Posted on 05/01/2020 2:25:32 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update
As of 04/30/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscelanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranked with the Other States Territories at Bottom
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Link to Spreadsheet: Our Counties, States, Territories, & Other Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information1
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Data Dashboard...
Thought folks might like to see some numbers right off.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Here we go...
It's actually kind of a mixed bag. We are up from a few days ago, but
seven thousand below last Thursday. Here comes Friday...
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Here's more of our numbers...
The last two days before yesterday, we had about 2,400 fatalities per day.
Yesterday, we had 2,200.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.
It pains me to see these numbers grow larger, they're growing larger more
slowly.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first chart for the Global Outside China Territories
Here we go. 87k today, and who knows about tomorrow...
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
Even at 5,900 fatalities, it's still better than the day before at 10k.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Well, not too good yesterday...
Still edging up. Not liking this neighborhood.
There it is, that typical cyclical increase at this stage of the
week.
For your review...
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
The same comments fit for about each day here.
Germany has been able to keep their deaths down. Nice job...
Both France and Germany have somehow altered thier trajectory
to a better outcome. Looks like the U. K. is about to pass
them by.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
As a good adendum to these figures, I invite folks to check out the
international comparisons, with regard to Deaths Per Million. As with
any metrics here, these are not the total answer to anything. This
is simply more information to consider.
Again today, Sweden looks good compared to larger nations in Europe.
Their neighbors have keep their cases and fatalities down by comparison.
Sweden still looks very competitive against France, Italy, Spain, and
the U. K. Now I don't have a problem with comparing Sweden with the
other Nordic countries, where it doesn't come off well. It still holds
it's own against other top rank nations that have locked down. I'm
not rabidly pro or con when it comes to what Sweden is doing, but I do
find myself defending it more than I really want to, based on what I
see as pointed criticism that isn't exactly reasoned > IMO.
Finland is still looking good.
One more thing about Sweden here. However Sweden ultimately turns out,
I think it is the canary in the coal mine. We all have wondered what
would have happened if we had gone their route. I'm glad to see at
least one nation giving it a go, to satisfy what I believe to the
curiosity of many of us.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.03% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
That recovery percentage continues to climb. It looks like we're headed to
40% and above in the next few days.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Making an effort to provide more mortality numbers these days.
Hopefully these upcoming numbers and charts will help with that.
Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
Here's the chart to go along with those figures.
Looks pretty ominious there doesn't it.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
The numbers fell off considerably for two days. We're back up now.
hopefully lower case increases, will make for lower fatalities down
the road.
We remain down a bit, but it's not the big move I had hoped it wold be, and tomorrow and Friday, who knows?
Here's two charts to go with the above data.
We don't look terrible there, but the global figures are
troublesome.
Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
Well, I guess we should be thankful these numbers weren't higher
coming off some very low days. There is some brighter spots in these
numbers. Other entities have faired a little better than us.
Level yesterday to the day before, but I had hoped it would happen
at a lower level.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
This area looked quite a bit better a few days ago. Back to
normal here. Ug...
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.
And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Looks like we're gradually growing higher on Thursdays.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Some interesting figures there for various segments.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There were 212 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 212 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category has the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with 31 top spots on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the Disctrict of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Section: 10
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories, & Other Entities11, and Nations212
Four Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK earlyAlert
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nazal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK World Health Organization
Morning!
Good morning...
Great work, thanks, haven’t said that in a while.
Have you seen this site:
Interesting data visualization.
Story on the guys behind the site:
Thanks for a very reasonable view on the epidemic in Sweden. Just as you write it is too early to say what the final outcome will be, but eventually there will be a possibility to compare the different strategies.
However, one cannot just look at the overall picture while avoiding the granularity of the events - the real day-to-day policy decisions.
Sweden's policy has not aimed for a herd immunity, but a middle-of-the-road policy of keeping the contagion down (some social distancing, some lock-down) to manage to not overload the health-care system, while avoiding damage to the economy to the largest extent. That may sound like a rather intelligent policy, but rightly or wrongly I feel it came about because our authorities and politicians are unable to make hard decisions. That is my personal opinion and it will take too long to give my reasoning, so take it or leave it. In any way, it is of minor importance to the question of which strategy works the best.
What is more interesting are a number of policy decisions that possibly could have changed the outcome for Sweden.
During the initial period (the first case occurred early in February; a Swedish woman returning from work in China) the health authorities carried out classical epidemiological work - finding the victims, isolating them, tracking the contagion and secondary isolation. This worked very well and no evidence of any community spread was evident until the first days of March.
However, during this time a) the amount of test-kits were not increased to the extent needed b) PPE were not procured to the extent needed c) direct flights from China, South Korea, and Teheran were not stopped, nor were quarantine procedures instigated at the ports of entry (despite plenty of time). Not until the EU demanded partial closure of the borders did this come about. d) The winter holidays (one free week for the school children during February, usually week 7 - 10 for different parts of the country) meant that a lot of people traveled to the Alps for skiing holidays. By week 8 - 9 it was obvious that something very bad was going on in Italy. Despite this the authorities did not just not warn people, they actually encouraged people to travel! e) The effect of this February holiday was that the contagion suddenly overextended the infection tracing and isolation that had worked well during the first month of (the known) contagion period. f) From mid March the testing was no longer carried out on anyone except hospital cases and people in risk categories. g) Again, it took too long for our authorities to isolate the care homes for the elderly. Also, due to the lack of testing equipment the caretakers both in the care-homes and home carers for elderly people living at home could not be tested. h) The authorities did not understand (did not want to...) how badly official information in Swedish are spread in our immigrant rich suburbs. After the "skiers" had been contained there appeared what seemed to be a second wave of contagion in Stockholm. This was mainly in the poor immigrant rich areas. Big problem - of those who actually work living in those areas, a large portion are cleaners (hospitals) or nursing staff in hospitals, care-homes etc. Our authorities did not see this coming until it was much too late and the contagion had galloped through the care-homes.
There are much more to be said, but these policy mistakes are enough to explain the relatively large death rate in Sweden, and mainly Stockholm (where the February holidays took place week 9, when the contagion in Italy was rampant).
It may be that our strategy is more vulnerable to mistakes than a complete lock-down, however I feel that it would not have been too hard to avoid these mistakes given politicians and administrators mentally prepared and trained to handle an emergency situation like this. Unfortunately, we have not had such governance since the end of the Cold War, when everlasting peace, prosperity, and health broke out!
Just saw your nasal irrigation article link for the first time. I’ve been using a powered nasal irrigation machine for 10 years or more. Highly recommended, even outside of it possibly saving your life from COVID-19. Great for use if you have a head cold, URI, bad hay fever in pollen season, etc. I’ve got an older Grossan machine, which is also NeilMed. Sinupulse is similar.
https://smile.amazon.com/s?k=sinus+irrigation+machine&ref=nb_sb_noss_1
Any of these are under $100.
I recommend using distilled water. I slightly warm it in a Pyrex measuring cup in the microwave, pour into the machine reservoir, then add the salt and mix.
After reading the article you linked, I think I may start using mine weekly during this time just on general principles.
I have been looking all over for some reports of autopsy material, especially cerebral pathology and especially helpful would be a clincopathological correlation with CT/MRI imaging with the Path. Slides. Like we used to do. Can’t find it anywhere. Turns out no one does autopsies anymore. They are “icky”. Plus American Pathologists have decided the “risk is too great”. What the hell happened? The autopsy used to be “The Red Rose of Medicine. Too bad. So many questions could be answered at a glance and there’s no shortage of material but it would seem, nobody is looking. A real shame.
Everywhere you look for clincopathological correlation it seems the folks doing the work are still thinking this is a “Pulmonary Disease”. Nobody is even looking at the brain. Curious.
https://svn.bmj.com/content/early/2020/04/01/svn-2020-000382
Here is probably the best article I can find. March 20th so almost current. Notice they point out other articles where “as many as 1/3 of patients have Neurological symptoms at the time of presentation and the pulmonary symptoms always preceded the neurological ones. Notice they point to the high frequency of “psychotic” symptoms among the “neurological symptoms”. To be expected with. “Mesial temporal lobe lesions”. Characteristic syndromic disorder.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1538-7836.2005.01057.x
Here is an article that goes into the history of various animal models of microemboli and how they were created, etc. i have seen a video on the internet in the past that i can no longer find of micro cinematography of micro emboli actually moving through the capillary beds of a rabbit ear. It’s fascinating. Before the manipulation the blood is streaming through the capillaries in a laminar fashion with the RBCs almost lining up like Rouleux, then after the ADP activation of platelets the microemboli start rolling through the capillaries like “tumble weeds” and you can clearly see a huge increase in viscosity and a reduction in the density of RBCs transiting the capillaries as well as a serious decrease in velocity of the RBCs.
I saw on TV last night that some WHO board member was recommending the Sweden model.
I am now going to have to re-think my Swedish model support.
If Dr. Mengele, from the vaunted World Health Organization is for it, I better re-check my position.
Today is May 1 at 9:25 EDT and the CDC’s latest data on corona virus is as of April 18, 2020.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
It is past time to Drain the Swamp at CDC.
Now that we are seeing daylight to this hoax and some of our states are beginning to come to their senses, is there a place where we can see daily data on the infections and deaths?
My expectation is there will likely be a slight surge in infections as the states begin to open up because the masses have been locked in their homes and not exposed to this virus as we would normally experience with an infectious disease (colds, flu, etc.). I believe that is the next important set of data to track. We’ve got 50 states and their experience might be productive for the rest of us.
Let me clarify that last comment, “is there a place where we can see daily data on the infections and deaths?” I should have said, “by state.”
Thanks for the good report. Made a lot of sense. Some of this stuff seems so obvious looking back.
I like that and was going to link it at the bottom of my
reports, but the last update was 03/15. Too bad...
Thank you for the comments. Glad you have that ability.
It’s not something I’d ever run into before, and I’m not
equipped to do this.
Some day... smile...
Interesting points about the brain and this virus’ effect
on it.
One of the telltale signs is taste and smell efficiency. I
would suggest that’s a real tip-off that the brain is being
affected.
LOL, you may be on to something there.
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