There are 6700 confirmed cases in the Bay Area.
Using Stanford Scientific measure to estimate actual number of 50-80 times infected and using the lower denominator of 50
We find 6700 x 50= 335,000
There are 218 CCP-19 deaths
Result?
218 ÷ 335,000=0.06507463%
WTX are we doing?
Lots of people are saying it’s wrong to believe the Stanford 50X-80X findings, that the methodology and statistics were very faulty.
Stanford study is garbage
The Santa Clara study is flawed for several reasons.
1. The participants self-selected, and someone who has symptoms or has been in close contact with an infected individual is more likely to want a Covid test.
2. The tests have a false positive rate supposedly 2/371 or .5% - this data is from the manufacturer of the test
3. This sample was 4,000 people, but there are facts relating to 243,000 people in a city of 9 million which prove that Ioannidis (the study author) is wrong.
NYC has 14,427 Covid deaths already which is .16% of the population of 9,000,000. This is the lowest possible infection mortality rate assuming every single person in NYC is infected.
243,047 people have been tested and 132,467 tested positive,
Only people with symptoms are being tested in NYC and only 54% of those with symptoms are positive. The rate of infection for those without symptoms is obviously lower than the rate of infection in those with symptoms of the disease.
If 54% of the entire city is infected (implausibly high) then the infection fatality rate is .30% (.16%/.54)
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-data-map-04202020-1.pdf
The quoted death rate of .1% for seasonal flu is the number of deaths over the number of SYMPTOMATIC flu cases. Those without symptoms are not part of the denominator. It is estimated (see link below) that 75% of regular flu cases show no symptoms. This brings the infection fatality rate for regular flu from .1% to .025% if you count infected people instead of just symptomatic people. Covid19 is at least 10 times deadlier than the flu, you can distort the numbers however you want, you can believe whatever you want, but no one can make a plausible argument that Covid19 isn’t 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, no matter how hard they try.
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/how-many-people-already-have-covid-19/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/21/revealing-chinese-virus-excess-death-graphs-coronavirus/