COVID-19 Update - 04/24/2020

My own workup | 04/24/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update

As of 04/23/2020 23:59 PDST

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you'll find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info
Section: 02     the Mortality Report
Section: 03     the United States Situation
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 05     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 06     Miscelanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranked with the Other States
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Link to Spreadsheet: Our Counties, States, Territories, & Other Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

The STATESCO Download is Expanding

Some of you have been downloading my data on U. S. Counties and States.
In the morning you will see an enhanced version that will include Counties,
States, the District of Columbia, our territories, and other Nations. There
will be three lists, and you'll be able to sort them on your own computer,
if you download the file. Section: 12

The County report will still be seen on the forum, but the little States
listing is being expanded and will appear in Section: 08 from here on.

New States vs States Reports.

Starting yesterday you can find a new series of sorts for our states
and the District of Columbia. There will be eight pages of them in
Section: 08.

How Does Our Nation Rank Againt the Others?

Starting today I have expanded the nation to nation comparison sheet. I
added a few more categories. These are also sorted so you can look at the
header line, see what is hightlighted red, and know the data was sorted by
that column. It works the same for the states in Section 08.

These charts will be located in Section 09

Section: 02

the Mortality Report

Making an effort to provide more mortality numbers these days.

Hopefully these upcoming numbers and charts will help with that.

Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this are of study.

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

Here's the chart to go along with those figures.

Looks pretty ominious there doesn't it.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Here's two charts to go with it.

I like how that second chart smooths things out. If you'll notice, with
the U. S. stripped out, the Global Picture now shows a true drop in
mortality numbers. Combined, the green line, still looks pretty flat,
perhaps a hint of a drop.

Something like that is what we want to see.

Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

This chart tracks he daily inrease over the previous day, in the middle
column there.

We're still in a growth period here.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Looks Like We Fell of the Recovery Truck Yesterday.

Declared Cases in the United States

We had a 37,637 one day growth spurt of new cases yesterday. I think we
can attribute that to the higher numbers of testing. Over the last few
days we've run over 750,000 tests.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here's more of our numbers...

Our mortality figures for yestday came in under 2,000 again. We're
essentially struggling to do better at this point, and it's not working
to the degree we wish it would.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.

Yesterday was a bad day for this topic.

I think it's an interesting indicator on it's own, but it's not really
sufficient. Yesterday I added four more graphs (since increased to seven)
that allow us to compare the U. S. and other nations. There are four (now
seven) metrics, and I think they will help to let us see where
we stand. Look for these in Section 09.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first chart for the Global Outside China Territories

Thursday was a big day last week, and it seemed to be high again this wee.
WE had the largest numbers since the last Thursday.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

There's just a lot going on out there. Some of these charts, there isn't
much to say. You can see the figures and at least know where we stand.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

That Global segment seems to be stuck in a rut. They had some days
outside the range, but since the first we've been pounding the area
from 49-52 thousand new cases per day.

They've moved higher and lower, but keep winding up about where
they aer right now. Enough already...

Here again, that last chart was a seven day averaged chart.
It helps a lot.

Well, that's a surprise. The visual numbers don't seem to look as
good as this 7 day averaging chart. Perhaps it's picked up
something worth recognizing there. If it's significant, the next
few days should confirm it. There is a definite drop off from
the curve there.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Germany is looking pretty good there. They've kept their deaths down pretty
well.

France seems to have taken a turn in the right direction.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?

Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

I hate to say it, because I want people back at work, but it seems to me
that Sweden has shown what going back to work might wind up doing. I
don't think it has to be that way, if folks are careful. From what I've
seen it doesn't seem like the Swedish people are careful. I may be off
base on that though. I only know what I've seen presented in the limited
media I observe.

Finland is still looking good.

Section: 05

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.06% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

That recovery percentage continues to climb. It's has grown 8.50% since 04/03,
when it bottomed out. That will impact our active cases. If it continues for
another two weeks, we'll be up around 40.00%. I like the thought of that.

90

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.

And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Friday's do seem to have a bias in favor of larger reports of new cases.

I'll keep tracking this for at least a few more weeks to give folks a chance to detect
patterns not only on Fridays, but other days as well.

If you're missing the listing of the states here, please check out
Section 08.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There were 212 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 212 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category has the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with 31 top spots on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the Disctrict of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

In this category I noted three nights ago we were 42nd on this list. The
night before last we were 43rd. Now last night, we're up to 41st. From
Trump's recent comments, I can tell it's a big deal to him to rise up in
this categore. I think it will happen shortly.

Section: 10

Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Courtesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US States DC⁵¹, Territories⁵⁺, and Counties²⁰⁰
                Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   earlyAlert

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

         
         
                                                             
                                                             
                           
                           
                                                             
                                                               
                                                               
                                                                 

[Factuality]

Thank you for this info. Very thorough. I may have missed it. Do you have data on the number of infected who are currently in hospitals and do you have data on if the number of those in hospitals are increasing or decreasing?

[Presbyterian Reporter]

On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.

These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.

If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.

Here are the numbers:

Apr 14 Tue 13473
Apr 15 Wed 13487
Apr 16 Thu 13369
Apr 17 Fri 13509
Apr 18 Sat 13551
Apr 19 Sun 13566
Apr 20 Mon 13951
Apr 21 Tue 14016
Apr 22 Wed 14016
Apr 23 Thu 14997

We had a plateauing of serious/critical cases at 13,500 from April 14 thru April 19. And then a 500 patient jump on Monday and Tuesday. And Wednesday we had a 1000 patient increase.

I looked at the worldometer website to see how they collect the serious/critical data: “Today, it represents for the most part the number of patients currently being treated in Intensive Care Unit (ICU), if and when this figure is reported.”

I am hoping the reason behind this recent 1,500 patient increase in serious/critical patients is due to the fact hospitals have many vacant ICU beds. If I were the hospital administrator it would be reasonable to move a covid patient from a regular hospital bed to ICU as they get more care and oversight.

What we need to see is a slowdown in the number of people who are serious/critical and a slowdown in the number of people dying. Unfortunately, neither is happening.

I also truncated the data to keep this posting shorter. Earlier numbers are available in DoughtyOne’s tables.

[DoughtyOne]

I do not have that information. Sorry...

[Presbyterian Reporter]

The USA reached a milestone yesterday with 50,000 deaths from Corona virus.

On April 18 a friend and I were analyzing the data and we both came to the conclusion that 75,000 deaths by June 1st seems to be the fate of the USA.

We also made estimates of the demographics of the 75,000 who have or might yet succumb to the virus.

1. Long term care facility patients 40%
2. Those people over 65 with comorbidities 30%
3. Those people under 65 with comorbidities 20%
4. Healthy people at all ages 10%

Much of the above demographic data is not available now, but as the states get better in their reporting, the numbers should be forthcoming.

[USS Alaska]

One, I was not set off yesterday by China's numbers.

I questioned whether they are even worth publishing because they are so obviously false and fictional.

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

Thank you.

Unfortunately, NY has reported 88% of their ventilated patients did not survive. So we will expect many more deaths from those in the "serious case" 14-15K ICU setting before it is clear we are trending in a good way.

[RaceBannon]

nice :)

[nuconvert]

Thanks once again for all of your hard work.

The numbers for Sweden have really increased.

[Godzilla]

bttt

[jrestrepo]

Nice data!

[CottonBall]

“1. Long term care facility patients 40%
2. Those people over 65 with comorbidities 30%
3. Those people under 65 with comorbidities 20%
4. Healthy people at all ages 10%

Very interesting. Now that’s the kind of information we need to know! So we can go ahead and end the destruction of the country, but emphasize that people with these higher risks need to be super careful.

[CottonBall]

I’ve looked at those blinking letters on my phone and my tablet. I still can’t see what it says. Is the first one a capital F and the last one an i?

[DoughtyOne]

It’s supposed to look like F R, and on my laptop it does.

Different screens handle spaces differently, and so you can wind up with a mess

I hadn’r considered that.

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks for mentioning that.

I've been busy lately developing new reports during the day
and zoomed right past the deaths passing the 50,000 mark.

I had noticed it, but didn't remember to mention it, on
the data thread.

I put up a note:

[CottonBall]

Oh, ok, very clever!!!