Posted on 04/28/2020 4:13:42 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
A coronavirus pandemic model has increased the predicted US death toll from the disease to 74,000 – up 14,000 from the previous estimate, according to a report.
“Our forecast now is for 74,000 deaths. That’s our best estimate. The range is pretty wide because there’s a lot of unknown factors there, but our best estimate is going up, and we see these protracted, long peaks in some states,” Dr. Chris Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Help Metrics and Evaluation, told CNN.
“We’re also seeing signs in the mobility data that people are getting more active, and that’s also feeding into our assessment,” he added.
The model had previously predicted 60,000 deaths from the bug.
Murray said the new data would affect his institute’s recommendations on when social distancing measures could be eased on a state-by-state basis, adding that they would move past the mid-May to early June dates they had previously suggested.
He said he believes states are opening too soon.
“If you’re focused on trying to protect people’s health, then the answer is absolutely. It’s a safer strategy to get the number of infections in the community down to a really low level and then testing and contact tracing and isolation can work,” Murray told CNN.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
“ the model’ had previously predicted over 100,000 deaths - that was about 3 weeks ago
“ the model “ is about as useful as a 30 weather forecast
“ the model” is heavily affected by the management or mismanagement of healthcare decisions in the state of NY, which should be severed from the national model
Probably pretty close, or maybe upwards to 80,000.
The testing widens, the infected ( and largely asymptomatic) numbers grow
What is this really useful for.
Fauci and Gates vaccine obsession.
No. The longer we’re locked in, the more our immune system deteriorates.
On the bright side, weekly deaths dropped to 3,236 from 8,103 the previous week. The flu season is ending.
There’s two death statistics. One compared to number of cases and one compared to total population. The statisticians only want to state the death to case ratio. Death to total population ratio tells you that you have a better chance of getting hit by lightening on a clear day.
IHME’s Murray told CNN. will now recommend later date for ending social distancing measures, moving from mid-May to June. nice.
8 Apr: IHME Model Revised Again, Cutting Coronavirus Death Projection by Over 35 Percent
by Tobias Hoonhout
Death projections in the IHME model, which was used by the White House to inform a warning that the country was facing a “best case scenario” of 100,000 and 200,000 deaths, have been cut by an additional 20,000 since Sunday’s initial revision to 81,766, to now project 60,415 total deaths in the U.S. The estimate of needed hospital beds was also cut nearly in half from 141,000 to 94,249, with needed ICU beds cut by nearly one-third to under 20,000.
Before Sunday’s revision, the model was projecting 93,531 total deaths and a total bed shortage of 87,674, good for reductions of 35.4 and 71.6 percent so far this week, respectively...
Both Birx and fellow task-force member Dr. Anthony Fauci said last week that the country could face between 100,000 and 200,000 total deaths from the pandemic, regardless of whether Americans continue to comply with the most stringent social distancing guidelines...
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/ihme-model-revised-again-cutting-coronavirus-death-projection-by-over-35-percent-in-days/
pure politricks.
And therein is the conundrum. 14,000 increase in projected fatalities if opening economy now, vs., how many more deaths if keeping the economic shutdown? 14,000 is less than 300/state, in my state that’s 5 per county. Isthat worth an economic disaster with long term cascading effects, and related deaths, we probably haven’t even thought of yet?
Uh oh.
I predict people will die like they do every day by a number of different reasons.
This COVID crap is no worse than the flu and few deaths are actually the result of the virus itself but as has been stated numerous times by underlying conditions.
The mortality numbers being used are inaccurate at best ad highly inflated.
When this thing started getting the news coverage they were saying 2 million deaths in the United States without quarantining. With the quarantine between 200 thousand and 500 thousand. Then as high as 50 thousand. Now 74 thousand. They can’t get their numbers right as far as I can tell.
Thanks for that link. Obviously all of these numbers are just estimates (including the Covid ones). While I don’t trust the CDC on everything, I do believe they are trying their best on this estimating business.
Did it predict those Nursing Homes deaths in New York?
The big number giveth (in this case the Fearpers will dance) but still and think of it..:even assuming the inflated death number (6,000 ALONE in NYC likely true deaths are 2/3 the reported number) this means they are forecasting a decelation (drastic) over the next five weeks
If we take the media lies at face value of 55,000 deaths in six weeks then an additional 15,000 in five weeks show exactly what pence said. That this will be behind us by Memorial Day
They have unwittingly confirmed what we have said all along. And as a bonus assuming the 70,000 number, the true death rate after excluding the possible and presumptive is 48,000
Take aways
1. Models unwittingly prove that we are on the down slide and the numbers are collapsing
2. Death rate will turn out to be around 0.1% with deaths equivalent to a seasonal flu
3. The data, even the manipulated data are bringing into clear relief what previously was a murky model
4. IMHE and all the people advocating on going lock down and social distancing are now showing this to be about control of free people instead of population health management
Which stooge will be first to report “Trump kills 14,000 more”?
I don’t think they realize that we don’t believe a damned thing they say anymore. Their “models” are straight out of the rectal database.
Exactly. Especially when compared to 330 MILLION people.
So what happened to the original 2.2 million US coronavirus dead model then?
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