computer models are always “best guesses” They are not scientific
GIGO applies here garbage in garbage out
As someone who has been a meteorologist for 32 years - THAT is a stupid - ignorant statement. Computer models are based on math and science. Some are crap and some are good. Each model has its bias - and some are good in certain situations - and some are bad for others.
I spend an entire career making forecasts and briefing 3 & 4-star generals and presidents on what computer models said...based on their science and math.
computer models are always “best guesses” They are not scientific
GIGO applies here garbage in garbage out
The dangers of “models” in the modern world is they are used as justification for major decisions. In the scientific method, the projections of any model are nothing more than a hypothesis. A hypothesis is not a fact until it is tested, peer reviewed, and it can be tested by others or reflected by reality.
Climate change or global warming is a hypothesis based on models and it has led to draconian and severe policies justified not by facts or real data, but solely supported by flawed models that have continually been wrong. This hypothesis has cost us a huge amount of money and lost economic output and led to poor policy decisions.
We now have seen the same thing play out in a few short months with this “pandemic”. Same bad models driving policy decisions leading to the same bad result.
The models were wrong about everything - ventilators, projected deaths, hospitals overwhelmed, etc etc etc. Sadly, there is no introspection over this as our media and panickcrats are on to the next dire projection.... i.e. - the resurgence in the fall, round 2, etc etc, all based on the same models.
every “model” used to determine public policy needs to open source.