COVID-19 Update - 05/06/2020

My own workup | 05/06/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update

As of 05/05/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscelanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranked with the Other States Territories at Bottom
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Link to Spreadsheet: Our Counties, States, Territories, & Other Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information²
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

The Sweden Study Gets a New Entity

The night before last, I added the Netherlands in as a fourth nation to
compare Sweden with. Numbers and charts for the same time periods.

Links to Other Sources of Information

There are more links down at the bottom of the report. Those that
link to articles on Free Republic, I would urge you to peek at the
comments below. Some of the comments on the Vitam D thread there are
helpful. They add further information.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Here we go...

The volume of our new cases went up just barely yesterday. (72 Cases)
We're still way under Friday's numbers. The same can be said for the global
numbers but there is a problem. I'll address in the Daily Case Report
area. You'll see it clearly there.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here's more of our numbers...

For the first time in seven days, the daily growth of Fatalities increased
over the prior day. They still came in under the numbers six and seven
days ago. We'll check them out down below in the Mortality Section 05.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our Slice of the Pie still keeps growing...

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.

For the first time since I've been documenting our slice of the global pie
with regard to Declared and Active Cases, we have had a fairly decent drop
in both categories. I'd like to see this continue and grow. It may do
that at this time. Things are beginning to look up in some areas. In
others, not so much.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

Well, we did see a rise in the growth of Cases yesterday, but it wasn't
a large increase. Again, I'll have more to say on this issue down
below.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Those fatality numbers were the largest in six days.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Well, a little better yesterday...

All in all, these numbers aren't too bad.

Yes, we had the same cyclical increase this week like the previous
two. You almost get the feeling you could accurately forcast what
the week's numbers would be inadvance based on the cycle, but once
in a while they surprise us.

Growth, particularely for us (the Blue stacks) has gone down.

For your review...

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

The same comments fit for about each day here.

The one big move going on right now, is the U. K. and it's growth in
cases. It's rise in Fatalities is also troubling.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?

Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

I think we've talked the Sweden situation to the point we all get it.
It's still interesting to watch. I'm not planning on ending this feature.
I just don't think I need to repeat the same things over and over.

I added the Netherlands in, because it not located all that far from
Sweden, and it's numbers are worse, but not by all that much. It
might be interesting to watch Sweden pass it by, or not. We'll see.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.02% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

There, we made it to a 40% rate of Declared Cases now resolved. 50% is
in our near future. This number will likely grown for short term at least

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Making an effort to provide more mortality numbers these days.

Hopefully these upcoming numbers and charts will help with that.

Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

Here's the chart to go along with those figures.

Looks pretty ominious there doesn't it.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Six days in a row now, the growth of fatalities in the United State has
declined. That's a decent accomplishment these days. We went right
through a Thursday and Friday in there, still going down. This 1,123 was
the smallest on day fatality rate in the United States Since April 4th.
On that day there were 1,501 fatalities. Hope we can keep this string
going.

Here's two charts to go with the above data.

We've doine good here, but the other entities showed a but of
an uptick yesterday.

Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

Our growth has decreased each day, down to 1.63% from 4.34% six days ago.
Looking at it a different way, we've seen a 54.4% drop in growth
over those six days.

Steadily down there, six days...

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

Things are not improving here. Each day we slip a bit more.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.

And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Our numbers of cases haven't looked so bad compared to last Friday, as
we have gone down in number since, but starting on Sunday, we have had
record numbers for each day. That's Sunday, Monday, and now Tuesday.
Hopefully the whole week won't go like that, but it's something we
should be watching.

Despite a lot of areas remaining on Shelter in Place orders until just
recently, I suspect folks have been following those guidelines a lot
less stridently. I don't like seeing a string of higher numbers every
day. We'll see hwo this plays out.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Some interesting figures there for various segments.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There were 212 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 212 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category has the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with 31 top spots on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the Disctrict of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Looks like someone told us we could keep the 41st spot if we were real
good.

Section: 10

Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Courtesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, and Nations²¹⁴
                Four Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the Word in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nazal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

I've not been real good about responding in a timely fashion on these threads. I apologize. I had been putting in quite a bit of time on this, and I'm sort of decompressing a little bit. I'll be responding better in a few days. I appreciate the comments and don't mean any disrespect to any of you.

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[Paul R.]

I apologize. I had been putting in quite a bit of time on this, and I'm sort of decompressing a little bit.

I can imagine!

It looks like we are still in that cycle of higher mid-week results... :-(

Anecdotally, I made a supplies run yesterday, and stores were the busiest I've seen since restrictions went into place in most states. Wal-Mart had a line outside to get in that ran all the way across the front of the store. I'd say 80% plus wearing masks. But at a farm supply store, Rural King, customer mask wearing was maybe 50%. Many masks I saw are, well, not that great (effective), some poorly worn, etc. Better than nothing I suppose. There were less visible mitigation efforts, such as cleaning of registers, not swapping carts @ Aldi's checkout, etc., inside any store I went in, compared to a couple weeks ago. I'd not be surprised to see case levels creep back up unless we get a literally 10x increase in N95 mask production.

I'm still wondering if there is a source for numbers of tests run in the US (per day or per week) vs. how many positives (per day or per week).

Thanks for all the work!

[buckalfa]

Thank you DoughtyOne for your presentations.

[SgtBob]

Why is the CDC only reporting 39,910 deaths due to the Wuhan Floo? Where do you get your information from?

[USS Alaska]

Six days in a row now, the growth of fatalities in the United State has declined. That's a decent accomplishment these days.

No response required, you do such a great job in posting these charts.

My view on the decline is that the numbers crunchers are "saving up" on some deaths so that they can blast Trump in Mid-May, just like that day in Mid-April that spiked up to 6,000+, and claim that it was caused by a premature opening of the country.

Orange man bad, he's at fault because your great aunt, aged 89, with a bad heart and weighing 230 pounds, died because TRUMP opened America.

[DoughtyOne]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[billyboy15]

“Many masks I saw are, well, not that great (effective), some poorly worn, etc. Better than nothing I suppose.”

They can do more harm than good if not worn and changed properly. Wearing the same mask from one location to the next merely transmits any contaminate the mask traps. To even begin to be effective a mask must be changed whenever your location changes similar to what Drs and Nurses do when they move from patient to patient.

[RaceBannon]

bump!

[Zhang Fei]

[It looks like we are still in that cycle of higher mid-week results... :-( ]

---

I expect the virus doesn’t actually take weekends off. It’s more or less the same reason that Monday cars assembled in Detroit tended to have quality problems - after-effects from alcohol or other binges.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Here is that data on cumulative tests and daily change since 24 Apr. If you divide the daily new tests by the new cases that might approximate the % positive. But keep in mind that a lot of people are tested two or three times.

Florida is the only state I know of that is recording the number of people who have been tested for the first time as to whether they are positive or negative. You may want to check the data from your state to see what they are doing.

24-Apr 5,015,602
25-Apr 5,279,237 263,635
26-Apr 5,470,464 191,227
27-Apr 5,696,928 226,464
28-Apr 5,919,847 222,919
29-Apr 6,139,911 220,064
30-Apr 6,391,887 251,976
1-May 6,699,878 307,991
2-May 6,931,132 231,254
3-May 7,196,740 265,608
4-May 7,462,431 265,691
5-May 7,727,811 265,380

[Presbyterian Reporter]

This is from—

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Read the CDC explanation of the 39,910 deaths

[Godzilla]

bttt

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

Orange man bad, he's at fault because your great aunt, aged 89, with a bad heart and weighing 230 pounds, died because TRUMP opened America.

There are more than 20,000 positive cases still in NJ Nursing homes. NJ.gov Covid 19 dashboard. There are still more than 14,000 Covid 19 positive "serious cases" in the ICU setting.

Hopefully, many of them will survive. But some of those will not. There are many more deaths to come and they will have nothing to do with relaxing the lockdown. I agree, the media will not inform the public where the real tragedy has been committed. Numbers lie, liars lie.

[lurk]

So the first lesson we can take away from this is not to live in a large collectivist metro area.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“””here are still more than 14,000 Covid 19 positive “serious cases” in the ICU setting.”””

---

Are you saying 14,000 in New Jersey? Or is this nationwide?

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

16,000 "serious" Covid-19 cases nationwide.

NJ.gov dashboard there are 1400 Covid-19 cases in ICU in NJ hospitals.... but more than 20,000 cases still in related to our vulnerable NJ nursing home population.

[A Navy Vet]

Thank you for your amazing effort, but please take me off your ping list. I don’t have time to go through all the stats and charts you provide. I read enough about this. With respect, ANV.

[DoughtyOne]

No problem. Done.

[Paul R.]

Thanks. It looks like there’s been a slight increase in testing, on average, over those 12 days, but slight only.