COVID-19 Update - 04/23/2020

My own workup | 04/22/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update

As of 04/22/2020 23:59 PDST

Good morning everyone.

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you'll find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info
Section: 02     the Mortality Report
Section: 03     the United States Situation
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 05     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 06     Miscelanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranked with the Other States
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Link to Spreadsheet: Our Counties, States, Territories, & Other Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information⁵: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

The STATESCO Download is Expanding

Some of you have been downloading my data on U. S. Counties and States.
In the morning you will see an enhanced version that will include Counties,
States, the District of Columbia, our territories, and other Nations. There
will be three lists, and you'll be able to sort them on your own computer,
if you download the file. Section: 12

The County report will still be seen on the forum, but the little States
listing is being expanded and will appear in Section: 08 from here on.

Section Numbers Added

I wanted folks to be able to tell what is in this report, and be able to
pinpoint better where things can be found, if I want to reference a
certain section of the Update.

Messege Center Added...

Once in a while I'm alerted to, or find an error myself. I don't like having
to waiat until the next Update goes out to correct things. This note feature
will facilitate me letting you know during the day, that an error has been
found and a correction has been made. It may expand to cover special
breaking news at times. We'll see...

This will be located at the bottom of Section: 01, and from now on you will
see a space holder there, mainly to prevent a big gap appearing there.

If you look just below a little ways, you'll see it there now.

New States vs States Reports.

Starting today you will find a new series of sorts for our states
and the District of Columbia. There will be eight pages of them in
Section: 08.

How Does Our Nation Rank Againt the Others?

I have been providing the percentage of world cases that are within the United
States. Others have had certain discomfort with that since a number of things
can impact this that are out of our control. I have agreed with them.

Another way of addressing where the U. S. stands in comparison to other nations,
would be to look at standings in certain categories. Starting yesterday I
added in four more charts that will list the top 31 nations in each category.

Those categories will be Cases per million, Deaths per million, Number of Tests,
& Tests per million.

These charts will be located in Section 09

The U. S. Zooms Past 800k...

And it's weel on it's way to 900k.

Section: 02

the Mortality Report

I am monitering the Mortality Rates Closer these days. I don't want to have
the numbers pull a u-turn on us, unless we know it's coming.

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

As you can tell, I'm trying to give the Global Outside China section some
options, so that we can see their data split out from the others. Notice
I have it separated from China at times, and also from the US too. I don't
want our numbers to wash up over the Global outside China numbers. We
need to see what's going on in other groups, so we can see if a trend
is headed our way.

Here's the chart to go along with those figures.

Looks pretty ominious there doesn't it.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Here's two charts to go with it.

I like how that second chart smooths things out. In the Global area outside
china, it actually looks like it has peaked and is drifting downward, when
we also break out the U. S. away from it.

Something like that is what we want to see.

Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

This chart tracks he daily inrease over the previous day, in the middle
column there.

We had around 2,300 more fatalities in the United States yesterday. Sorry
to see that.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Numbers, although high, went in the right direction yesterday.

Declared Cases in the United States

With 3,680 new cases yesterdaay, it seems we're stuck in a zone where day
after day after day, we just see relentless new cases. It will take time.
It will end.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here's more of our numbers...

Well, it's looking like our mortality rate is getting restless. Hoped it
would hold a downward trend, but no such luck.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.

I will refrain from making comments here. I just noticed the data was
not updated here. I will update that graph later this morning.

I think it's an interesting indicator on it's own, but it's not really
sufficient. Yesterday I added four more graphs that allow us to compare
the U. S. and other nations. There are four metrics, and I think they
will help to let us see where we stand. The four graphs are located down
in Section 8.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first chart for the Global Outside China Territories

Glad to see that percentage of cases resolved going.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

There's just a lot going on out there. Some of these charts, there isn't
much to say. You can see the figures and at least know where we stand.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without US numbers?

Things do look somewhat better, but it's not that impressive. Hopefully
tomorrow will look better. We're still just plodding along.

Before we move on to the charts, I would like ot point out that we have higher and lower, but keep winding up about here. Enough already...

Here again, that last chart was a seven day averaged chart.
It helps a lot.

Well, I guess it could be worse.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Germany is looking pretty good there. They've kept their deaths down pretty
well.

France seems to have taken a turn in the right direction.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?

Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

I hate to say it, because I want people back at work, but it seems to me
taht Sweden has shown what going back to work might wind up doing. I
don't think it has to be that way, if folks are careful. From what I've base on that though.

Finland is still looking good.

Section: 05

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.06% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

That recovery percentage continues to climb. It's has grown 8.50% since 04/03,
when it bottomed out. That will impact our active cases. If it continues for
another two weeks, we'll be up around 40.00%. I like the thought of that.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.

And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Friday's do seem to have a bias in favor of larger reports of new cases.

I'll keep tracking this for at least a few more weeks to give folks a chance to detect
patterns not only on Fridays, but other days as well.

If you're missing the listing of the states here, please check out
Section 08.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?

This is that new feature I mentioned. The U. S. will be highlighted red
here so we can see where we rank against other nations.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Yes, that's us at the bottom of this list, and I had to fudge a little to
document where we actually reside in this ranking. We're 42nd on a list of
thirty one nations. Oops...

Section: 10

Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Courtesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US States DC⁵¹, Territories⁵⁺, and Counties²⁰⁰
                Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   earlyAlert

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[Presbyterian Reporter]

On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.

These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.

If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.

Here are the numbers:

Apr 1 Wed 5005
Apr 2 Thu 5421
Apr 3 Fri 5787
Apr 4 Sat 8206
Apr 5 Sun 8702
Apr 6 Mon 8879
Apr 7 Tue 9169
Apr 8 Wed 9279
Apr 9 Thu 10,011
Apr 10 Fri 10916
Apr 11 Sat 11471
Apr 12 Sun 11766
Apr 13 Mon 12722
Apr 14 Tue 13473
Apr 15 Wed 13487
Apr 16 Thu 13369
Apr 17 Fri 13509
Apr 18 Sat 13551
Apr 19 Sun 13566
Apr 20 Mon 13951
Apr 21 Tue 14016
Apr 22 Wed 14016

We had a plateauing of serious/critical cases April 14 thru April 19. And then a 500 patient jump the past two days.

What we need to see is a slowdown in the number of people who are serious/critical and a slowdown in the number of people dying.

[wastoute]

“What happened to the models?” Well, it isn’t a “model” in a strict sense I don’t think but there is a “Theory of how epidemics work” that has been created over the decades. It starts with an “Index Case” (or Patient Zero in Fiction) and in accordance with the “Ro” the Index case infects the # of people indicated by the “Ro” and they go on to infect, etc. this goes on until there are enough people infected a “signal” can arise from the “noise” of randomness until a confident CFR begins to emerge. The # new Deaths (and all other parameters, new cases, recoveries) begin to “double” detectably and then the epidemic begins the Exponential Phase and then reaches the Peak Penetration and all the parameters begin to decline.

I don’t think any body believes a real epidemic starts with the migration into the pool of potential victims of ONE PATIENT. Odds are that at least multiple patients (especially in an age of global travel) “begin” epidemics. So there is no real Patient Zero. But what difference does it make? In a few days no matter if two or four or even a hundred “Patient Zeroes” exist what difference does it make? A few days? A week?

But what if 430,000 potentially infected people among whom are tens of thousands of infected people enter the pool of potential victims? I don’t think anyone has seriously ever contemplated such a thing. But THAT is what we KNOW happened. So once you know this and go back and look at how the numbers accelerated in the beginning, if you HAD a sensitive tool (which none of us had) that counted on the “lead in not mattering” it’s pretty easy to see how they got results that may have been unimaginable. Perhaps even leading them to believe they were dealing with something worse than it actually was.

[glock rocks]

As of last night, Utah had 34 deaths. Your listing shows 83. Um?

[Nifster]

I have made some comments in the past that may have sounded like I don’t appreciate all the time and effort you put into bringing us this information. For this I apologize

I do appreciate all of the data and the analysis you put into this. It is helpful. Your efforts and work are yeoman. Thank you

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

Well, it's looking like our mortality rate is getting restless. Hoped it would hold a downward trend, but no such luck.

The downward trend is on its way.....soon. Remember, we know there are many people still very, very critically ill in the ICUs on ventilators. They are not doing well. NY has acknowledged 88% of their ventilated Covid patients have succumbed to the illness. You still have 14K seriously ill patients in the USA today. The deaths are reflecting the outcome of our patients in hospitals during the last 2-3 weeks still fighting to survive the disease.

Love the addition of State comparisons charts per million! and testing numbers too!

Thank you.

[USS Alaska]

I like how that second chart smooths things out. In the Global area outside china, it actually looks like it has peaked and is drifting downward, when we also break out the U. S. away from it.

One, you shirley don't even half way believe that the chi-coms are any where close to the truth.

These charts that have chi-com input are as factual as the Unicorn mating with the guy on TV that is half a motorcycle and half a man.

If it slants, it's not even close to standing up... to scrutiny.

A lot of slants follow this sentence. //////////

[stylin19a]

thanks for the ping.

Encouraging the percent of new cases vs. EOD yesterday’s total cases is in the 3% range for 4 days in a row.

I understand you can only work with the numbers being reported.

FWIW

Note: CDC said a couple of days ago that the flu season was over the week of April 11.

If numbers are a little screwy upwards since then, it’s because all flu cases are now being diagnosed as COVID-19.

Also, the U.S. military was given a separate designation and is being reported like being a state. Worldometers said they adjusted U.S. numbers back to 03/18/2020.

Thanks again for all this.

[DoughtyOne]

People have different theories and people coalesce around
them. Some like one train of thought, and others like
various other trains of thought.

If you are in a leadership position, it carries a lot of
weight with it. You’re faced with doom, and you just don’t
know how big of a doom it will be.

In a case like this, I have come to accept that people are
doing the best they can. I may not agree with everything
Trump does for example, but I’m not going to pick him to
pieces over it.

If I were in there, I’d do things folks would disagree with.
It’s just how things work.

I agree with your take on it.

[wastoute]

I think Trump has done a masterful job. In fact, I don’t think anyone else on earth could. To grasp this event in all it’s dimensions and then manage them. No one else could have done it.

[DoughtyOne]

[CottonBall]

Thank you for this. I really liked to see the graph where the global mortality rate leveled off. Eventually we will get there as well.

[DoughtyOne]

I like how that second chart smooths things out. In the Global area
outside China. It actually looks like it has peaked and is drifting downward, when we also break out the U. S. away from it.

I don't know what set you off about this comment. It addressed
an area outside of China, that wasn't tainted by any Chinese data.

As for all the information I present, the vast
majority addresses the United States, and the Global
situation OUTSIDE China.

I run specialty reports on U. S. Counties, States, U. S.
territories, And the Country as a whole.

I run specialty reports on the Global Scene outside
China and focusing on other nations.

Where did you get the idea this report is tainted by an
over abundance of Chinese figures?

Chinese cases make up 03.065604d% of all cases declared
as of this time. At the present time China accounts
for only 0.06% of active cases.

Those figures do not affect any reports focusing on the
U. S., the Global Scene outside China, or any other
nations I do specialty reports on.

China has numbers. I do have a section that addresses
them in the proper context.

The global number of cases (the cont), includes China's
numbers. I'm not going to completely ignore China and
act as if it doesn't exist. I will continue to provide
its numbers, and people can use them to contemn them.

Right now China has a big flare up in one of its other
cities, not Wuhan. Still, they aren't reporting out
any new cases or deaths. I want folks to know that.
Reporting their numbers allows folks to figure that out.

[DoughtyOne]

I’m not grinding over anything you’ve posted.

Thanks for your comments. No problem.

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks. I’ll be changing the data sheets with our nation
against other nations soon. It will have the same format
as the format for the states right now.

I don’t want to post the full list of nations, so I may
cut it off at the top fifty in each category.

[DoughtyOne]

Seems like a real effort from all over to bump up the
COVID-19 numbers. “Hottest year on record” type stuff.

[DoughtyOne]

I think he has also. I can’t imagine anyone doing better.

I can only imagine the media fawning over Obama if he were
handling it.

[Nifster]

👍👍