Posted on 04/27/2020 10:14:33 PM PDT by Vendome
"The health crisis is unlike anything we have ever experienced," Calhoun said, before detailing just how far the air travel industry has fallen. With passenger demand down more than 95% from early March, airlines in the U.S. have parked more than 2,800 planes, and airlines globally are on pace to lose $314 billion this year, according to the International Air Transport Association.
As a result, Calhoun says airlines are "grounding fleets, deferring airplane orders, postponing acceptance of completed orders, and slowing down or stopping payments."
Calhoun says, "It will take two to three years for travel to return to 2019 levels and an additional few years beyond that for the industry's long-term growth trend to return." When the turmoil in the airline industry does stabilize, he says "the commercial market will be smaller, and our customers' needs will be different."
(Excerpt) Read more at npr.org ...
Just think: If people won't be flying where won't they be flying to? Not to some Mickey Mouse amusement park
Not to some venue where you can try your luck at roulette, have your cards shuffled or crap out. Oh, and concerts, magic shows and ventriloquists are done.
Dollywood? Nope
Branson Missouri. No when to fold em
Manhattan? Not much
Paris? It's gay anyway...
London? Place is no more than a Piccadilly Circus
Madrid? The Prado Museum is so last year
Chile? Valle Nevado has some hot women but.....
Cancun? Use to fly in there and go south to other towns. spent the day once and realized it was America with an Accent. Who'd wanna go and who can afford it?
China? LOL! Nothing from there lasts very long. Probably not even the memories...
Anyway, if it will take about 5 years for growth to take off again in the airline industry, that doesn't bode well for any other industry.
Concerts, Symphony, Opera, Ballet, Broadway, Off Broadway, West End, Children's Musical Theater, all done....
The big one?
Any business trip that would be cheaper served with Zoom or Skype will be zoomed or skyped.
Lots of companies have figured that out now.
Sadly i see nothing ever being the same again anywhere
Well with Dr. Farce in charge.. Throwing all that fear out there.. Once people realize they’ve been had they will fly go and drive to where they want too.. Should have watched Tucker tonight.. All this was a sham! Why so Trump would lose in November.. I’ll bet New York’s deaths are really half or a 1/3 of what they report.. They the hospitals were getting big buck for Coronavirus deaths and patients. New York just added 3000 to the numbers just to get more cash.. They didn’t die from the -19 disease but they counted them anyway...
In this case, the cure is worse than the disease. More likely if we did nothing, we would see 200,000 dead Americans. Maybe 250,000. Sad, yes. But ultimately little impact on our civilization. Now all of this panic......different story. One thing for sure, we do not have the fortitude our ancestors had when they conquered the West during Manifest Destiny.
O’Rly, Calhoun? I am sure the 737 MAX debacle or the 777X or even your problem of coming up with a middle-market jet has had nothing to do with Boeing’s recovery rate, as well, huh? /s
It sounds like he is trial ballooning an airline bail out.
Sadly I agree with him. People are going to be very leery about flying and breathing recycled air
Personally, as soon as the border is reopened, my sister and I are going to Florida! Should be some great deals to be had!
Yes. People are used to working from home. Those who can will continue to do so.
The business market will definitely be affected in perpetuity even after the crisis has abated. Such trips will be less in frequency and volume, and even though airlines are trying to reach out (all but one of the carriers I use has sent several messages) that is unlikely to be sufficient for most. Even if they gave cheaper corporate rates, cheaper is still more expenses than zero cost (and that is not considering that flights also mean hotel and other related costs).
Unfortunately for the airline industry, there will be an overhang of business travel that simply will not be coming back. It may ‘only’ be 20-30% that is not coming back, but that 20-30% will have an impact on their bottom line.
Good post Spetz. I remember the first test 747 flight from I believe early 1968, or 1969. I lived in Seattle then and it was a huge gamble by Boeing at the time. A year later I flew on one to Holland. Damn, what a machine!!!
Yup, Boeing bet the ranch on the 747. The first gen engines were very unreliable. When they took it to the Paris Air Show they weren’t sure the engines would make it all the way. Yikes!
Calhoun says, “It will take two to three years for travel to return to 2019 levels...”
I doubt Calhoun said that. NPR is a deceptive rag. The punishment for believing NPR is to be cynical and depressed.
Good news. Americans have a burning desire for freedom and the rest of the world does, too. The freeways will get traffic jams, LAX will get full parking lots and Walmart sales will skyrocket soon.
Today 4/27 the LAX parking lots are 20% full. Last week the LAX parking lots were 5% full.
Well, let me test your theory against mine.
I live in SFO Bay Area and there are no flights, eerily.
I will drive by San Jose in the morning, Oakland and SFO in the afternoon and report what their gates look like.
Oh, and I have two private jet companies who are customers.
When I was a kid in Seattle in the 1950’s and 1960’s Boeing was the standard, Of all manufacturing things. Mainly, as a kid, because so many of my fellow young classmates Dad’s were employed there. (My Dad is better than your Dad because Boeing etc. etc. etc...) Many years on and 35 years of Hi-Rise construction, and working on some Boeing smaller structures on the west coast, Boeing is still ‘the man’ as far as I am concerned! An incredible outfit!
NO, it will be a long recovery for Boeing, who was going to be bankrupt if it wasn’t for COVID-19.
This company literally had every flyer with slogans like “If it ain’t Boeing, I ain’t going” and such.
Then they decided to do whatever line of bad decision making it took to get to the 737DISASTER, 2 plane crashes before they admitted their stuff was broken!
Really... whatever.
And yeah, the pilots weren’t trained properly, but guess what, Boeing said they didn’t need anymore, and that is what sold the plane.
Bump
Tubes packed with people — that’s not where it’s at in today’s world.
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