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Coronavirus: Is Universal Testing a Universal Good?
American Thinker ^ | 05/07/2020 | Randal S. Bock

Posted on 05/07/2020 6:35:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Many governments and academics around the world are calling for widespread or even universal testing for SARS-CoV-2, "the coronavirus."   Before endorsing, it's worthwhile becoming familiar with the clever stratagem of eighteenth-century Presbyterian minister Thomas Bayes.   It wouldn't be the first time his calculations will have come in handy: Alan Turing used Bayesian probabilities to help crack the Nazi Enigma Code.

Reverend Bayes died without knowing the value his statistical speculation would bring to the world — but people, examining posthumous notebooks, realized he'd discovered a fascinating trick of statistics.   Simply put, he calculated that the likelihood of an outcome's occurring depends on the background incidence of that outcome.   For example, is that potted palm real or fake?   Beware of being fooled by its lush green leaves; the likelihood that it contains chlorophyll instead of green dye depends on whether you're outdoors in Miami or in a corridor of a Chicago high rise.   The body of statistics Thomas Bayes wrapped around this phenomenon deservedly carries his name.

Bayes's Theorem stress-tests proposed coronavirus widespread-testing policy — yet outside data sciences, it's been nowhere mentioned during this crisis.   Since no diagnostic test can be 100% accurate, results are a probability game.   If you're in London or New York, the ensuing number of false COVID-19 diagnoses is inconvenient but relatively small.   But Bayes, peering through the centuries, demonstrates that the ratio of false results balloons when we extensively test symptomless people in communities with a low incidence of COVID-19.

Bayes's greatest import occurs twice: as populations enter into and leave coronavirus-active phases.   At those times of low disease prevalence, test imperfections are magnified, causing more "positive" tests than naïvely expected, bringing "false alarm" panics early on — and inappropriate delays to normalcy after the fact.


(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; testing

1 posted on 05/07/2020 6:35:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Excellent article. Explains the trap of univesal testing.

It is important to know the limitations of our ability to know.

2 posted on 05/07/2020 6:42:00 AM PDT by marktwain (President Trump and his supporters are the Resistance. His opponents are the Reactionaries.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Don’t underestimate the power of people, be they in government or the private sector, if they have a data base defining individuals who are known to have been infected with COVID-19. Already the military has deemed all such individuals ineligible to enter the military. Can’t imagine what employers, insurance companies, government, schools and police will be doing with such data bases in the near future. Think carefully before you go for a test. Elected officials have already demonstrated their tendency for draconian policies and disregard for constitutional guarantees of individual liberty.


3 posted on 05/07/2020 6:45:45 AM PDT by allendale (.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Testing is an unattainable goal. It is the mantra of the left so that fear lingers.

It is, however, possible to test targeted populations, such as nursing homes, meat plants and factories, etc., where hot spots are possible.


4 posted on 05/07/2020 6:58:20 AM PDT by Chauncey Gardiner
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To: SeekAndFind
If you don't test positive for antibodies, some may consider you unsafe for certain positions and force you to take the vaccine.
And of course there is the spectre of false negatives and positives.
And the issue of the government obtaining blood samples and DNA from everybody.

5 posted on 05/07/2020 7:04:37 AM PDT by BitWielder1 (I'd rather have Unequal Wealth than Equal Poverty.)
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To: marktwain

This corona virus thing is a war against the American people.

This corona virus thing is not about saving lives or health or anything like that. It’s a political war.

They’re using fear to get conservatives and Americans to surrender, give up their freedoms, destroy their economy (and so our Leader Trump), and destroy our country and capitalism.

This is a communist/socialist coup. They don’t want to save your life they want to make the USA a socialist state and destroy America.

This year 2020 there was never any threat from any virus more so than every year from the yearly flu. This corona malarky is no more deadly than any other regular flu and never was.
.

The death tolls and everything about this is totally fake. This video shows that the death tolls are extremely inflated:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfG9nmAnQp4

Candace Owens Twitter, other twitter accounts show these corona virus death tolls are highly inflated (fake):

https://twitter.com/RealCandaceO/status/1256239182827184130

https://twitter.com/TheRightMelissa/status/1258106370827735042

Furthermore the methods of these insane government idiots like masks, locking people in houses, ventilators make things worse for health (ventilators killed people not any “super virus”). Sweden didn’t do any of these lockdowns etc and they have very low death tolls from this corona virus


6 posted on 05/07/2020 7:08:27 AM PDT by rurgan (Democrats are socialists. Vote for Trump or the US will be Venezuela)
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To: SeekAndFind
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTRWmhmgBCY&feature=youtu.be --------------- Getting real. Crossing a hard line. --------------- Gillibrand sponsoring bill 55 billion to pay for health force of contact tracers for the nation. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494147-gillibrand-bennet-propose-hiring-thousands-for-new-health-force ------------------ “And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?... The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin's thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If...if...We didn't love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation.... We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.” ― Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn , The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956
7 posted on 05/07/2020 7:09:29 AM PDT by Sheapdog (Chew the meat, spit out the bones - FUBO - Come and get me)
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To: Sheapdog

For some reason couldn’t get my response to separate???? try again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTRWmhmgBCY&feature=youtu.be

scary!!Getting real.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/494147-gillibrand-bennet-propose-hiring-thousands-for-new-health-force


8 posted on 05/07/2020 7:12:41 AM PDT by Sheapdog (Chew the meat, spit out the bones - FUBO - Come and get me)
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To: Sheapdog
“And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?... The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin's thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If...if...We didn't love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation.... We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.” ― Aleksandr I. Solzhenitsyn , The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956
9 posted on 05/07/2020 7:13:14 AM PDT by Sheapdog (Chew the meat, spit out the bones - FUBO - Come and get me)
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To: SeekAndFind
but people, examining posthumous notebooks,

How did Reverend Bayes write in notebooks posthumously?

10 posted on 05/07/2020 7:27:39 AM PDT by Yo-Yo ( is the /sarc tag really necessary?)
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To: SeekAndFind

MY DNA & other health issues do not need to be in the hands of the Federal Government.

NOT NOW-—NOT EVER.


11 posted on 05/07/2020 8:00:46 AM PDT by ridesthemiles
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To: rurgan

The coronavirus SARSCOV2-19 CCP Plandemic is Obamaumaocare written in STONE.

You WILL be tested— you MUST be tested, and the results will determine where you can go and what you can do.

This is about CONTROL of individuals and removing Freedom. Govt a@@clowns and tech weenie apparatchiks who enable govt— like Bill Gates (see: Lindsey Graham’s endorsement for a tech weenie to be head of WHO— just... beyond idiotic. So he can “market” his “vaccine” with Soros and the Chi-Coms who created the virus. Socialism is FORCE as well as THEFT!).


12 posted on 05/07/2020 8:17:28 AM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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