York counties will start their first day in the yellow zone at 12:01 a.m.
Berks, Bucks, Chester, Dauphin, Delaware, Franklin, Huntingdon, Lackawanna, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lehigh Luzerne, Montgomery, Monroe, Northampton, Philadelphia, Pike, and Schuylkill continue to be in the red phase.
Based on past weeks, any county moving to a different phase is told that it is doing so one week ahead of time. It stands to reason, then, that any decisions announced on Fri., May 21 won’t take effect until Fri., May 29.
Who could be first up for green?
The Wolf administration has yet to reveal what criteria it will rely on to move counties into the green phase, but we know that they are consulting models from various institutions and hospital systems to make all reopening decisions.
Things like an average of fewer than 50 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents over a two-week period, the availability of testing and contract tracing capabilities, hospital capacity, population density and age, and travel into and out of a county are all taken into consideration, among other things. It’s unclear how low that 50 number will drop when it comes to making green determinations.
Our projections below are simply that based on all of the information available, which is dated in some ways, and are far from guarantees heading into Wolf’s announcement. By looking at the data, though, we can make some informed predictions on what might take place.
For starters, it feels like a safe bet that any county moving into the green zone will come out of the list of 24 counties that have been in the yellow zone for two weeks. Of them, the following have fewer than 10 confirmed cases on the 14-day average per 100,000 residents according to PennLive’s math:
Cameron - 0
Clarion - 5.2
Crawford - 1.2
Elk - 3.3
Forrest - 0
Jefferson - 0
Lawrence - 4.7
Montour - 5.5
Potter - 0
Snyder - 0
Tioga - 0
Venango - 2
Warren - 5.1
It has been repeatedly stressed that the case count metric is not the sole factor that goes into the reopening decision, though, so let’s consider some of the other factors.
On a Carnegie Melon University model county scorecard dated May 15, Bradford and Potter counties received positive marks in every category but re-opening risk, for which they received a neutral score.
In the case of Snyder, it mostly fared well on the scorecard save for a negative mark related to ICU capacity, which was also flagged in Tioga county despite otherwise positive showings.
Other counties with zero cases in the 14-day COVID-19 cases risk category also had some troubles on the May 15 scorecard. Keep in mind, however, that the data being discussed above is a week old, and thus Friday’s report could look differently.
Jefferson and Forrest had red or orange marks signaling problematic signs in the ICU and re-opening contact risk categories, as did Cameron. The same can be said for an additional county with a low if not zero numbers, Crawford, while Venango had some concerns about re-opening contact risk and was neutral in the population age risk category.
Put it all together, and without all of the available metrics and no presence in Wolf’s decision-making room, Bradford and Potter appear to be the counties with the best cases to move ahead to green if the governor is ready to take that step, while the rest could go either way based on how some factors unrelated to the case count are weighed.
More: Where are Pennsylvania’s 65,392 coronavirus cases? May 21 map, county-by-county breakdown
What about counties moving from red to yellow?
As noted above, Berks, Bucks, Chester, Dauphin, Delaware, Franklin, Huntingdon, Lackawanna, Lancaster, Lebanon, Lehigh, Luzerne, Montgomery, Monroe, Northampton, Philadelphia, Pike and Schuylkill counties are all still in the red phase.
Wolf did signal that some of that group could be given the go-ahead Friday to move ahead soon, and we can make some guesses about which will make the cut by looking at the case count numbers we compiled.
Again, they’re far from the end-all, be-all, but no county has been allowed to access the yellow phase without being in the ballpark of having an average of 50 cases per 100,000 residents over a 14-day period.
By that standard, the following counties are close:
Monroe - 57
Lebanon - 71.9
And here’s where the rest of the listed counties stand:
Luzerne - 82.5
Schuylkill - 89.1
Pike - 96.8
Dauphin - 107.4
Chester - 113.1
Lancaster - 113.6
Lehigh - 131.1
Northampton - 150.4
Lackawanna - 161.1
Franklin - 162.6
Montgomery - 162.8
Berks - 163.6
Bucks - 177.2
Philadelphia - 178.9
Huntingdon - 248.1
Delaware - 259.7
It should be noted that some of these counties have case counts that are very much impacted by either one or numerous nursing homes/long-term care facilities and/or prisons within their borders, and it’s unclear if that will be considered more now than it has been during this week’s decision-making process. Previously, the Wolf administration has said that, since workers travel to and from the facilities, their numbers are taken into account.
With that out of the way, Monroe and Lebanon seem to have a clear path to yellow, while Luzerne, Schuylkill, and Pike are unlikely but at best possibly under consideration for advancement. Dauphin, Chester, and Lancaster can be seen as extreme longshots, while all other counties should have no shot unless a change in philosophy is implemented.
You can review the full May 15 scorecard that has been repeatedly referenced in this piece for yourself by clicking here.
What changes in yellow and green?
Red is the complete stay at home order, which currently runs through June 4. We’ve all become familiar enough with what that means, and so we’ll avoid repetition here.
In the yellow phase, some businesses previously classified as non-life sustaining can reopen, such as manufactures, pet groomers, and retail operations.
In the green phase, anything and everything can reopen as long as Pa. Department of Health and CDC guidelines are followed. As of Thursday, we don’t know what Pa. will mandate in this phase as it relates to large groups, capacity in dine-in venues and other indoor entertainment places, or other such things.
You can review the full May 15 scorecard that has been repeatedly referenced in this piece for yourself by clicking here.
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Wonderful. I’m on the Chester DelCo line...
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Only 469 cases and 17 deaths in Pike County. Seeing the majority of these NEPA deaths are people in Nursing Homes, there is no reason why businesses cannot begin to open.
Which could go into green? Any of them. Any time they decided to.
Just came in from shopping in Dauphin county. Didn’t run into any Karens. Shock! People were going the wrong way in grocery store aisles. Some people didn’t have their masks on properly. One guy, and I’m not say who, had a mask on that had written on it, “F U Wolf”. It was on more like a chin strap than a mask tho. Worse yet, some people were not social distancing, err, sorry about that, the new term is physical distancing per the WHO. I think we are all going to die. </sarc>
FYI, the Country Cupboard in Lewisurg has reopened their retail shops! Food still takeout only. Great news and best of luck to them! It’s a great place to shop and eat.
Lewisburg, PA that is.
Clyde Peeling’s Reptileland has reopened its gift shop, but not the zoo. So partial good news there.
I follow the philosophy of Professor de La Paz from Heinlein’s The Moon is a Harsh Mistress.
“I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do.”
And that represents 57% of the population of PA. We are now 10 weeks into the lockdown with no end in sight. Wolf doesn't give a ****. He is too in love with his newly found dictatorial power to consider what this insanity is doing to people. I hope he catches the 'rona and drops dead.
We’re in Montco - first to get locked down and no end in sight. We get out of the house pretty much every day, but it is really getting on our nerves. Summer activities are being shut down all over the place. Scout camps are closed, the pool club probably is not opening, our church is talking about not having services for 18 months(!), and an October retreat is already being switched to virtual (why bother?). 83% of our COVID deaths are nursing home associated but the Gov is using high numbers as an excuse to grind us under his boot heel. It’s a swing district in a swing state, and the push for vote-by-mail is on. The number of polling places was reduced (’public safety’).
Pennsylvania is miscounting new cases by combining virus test results and antibody testing it would appear. If correct, some counties will never get out of red because antibody resting is gearing up start8ng in Chester County with first responders and health care workers.
Considering that the Secretary of "Health" doesn't know which bathroom to use, is this surprising?
Not to open yet we need to kill more old folks. /s
I’ve been suspecting this for a while, now I’m sure of it. I’m surprised that a left wing rag like The Atlantic would have published this.
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