COVID-19 Update - 05/06/2020

My own workup | 05/06/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

I've not been real good about responding in a timely fashion on these threads. I apologize. I had been putting in quite a bit of time on this, and I'm sort of decompressing a little bit. I'll be responding better in a few days. I appreciate the comments and don't mean any disrespect to any of you.

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[Paul R.]

I apologize. I had been putting in quite a bit of time on this, and I'm sort of decompressing a little bit.

I can imagine!

It looks like we are still in that cycle of higher mid-week results... :-(

Anecdotally, I made a supplies run yesterday, and stores were the busiest I've seen since restrictions went into place in most states. Wal-Mart had a line outside to get in that ran all the way across the front of the store. I'd say 80% plus wearing masks. But at a farm supply store, Rural King, customer mask wearing was maybe 50%. Many masks I saw are, well, not that great (effective), some poorly worn, etc. Better than nothing I suppose. There were less visible mitigation efforts, such as cleaning of registers, not swapping carts @ Aldi's checkout, etc., inside any store I went in, compared to a couple weeks ago. I'd not be surprised to see case levels creep back up unless we get a literally 10x increase in N95 mask production.

I'm still wondering if there is a source for numbers of tests run in the US (per day or per week) vs. how many positives (per day or per week).

Thanks for all the work!

[buckalfa]

Thank you DoughtyOne for your presentations.

[SgtBob]

Why is the CDC only reporting 39,910 deaths due to the Wuhan Floo? Where do you get your information from?

[USS Alaska]

Six days in a row now, the growth of fatalities in the United State has declined. That's a decent accomplishment these days.

No response required, you do such a great job in posting these charts.

My view on the decline is that the numbers crunchers are "saving up" on some deaths so that they can blast Trump in Mid-May, just like that day in Mid-April that spiked up to 6,000+, and claim that it was caused by a premature opening of the country.

Orange man bad, he's at fault because your great aunt, aged 89, with a bad heart and weighing 230 pounds, died because TRUMP opened America.

[DoughtyOne]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[billyboy15]

“Many masks I saw are, well, not that great (effective), some poorly worn, etc. Better than nothing I suppose.”

They can do more harm than good if not worn and changed properly. Wearing the same mask from one location to the next merely transmits any contaminate the mask traps. To even begin to be effective a mask must be changed whenever your location changes similar to what Drs and Nurses do when they move from patient to patient.

[RaceBannon]

bump!

[Zhang Fei]

[It looks like we are still in that cycle of higher mid-week results... :-( ]

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I expect the virus doesn’t actually take weekends off. It’s more or less the same reason that Monday cars assembled in Detroit tended to have quality problems - after-effects from alcohol or other binges.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Here is that data on cumulative tests and daily change since 24 Apr. If you divide the daily new tests by the new cases that might approximate the % positive. But keep in mind that a lot of people are tested two or three times.

Florida is the only state I know of that is recording the number of people who have been tested for the first time as to whether they are positive or negative. You may want to check the data from your state to see what they are doing.

24-Apr 5,015,602
25-Apr 5,279,237 263,635
26-Apr 5,470,464 191,227
27-Apr 5,696,928 226,464
28-Apr 5,919,847 222,919
29-Apr 6,139,911 220,064
30-Apr 6,391,887 251,976
1-May 6,699,878 307,991
2-May 6,931,132 231,254
3-May 7,196,740 265,608
4-May 7,462,431 265,691
5-May 7,727,811 265,380

[Presbyterian Reporter]

This is from—

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Read the CDC explanation of the 39,910 deaths

[Godzilla]

bttt

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

Orange man bad, he's at fault because your great aunt, aged 89, with a bad heart and weighing 230 pounds, died because TRUMP opened America.

There are more than 20,000 positive cases still in NJ Nursing homes. NJ.gov Covid 19 dashboard. There are still more than 14,000 Covid 19 positive "serious cases" in the ICU setting.

Hopefully, many of them will survive. But some of those will not. There are many more deaths to come and they will have nothing to do with relaxing the lockdown. I agree, the media will not inform the public where the real tragedy has been committed. Numbers lie, liars lie.

[lurk]

So the first lesson we can take away from this is not to live in a large collectivist metro area.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“””here are still more than 14,000 Covid 19 positive “serious cases” in the ICU setting.”””

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Are you saying 14,000 in New Jersey? Or is this nationwide?

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

16,000 "serious" Covid-19 cases nationwide.

NJ.gov dashboard there are 1400 Covid-19 cases in ICU in NJ hospitals.... but more than 20,000 cases still in related to our vulnerable NJ nursing home population.

[A Navy Vet]

Thank you for your amazing effort, but please take me off your ping list. I don’t have time to go through all the stats and charts you provide. I read enough about this. With respect, ANV.

[DoughtyOne]

No problem. Done.

[Paul R.]

Thanks. It looks like there’s been a slight increase in testing, on average, over those 12 days, but slight only.