COVID-19 Update - April 27th, 2020

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update

As of 04/26/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscelanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranked with the Other States Territories at Bottom
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Link to Spreadsheet: Our Counties, States, Territories, & Other Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Global Fatalities Milestone

I may have found a way to outsmart COVID-19. Early this morning I
published the prediction that the global community would see it's
three millionth case yesterday. Going back seven days, every one of
their totals added to the yesterday's starting number, would have
cleared the three million mark. So Covid-19 showed me.

Maybe I should predict there will definetly be over 35,000 global
cases added tomorrow, and see what happens.

Okay, okay... the global community will see it's three millionth case
today.

Sweden

We have been looking at numbers of Sweden compared to it's neighbors.
In that group, Sweden doesn't look too hot comparitively. This evening
I took note of it's standing compared to France, Germany, Italy, Spain,
and the U. K. You may want to check that out in the international
comparisons Section: 09. Look at the Deaths Per Million standing. Sweden
has a lower figure than any of those five nations.

Earlier tonight someone too great exception to this comparison, since
Sweden counts it's deaths pretty close to the vest. That's reasoned to
point out, however... if Sweden comes in under those other nations, we
can pad their numbers to a degree and they are still competitive.

I'm not making the case that Sweden has found the exact secret to all
this. I just don't think it's all wrong on it either, and I don't want
to dismiss it.

One Millionth Case?

Now I'm gunshy. Should I predict the U. S. goes over it's one millionth
case today? I think it will.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Okay start smiling a little now, as a warm-up.

We did not continue our upward direction yesterday. We dropped off
considerably. Yesterday was a Sunday, and Sundays and Mondays are
the two lowest days of the week, reporting wise. We may see another
low day today, but I'm not sure that means we have arrived yet.

The 24,426 number is certainly a lot better than the 35-39 range
we had been in, so I don't want to downplay it too much. Hopefully
we are dropping off. Stay tuned...

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here's more of our numbers...

Okay, here's the problem. When I see cases and fatalities drop large like
this together, it seems to indicate a lack of reporting. You see, if the
new cases drop one day significantly, the cases in the mix already, should
sustain the fatality number for days on end.

We've been up around 2,000 fatalities per day, and here we have 1,150
yesterday. That seems a little too good to be true, and coupled with
a very low report of new cases, I'm highly suspect of this.

Maybe I'll have to eat my words tomorrow or the next day. Tell you what
if these numbers are the new norm, I'll gladly eat my words.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.

The slice of the Declared Cases doesn't look so bad today, but the slice
of the Active Cases... not so good.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first chart for the Global Outside China Territories

Truly great numbers if they continue on this way. I've had my say on the
possible reporting issue above. Hope I was wrong.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

The fatalities were down here also. Nice.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Well, not too good yesterday...

This showed nice improvement. Lets hope it continues.

The first two charts looked pretty good, but the third seems to carry
over numbers from days before and remain high.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Germany is looking pretty good there. They've kept their deaths down pretty
well. Compared to the others, their numbers are impressive.

France seems to have taken a turn in the right direction. In fact both
France and Germany have veered away from the rapid rise in cases compared
to the others.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?

Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

As a good adendum to these figures, I invite folks to check out the
international comparisons, with regard to deaths per million. As with
any metrics here, these are not the total answer to anything. This
is simply more information to consider.

Finland is still looking good.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.04% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

That recovery percentage continues to climb. It's has grown close to 10.0%
since 04/03, when it bottomed out. That will impact our active cases. If
it continues for another two weeks, we'll be up around 40.00%. I like the
thought of that.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Making an effort to provide more mortality numbers these days.

Hopefully these upcoming numbers and charts will help with that.

Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

Here's the chart to go along with those figures.

Looks pretty ominious there doesn't it.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Numbers fell off considerably yesterday. A downward tick was welcomeed,
I'm just hoping figures over the next day or two don't take their pound
of flesh to make up for it.

Here's two charts to go with the above data.

Again, that seven day averaging chart didn't show the drop as well,
the others did.

Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

Too good to be true? We'll see. Hope not...

Looks nice...

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.

And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

There's one of the reasons why I'm not to glib about the nice drop in
the numbers reported yesterday. Sundays and Mondays are two days on
the low end of the spectrum normally.

If you're missing the listing of the states here, please check out
Section 08.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

Some interesting figures there for various segments.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There were 212 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 212 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category has the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with 31 top spots on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the Disctrict of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

This is our highest positioning yet. We were 42nd a few days ago.

Section: 10

Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Courtesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK WorldoMeters

LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories, & Other Entities¹¹, and Nations²¹²
Four Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.

LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK earlyAlert

LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK Nazal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex

LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK World Health Organization

https://twitter.com/MEMRIReports/status/1254710034644205569?s=20

MEMRI
@MEMRIReports
·
18m
Lebanese International Affairs Expert Abdo Al-Laqis: COVID-19 Was Made by the U.S. and Deliberately Sent to China; It Is Designed to Kill off People over 65, Because They Are Unproductive

Everyone has a theory...

Smile...

So many agendas at work there just isn’t any room for a guy just trying to get by.

I hear ya. Duck!

LOL

Been ducking a lot lately. LOL.

I’m starting to think just maybe the “secret” that “our guys” are trying to keep a lid on is we have been thinking with Gain of Function in Coronavirus as well. Ours just hasn’t gotten loose.

Some of the creation involved with these things, seems
foolish to me.

I’m sure there are worse things out there too.

It sure does open your eyes to what the possibilities are.

Turns out COVID is just a wake up. Will we learn the correct lesson? Doesn’t look promising, frankly. People are being spun like tops and it’s not totally their fault. Some of the spinning is undoubtedly coming from our own 37Alphas.

One clue i have discovered is that if you find yourself dealing with somebody whose perceptions are leaning heavily on a Conspiracy Theory, don’t bother them.

“It is easier to fool people than convince them they have been fooled.” Mark Twain.

The average deaths per million in France, Italy, Spain and the UK is 182% greater than Sweden.

All of those four nations have had Communist style lock downs {just like the USA lock down} while Sweden is almost open, with just the elderly being asked to self quarantine.

I know that Sweden looks bad when compared to it's neighbors, but how about when you compared it to Michigan, which has the same population size? These stats have one thing in common, they are dependent upon the real accuracy of the reporting doctors, and most of the numbers are inflated.

They are inflated at the direction of the WHO, NIH, CDC and every other medical organization that benefits financially when there is a medical emergency, real or juiced up.

Sweden is a country of ten million people. Look at the # new deaths daily. So far their “curve” is still noise. It may stay there and Sweden may never have an epidemic. One of their leaders is quoted yesterday as saying that “people should not be believing we are doing ‘nothing’, 90% reduction in tourism, shops closed....”. IOW there ARE doing something it’s just not at the request or demand of the government.

If the virus circulating in Sweden is the same one as in Spain, or Italy, or NYC things may change there. One thing you can COUNT on as what does happen there will be “wildly spun” as EVIDENCE I WAS RIGHT by just about everybody who actually knows very little about all this.

But it will be entertaining.

towards the end Dr. Ioannidis talks about Sweden. says it shouldn’t be compared with Norway, for example, because population is more concentrated in Sweden. says better to compare it with Switzerland, altho that doesn’t tell you everything either.

sweating over all the daily numbers, purposelessly, is a waste of time:

Youtube: 1h12m58s: 20 Apr: Perspectives on the Pandemic | Dr. John Ioannidis Update: 4.17.20 | Episode 4
posted by Journeyman Pictures
In this long-awaited follow-up to his interview in late March, Dr. John Ioannidis discusses the results of three preliminary studies, (including his latest, which shows a drastically reduced infection fatality rate); the worrisome effects of the lockdown; the Swedish approach; the Italian data; the ups and downs of testing; the feasibility of “contact tracing”, and much more.
Watch previous episodes of Perspectives on the Pandemic here (LINKS)
Here are the links to his studies (LINKS)...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwPqmLoZA4s

One of the things I find particularly entertaining is that some of the same people who have insisted “so many people are going to die we HAVE to give millions of people Plaquenil” have now decided that “so few people are dying we can all go about our business.” I have to ask myself if they are even aware.

Pretty much exactly why I have always insisted on ignoring everything but the # of new deaths daily. Death is pretty hard to “spin”. They still try (“Look, it’s OVER!” Seemingly unaware they were wrong the LAST time they said “Look, it’s OVER.”)

I admit. I have a bias. Since all my income in retirement comes from the Federal Government i do kind of have a stake in whether the Federal Government falls. But then, I have been anticipating that event for years and I figure if that DOES happen I’m going to be in better shape than 99% of the folks out there so I’m not “terribly” invested in the Federal Government, either.

serious post alert.

I believe it was altered in a lab.

I believe it got out but not on purpose.

I believe the response in China showed even they did not know what it would do if widespread.

I believe they knew that they didnt have a cure or a good method to stop it, so they allowed it to go world wide so that the combined efforts of all doctors would treat it and make the best efforts to fight it together.

I believe they soon saw that it was not the killer we feared, but continued the response as a test of the system, like a war game, to see what response times would be in all walks of society if a real bad virus ever got loose.

I believe leftists saw a Star Trek level event taking place where they could Cloward/Piven the death out of this thing by not letting a good crisis go to waste and use this to create a greater panic to push socialism on countries and yes, the United States.

I believe Trump and his advisors are seeing this, yet, in order to have accurate data on the war game side of this; ie, the response times of manufacturing and health care and societal interaction, he is allowing it to go on until an agreed up date is reached. This accumulated data will be used in planning for when China or any other bad actor releases something that is a real killer. This cannot be revealed to the public as such because of backlash for it would reveal us as guinea pigs despite the need for such data in strategic planning.

The democrats see such an opening to ruin the economy, force everyone to be reliant upon government handouts that they can barely contain themselves to have this handed to them, knowing that Trump cannot just come out and reveal this is just a test at this point.

The destruction of small businesses is catastrophic at this point with maybe as many as 75% of them unable to recover from this. The reduced profits of larger businesses is going to be catastrophic, also, yet they sell so many products made in China and we have no ready to replace domestic manufacturing that is “shovel ready” to replace foreign manufacturing. We will be stuck buying from China and India for a decade until domestic manufacturing can pick up the slack.

The reliance upon government is unavoidable now, for if there are fewer jobs needed because of fewer orders from downstream clients, there will not be orders to keep companies operating at previous levels. Everyone wants a bail out, and a second one and a third and also...health insurance.

Single Payer health insurance, using existing doctors and hospitals, who will be forced to accept the amount the government will insist their work is worth despite last year’s worth of their service. Their worth of service will only be what the government says it is. If they dont like it, they wont get to perform service, they will be forced to do service at the government rate or have no services to do at all.

I do not think I am way of of line here, the logical progression of the evil left knows no bounds, and has no limits.

I’m in Arizona and we’ve had 6500 cases and 275 deaths. We rank 23rd in the country as far as cases, yet 49th when it comes to tests given.

My symptoms of intermittent low-grade fever and fatigue began on March 17th, and I had a constant dry cough that lasted 3 weeks. I’m 66 with hypertension and had the classic symptoms of CoVID, albeit mild. I called the BCBS nurse line to find out what I should do, but she said the guidelines showed I should remain at home and that I didn’t require evaluation. At no point was I offered testing—because it really didn’t exist at that time.

The point of this story is that there are obviously thousands of ppl out there like me that haven’t been counted in the tally of victims. It’s much more prevalent and less deadly than they told us. I am a little irritated, however, to see that Arizona apparently dragged their feet to get their share of tests, especially when compared to Washington, DC. We also rank 49th in the nation when it comes to unemployment benefits. At $240 a week, they are still the same as they were in 1996 when we moved here. 😖

Excellent post. I agree with everything except the speed at which domestic production will return. I am already seeing cottage industries and buy-local agriculture popping up all over. They may be operating our of garages now, but that is how most big enterprises start. Don’t rule the can-do spirit of non-leftist America.