COVID-19 Update - 04/29/2020

My own workup | 04/28/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update

As of 04/27/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscelanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranked with the Other States Territories at Bottom
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Link to Spreadsheet: Our Counties, States, Territories, & Other Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information²
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Link Directly to Specific Section

This feature was a good idea in concept, but when I saw how it was
working in reality, I couldn't keep it as a feature.

It was reloading the whole thread with each click. That puts too
much stress on resorces. I'm sure it's a pain on computers with
less memory too. As it is, loading the thread once is enough of a
burden. Sorry, we gave it a shot.

Promising Signs

Over the past few days, we have seen some very nice numbers. I wanted
to claim a big improvement, and undeniably for a few days we did see
smaller numbers, both cases and fatalities.

Today the fatality count rose back up. As for the Case numbers, they
rose too, but we are still way under the numbers we were seeing last week.

In addition to these two indicators, my system automatically checks the
Mortality rates and the rates of other various metrics, to detect better
trends. Some of these have shown real promise over the last two weeks.
I'll address them.

As Fatalities and Recoveries come in, my system automatically assesses the
Mortality rates. It's kind of a hit and miss dynamic, becasue it relies
on the reporting of Recoveries, which I'm not confident are always reported.
There's also the issue of massive Cases being reported each day, and it's
just inpossible for the Recoveries to keep up, based on that alone. The
Mortality rates are wildly high until the last stages of cases being
resolved. I don't herald them for that reason. The one thing they do
keep track of though, is change. Over the last two weeks the mortality
rate on the Global scene outside China, has dropped from 23.23% to 19.54%.
That reflects a positive move. If we go back four weeks, we're talking
about a 27.66% move to that same 19.54%. That is good. It represents
movement in the right direction.

Another metric I keep track of is the percentage of declared cases that
have been resolved. On 04/03/20 that figure stood at 25.534%. Today
that figure resides at 37.375%. That is another very good movement
in a good direction. Right now it is growing at about 0.50% to 0.60%
per day.

Fatalities rose back up today. We're looking at 2,600. While that is
not good, it takes cases to feed them, and cases have dropped off
considerably. Last week we were seeing upper 80 to 105k days.
So far this week, we're seeing 70 to 75k days. This isn't going to
be a straight line situation. We'll still have up days and lows days.
I do believe we are seeing good signs that we have seen the last of
massive days for a while, but then Thursday and Friday are coming.

Lets face it, we're in a better place at the moment. It's not just
a fluke. I think we appreciate that it's not higher, and look for
even better days ahead. We are making progress. Viruses suck, and
we have this one's number. The human race is a tough bunch. We're
going to kick this things rear before long. Hang in there.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Okay start smiling a little now, as a warm-up.

While we did have a little larger growth otday, you can look back and
see where we've recently been. 25.3k is a lot better than the 35-39k
range we were in four to six days ago. Lets see how we do on Thursday
and Friday this week.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here's more of our numbers...

The number of fatalities remain low again today. It was up a little over
the growth the previous day, but it was no where near the 2000 plus range
we've been in. Very nice.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.

We are trying to break lower here, but it's not happening yet. We are close
though, as evidenced by some negative numbers in there, and smaller growth.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first chart for the Global Outside China Territories

That one day growth there is the second lowest figure since March 30th.
Even if things go up again tomorrow, these last two days would be hard
to explain if the direction hasn't taken a turn. Another day or two
would be nice to see how close to this or better we can manage.

That's what I wrote yesterday, and I think today plays into that also.
we're clearly at a new lower level at this time. Again, Thursday and
Friday loom large.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Fatality rates edged higher here. The growth in active cases is ot as
prounced as it once was. We are resolving more cases, and that is
offsetting them. Fatalities are included in that, but there are
decent recovery numbers also.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Well, not too good yesterday...

The level remained constant at this new count location. That's
a clear, at least temporary, improvement.

We do need to take note of this charge, and where we are in the
high low case load cycle. We're in the familiar dip going back
weeks. Hopefully we can get a break on large numbers this week.

Don't hold your breath...

This chart won't show much retraction. Averaging the days cuts
both ways. We don't see wild spikes up or down.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Germany has been able to keep their deaths down. Nice job...

Both France and Germany have somehow altered thier trajectory
to a better outcome.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?

Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

As a good adendum to these figures, I invite folks to check out the
international comparisons, with regard to Deaths Per Million. As with
any metrics here, these are not the total answer to anything. This
is simply more information to consider.

Sweden still looks very competitive against France, Italy, Spain, and
the U. K. Now I don't have a problem with comparing Sweden with the
other Nordic countries, where it doesn't come off well. It still holds
it's own against other top rank nations that have locked down. I'm
not rabidly pro or con when it comes to what Sweden is doing, but I do
find myself defending it more than I really want to, based on what I
see as pointed criticism that isn't exactly reasoned > IMO.

Finland is still looking good.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.03% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

That recovery percentage continues to climb. It looks like we're headed to
40% and above in the next few days.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Making an effort to provide more mortality numbers these days.

Hopefully these upcoming numbers and charts will help with that.

Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

Here's the chart to go along with those figures.

Looks pretty ominious there doesn't it.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

The numbers fell off considerably for two days. We're back up now.
hopefully lower case increases, will make for lower fatalities down
the road.

Here's two charts to go with the above data.

This time the seven day averaging chart looked very promising,
despite a little uptick there.

Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

Well, I guess we should be thankful these numbers weren't higher
coming off some very low days. There is some brighter spots in these
numbers. Other entities have faired a little better than us.

The uptick on the end isn't too good. Would like to see that fade off
tomorrow and the next few days. No thinking that's going to happen.

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

This area looked quite a bit better yesterday. Back to normal here.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.

And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Coming off the two lowest reporting days of the week, I'm bracing for
the next three days.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Some interesting figures there for various segments.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There were 212 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 212 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category has the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with 31 top spots on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the Disctrict of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Section: 10

Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Courtesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories, & Other Entities¹¹, and Nations²¹²
                Four Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   earlyAlert

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nazal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[Greg123456]

For the last few weeks there has been an uptick of Covid-19 deaths every Tuesday. I think some states are two days behind and report Saturday and Sunday on Tuesday, thus skewing tje numbets. Conversely, Sunday’s numbers are always low.

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks for the mention Greg.

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

Good morning.

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

Good morning.

[wastoute]

Morning!

[USS Alaska]

I watch section 7, top 200 USA counties {areas} because I live in W PA and I have not seen a single hot spot West of State College {the center of the state}, but maybe I missed one.

The area around Pittsburgh {within a 50 mile radius} is fairly well populated, but I haven't seen an out break.

I remain hopeful and the people here are out and about.

Most want to get back to some thing more normal, which will happen as soon as the pols decide that the deploreable people can get their hair and nails cut at a shop.

I will never trust the communist china numbers, and only barely trust any numbers.

[billyboy15]

While I admire the effort here I am afraid the dependence on the “reported” number of infected individuals and deaths actually caused by the China Virus renders the report questionable.

GIGO.

[patriotfury]

Wonder if the “overall” better micro and macro U.S. trend numbers are related to mutation, and or “heard immunity” beginning to manifest.

Great job by the way.

Regardless of all the numbers reporting politics and games played, this is still hands down, the best daily “one stop shop” tracker I have seen anywhere.

[wastoute]

You can find #s all over the place. CFR of 5%. “Real” CFR of 0.19%. The “old way” you had to be “sick” to have an “outcome”. By definition Asymptomatic people are not “sick”. So looking at Deaths/Recoveries you get some 29% deaths as an outcome. Have an agenda? Pick a number.

[RaceBannon]

bump

[Nifster]

Yup. Catching up from low week end numbers. That’s why a five or seven day average has more meaning...

[Godzilla]

bttt

[RaceBannon]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/24/us/new-york-halal-meals-ramadan-trnd/index.html

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“””For the last few weeks there has been an uptick of Covid-19 deaths every Tuesday. I think some states are two days behind and report Saturday and Sunday on Tuesday, thus skewing tje numbets. Conversely, Sunday’s numbers are always low.”””

---

You are correct.

The overpaid and underperforming government bureaucrats at the Federal, State, and Local level do not work on Saturday and Sunday and no amount of crisis will force their union bosses to alter the worker’s schedule.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Since I live in Florida, I follow the covid report by the Florida Department of Health.

https://floridadisaster.org/globalassets/covid19/dailies/covid-19-data-—daily-report-2020-04-28-1004.pdf

Today, on page three of the above report they added Hospitalizations by Age Group.

The numbers confirm what we have been saying for weeks. Those who are under age 65 are low risk.

If a person under age 65 and they are hospitalized with covid, 8% have died.

Whereas, if a person is above age 65 and they are hospitalized with covid, 34% have died.

Thus far in Florida 203 people under the age of 65 have died from covid. What we still do not have information on is the comorbidities of those 203 people.

For the FReepers, what is your state reporting on covid deaths? What level of detail is your state reporting?

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Huge jump in serious/critical cases today to 19,098

UP 4000 from yesterday!!!

I sure hope the reason for the jump is one of three reasons:

1. The hospitals throughout the USA have plenty of spare ICU capacity and have moved covid patients to ICU to give them more oversight.
2, The hospitals are adopting the Cleveland Clinic strategy of putting covid patients on a ventilator early and getting good results.
3. The folks at worldometer made a mistake.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Belgium continues to be in real trouble. They have 647 deaths per million people.

The population of Belgium is 11,500,000 and they have had 7,501 deaths.

By comparison Florida’s population is 21,600,000 and we have had 1171 deaths.

[Badboo]

West Virginia has a pretty good dashboard. They keep improving it. See
https://dhhr.wv.gov/COVID-19/Pages/default.aspx

We are opening up. As long as cum. positives stay below 3% of cum. tested. Governor has a 3 week plan to open, this is week one - outpatient care, elective procedures allowed. Week 2 - small business less than 10 empl., outdoor dining, churches, funerals with distancing,. Week 3-6 everything else. See https://coronavirus.wvgovstatus.com/WV_Strong_The_Comeback.pdf

WV was the last to get test kits and PPE. Now we lead most all comparable and neighboring states in improved indicators. 42,000 tests, 1095 positives, 38 deaths. Lowest percent positive, lowest CFR, highest percent tested.

Wish he wouldn’t do that but the Governor has been touting the state as a good place to escape the crowded rathole cities. Strong econ dev incentives. Clean air and water. Just ignore that and listen to me - don’t move here, you won’t like it.

Given the out of control obesity, diabetes, heart and lung issues here, the actual impact has been miraculous.

The nursing homes took a hit, like everywhere, 21 of the 38 deaths. A week ago the governor ordered every resident and staff member to be tested and then later retested. That has been done.