COVID-19 Update - 04/25/2020

My own workup | 04/25/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update

As of 04/24/2020 23:59 PDST

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you'll find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info
Section: 02     the Mortality Report
Section: 03     the United States Situation
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 05     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 06     Miscelanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranked with the Other States
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Link to Spreadsheet: Our Counties, States, Territories, & Other Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information²
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

the United States Passes Another Milestone

Early this morning the 50 states and the District of Columbia passed the 50,000
level of deaths. If you add in our territories, we actually hit the mark before
midnght last night. In Europe they seem to be progressing down the back side
of the curve. Hopefully that will hold and we'll be there within a week or two.

the United States Passes Yet Another Milestone

Sometime a little before noon PDST yesterday, the United States passed the
900 thousand mark of COVID-19 cases.

Section: 02

the Mortality Report

Making an effort to provide more mortality numbers these days.

Hopefully these upcoming numbers and charts will help with that.

Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

Here's the chart to go along with those figures.

Looks pretty ominious there doesn't it.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Here's two charts to go with it.

Well, Friday came back with a vengence today. I'm not liking the numbers,
and I'm checking my data to make sure I haven't don't something wrong, but
I don't see it, if I did.

Our numbers went down for the day, but the Global area outside China was
nearly double it's most recent days. Case numbers were way up. It was
the largest day of growth on record, and extra reporting may have tossed
around a number of our metrics.

Something like that is what we want to see.

Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

This chart tracks he daily inrease over the previous day, in the middle
column there.

We were back under 2,000 for the day. That was a relief.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Looks Like We Fell of the Recovery Truck Yesterday.

Declared Cases in the United States

We continued our upward trend of growth. Look at that 39,049 cases added.
Trump recently said we're doing a lot of testing and finding fewer positives.
Can't tell it from the numbers, but I'm sure he's referencing something we
don't see here.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here's more of our numbers...

Our fatalities for yesterday came in under 2,000. We're essentially struggling
to do better at this point, and it's not working to the degree we wish it would.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.

On the right there. We dropped by a quarter of a percent. I'll take it!

I think it's an interesting indicator on it's own, but it's not really
sufficient. We now have seven sets of data looking at the U. S. vs the
world. We win some and lose some. LLook for these in Section 09.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first chart for the Global Outside China Territories

Yesterday morning I talked about Thursday being bad. Look at that nubmer
of new cases yesterday. Good heavens... The last five days have shown
a steady and building growth. Today's was pretty incredible.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

I was feeling pretty good about five days ago, but yesterday was a bad
day. Now, will it average out over the next few. I sure hope so.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Well, not too good yesterday...

They've moved higher and lower, but keep winding up about where
they aer right now. Enough already...

Here again, that last chart was a seven day averaged chart.
It helps a lot.

Those charts can't hide yesterday's performance on the global stage.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Germany is looking pretty good there. They've kept their deaths down pretty
well.

France seems to have taken a turn in the right direction.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?

Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

I hate to say it, because I want people back at work, but it seems to me
that Sweden has shown what going back to work might wind up doing. I
don't think it has to be that way, if folks are careful. From what I've
seen it doesn't seem like the Swedish people are careful. I may be off
base on that though. I only know what I've seen presented in the limited
media I observe.

Finland is still looking good.

Section: 05

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.05% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

That recovery percentage continues to climb. It's has grown close to 10.0%
since 04/03, when it bottomed out. That will impact our active cases. If
it continues for another two weeks, we'll be up around 40.00%. I like the
thought of that.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.

And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Look at that growth yesterday. It was the highest growth day so far.

I'll keep tracking this for at least a few more weeks to give folks a chance to detect
patterns not only on Fridays, but other days as well.

If you're missing the listing of the states here, please check out
Section 08.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There were 212 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 212 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category has the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with 31 top spots on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the Disctrict of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

In this category I noted four nights ago we were 42nd on this list. Three
nights ago we were 43rd. The last two nights we've been 41st. From
Trump's recent comments, I can tell it's a big deal to him to rise up in
this categore. I think it will happen shortly.

Section: 10

Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Courtesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US States DC⁵¹, Territories⁵⁺, and Counties²⁰⁰
                Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   earlyAlert

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nazal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[wastoute]

Interesting. Thanks. Not to add to your burden BUT can you break out each urban center that is having it’s own epidemic and graph those? NYC, Detroit, Chicago, etc.?

[Diogenesis]

bump

[Presbyterian Reporter]

TOTAL TESTS-—

Yesterday, the USA reached another milestone by having conducted over 5 million tests (5,015,602).

I have a couple of comments:

1. Does anyone have the number of total tests that were reported each day since April 1st? The reason I ask is that we are continuing to see a large number of new cases. I suspect the reason for the new cases is the increase in daily testing since April 1st. But I do not have the numbers to confirm.

2. Gov Ron DeSantis in his daily press briefing brought up the subject of testing and retesting. Here is how it works. If a person tests positive and is sent home, they must be retested in 14 days to see if they are still positive. And if they test positive again, they must come back in 7 days to be tested a 3rd time. So Gov DeSantis was warning people that just because 300,000 tests have been given in Florida, it does not mean that 300,000 people have been tested in Florida..

What Gov DeSantis wants the Florida State Health Dept to do is to separate the ‘first time’ test results from the ‘2nd or 3rd’ retest results.

By making that change, the State of Florida officials and its residents can have a better understanding of the percent of people tested the ‘first time’ who were positive or negative.

As an example, it is one thing to say that 500,000 test results came in today.

Versus saying that 500,000 test results came in today and 100,000 were from people who were tested for the first time and 400,000 were from people who had been tested multiple times.

[RaceBannon]

Another Truthtful Doctor: Bill Gates, Fauci, and Birx criminals. Fake Pandemic, for VACCINE/CHIP YOU

https://www.facebook.com/100017164360009/videos/635767063672100/

[Mouton]

It annoys me each day here in Florida when the agenda driven media begins their coverage with the blanket number of “new” cases by reporting it as a static number. If one digs into the full report posted on line one finds there is a stat called the percentage of positive tests. That percentage has been drifting down each day for almost ten days to now being 9.5%. IOW while there are new cases that number MUST be much lowier than before as the denominator is a big number going in. Furthermore we are still mostly testing people with some kind of symptom. ~1000 people have died in fl from this chink weapon. Tragic for them and their loved ones for sure but does that mean we need stay in our closets forever? For comparison two people were killed on Rte 95 near me. Does that infer I should stay off that road or only drive it in an abrams? The mask thing is really getting to me. Someone noted yesterday if jeans and undies cannot contain a fart how is a piece of material going to contain a virus.

[DoughtyOne]

Trump talked about that in the last day or two, the
declining number of positives...

[PeteB570]

The recovered number will never reflect a true number until this is pretty much over.

We’ll have to subtract the deaths from total cases and assume the rest recovered.

Our state has come right out and said they don’t track recovered cases. I wonder how well other states are tracking the ones set home with mild cases.

[DoughtyOne]

Not sure about that either.

If there are numbers reported, I capture them. I’m not
holding my breath while they prove helpful.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

We are fortunate to have a governor in Florida who stays on top of the situation and is not afraid to tell the health department bureaucrats at the state, county, and city level to get off their butts and give him meaningful numbers.

Florida is currently testing about 15,000 people per day. If 5,000 of those test results are from people who have NEVER been tested before and 1000 came back positive, then we have a big problem.

On the other hand, if 5,000 of those test results are from people who have NEVER been tested before and 100 came back positive, then we have a manageable problem.

When the heath bureaucrats mix the first time tests with the retests, we really do not know how big the problem is.

Good for our Governor DeSantis to shed some light on this problem and I am confident he will get it fixed pronto!!!!!

[Presbyterian Reporter]

On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.

These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.

If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.

Here are the numbers:

Apr 14 Tue 13473
Apr 15 Wed 13487
Apr 16 Thu 13369
Apr 17 Fri 13509
Apr 18 Sat 13551
Apr 19 Sun 13566
Apr 20 Mon 13951
Apr 21 Tue 14016
Apr 22 Wed 14016
Apr 23 Thu 14997
Apr 24 Fri 15097

We had a plateauing of serious/critical cases at 13,500 from April 14 thru April 19. And then a 500 patient jump on Monday . And Thursday we had a 1000 patient increase.

I looked at the worldometer website to see how they collect the serious/critical data: “Today, it represents for the most part the number of patients currently being treated in Intensive Care Unit (ICU), if and when this figure is reported.”

I am hoping the reason behind this recent 1,500 patient increase in serious/critical patients is due to the fact hospitals have many vacant ICU beds. If I were the hospital administrator it would be reasonable to move a covid patient from a regular hospital bed to ICU as they get more care and oversight.

What we need to see is a slowdown in the number of people who are serious/critical and a slowdown in the number of people dying. Unfortunately, neither is happening.

I also truncated the data to keep this posting shorter. Earlier numbers are available in DoughtyOne’s tables.

[wastoute]

Offhand I can’t remember how to do it but I do remember there is a statistical method for determine if you are “doing enough tests”. Offhand I would say if the # of tests is 5 times the number of cases that’s probably “enough”.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

This is an excerpt posted on FR-—

“””Instead, Atlas wrote, states should craft policies that focus on protecting the elderly and those with chronic underlying conditions. Targeting that segment of the population, although it’s smaller, will have the greatest impact on minimizing hospitalizations (preventing the health care system from becoming overwhelmed) and reducing deaths”””

https://www.theblaze.com/news/stanford-doctor-end-coronavirus-lockdown?utm_source=theblaze-dailyPM&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily-Newsletter__PM%202020-04-24&utm_term=TheBlaze%20Daily%20PM%20-%20last%20270%20days

Many of us ‘numbers’ guys have been saying the same thing.

The ‘at risk’ people in the USA are the ones who have a very high mortality rate if they get infected.

Whereas, the healthy working age population is getting infected, but they are not experiencing bad outcomes.

Healthy people need to go back to work. Healthy children need to go back to school. Vulnerable people need to keep hunkering down.

It does not seem the solution to the problem is any more complex than that.

[Zhang Fei]

[Offhand I can’t remember how to do it but I do remember there is a statistical method for determine if you are “doing enough tests”. Offhand I would say if the # of tests is 5 times the number of cases that’s probably “enough”.]

---

It’s interesting you say that, because the rates vary greatly by state. With TX, it’s ~1 in 10. With NY, it’s ~4 in 10. By your standard, it would seem that TX meets the threshold, whereas NY does not.

[Empire_of_Liberty]

A good post, that elicits the following from me:

1) If the Media ISN’T annoying you, then something is wrong. ;)
2) Almost all of statistical analysis, or the reporting of it, is being done by those voted “best personality” or head cheer leader.
3) If the people killed on the road near you died because the road washed out, you would want it closed, and not forever, just until it was repaired and wasn’t unnecessarily dangerous.

[wastoute]

I would bet parts of Dallas and Austin have #s that are quite different from “The rest of Texas”. I grew up just West of “West Texas”. I’d bet that region has no virus at all. The oil patch guys could probably go back to work if there was someplace to store the oil.

[Godzilla]

bttt

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“””The oil patch guys could probably go back to work if there was someplace to store the oil.”””

---

There would be no reason to store the oil as it would be consumed by all workers going back to work.

[Empire_of_Liberty]

It does not seem the solution to the problem is any more complex than that.

---

Actually, full “lockdown” is the only simple response. That’s probably why it is being done. Those in charge, with the exception of the President, are mostly simpletons, and simple is all they can handle.

They could also probably handle a return to normalcy with the threat of the virus eliminated. I suspect that this is what they are angling for.

Your idea of “go back to work” with the threat of the virus still present, is far more complex than you realize. Let me give some examples:
1) Work, with health insurance? How does that work? Who would ensure?
2) Liability? Business would be sued by people contracting this.
3) How can the vulnerable actually be protected with the virus spreading freely among the “healthy” with which they must interact?

I think that, actually and sadly, some bright minds have thought about this a little, and what we are doing is the best they could come up with.