Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Vendome

Stanford study is garbage
The Santa Clara study is flawed for several reasons.
1. The participants self-selected, and someone who has symptoms or has been in close contact with an infected individual is more likely to want a Covid test.
2. The tests have a false positive rate supposedly 2/371 or .5% - this data is from the manufacturer of the test
3. This sample was 4,000 people, but there are facts relating to 243,000 people in a city of 9 million which prove that Ioannidis (the study author) is wrong.

NYC has 14,427 Covid deaths already which is .16% of the population of 9,000,000. This is the lowest possible infection mortality rate assuming every single person in NYC is infected.
243,047 people have been tested and 132,467 tested positive,
Only people with symptoms are being tested in NYC and only 54% of those with symptoms are positive. The rate of infection for those without symptoms is obviously lower than the rate of infection in those with symptoms of the disease.
If 54% of the entire city is infected (implausibly high) then the infection fatality rate is .30% (.16%/.54)

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-data-map-04202020-1.pdf
The quoted death rate of .1% for seasonal flu is the number of deaths over the number of SYMPTOMATIC flu cases. Those without symptoms are not part of the denominator. It is estimated (see link below) that 75% of regular flu cases show no symptoms. This brings the infection fatality rate for regular flu from .1% to .025% if you count infected people instead of just symptomatic people. Covid19 is at least 10 times deadlier than the flu, you can distort the numbers however you want, you can believe whatever you want, but no one can make a plausible argument that Covid19 isn’t 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, no matter how hard they try.
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/how-many-people-already-have-covid-19/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/21/revealing-chinese-virus-excess-death-graphs-coronavirus/


27 posted on 04/22/2020 1:14:26 PM PDT by brookwood (Obama said you could keep your plan - Sanders says higher taxes will improve the weather)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies ]


To: brookwood

I’m not distorting the numbers however I want and thought I was being fair/generous using their lowest numbers and then lowering them again.

For instant, “Gruesome Newsome” said 25.5 million Californians would be infected by Easter and I think someone got their numbers playing pin the tail on the donkey, then handed them to him.

So, I can use whatever lower number there is out there and it won’t change two facts:
The known knowns
What we know about unknown knowns

None of this is total crap because we aren’t playing unknowables.

Even if we play with the numbers to make him look better and use just the knowns to acheive %’s

so, let’s cut his ridiculous numbers which were invented by a 3rd grader and call it at about 1/3 just to be overly fair.

Then assume 7,650,000 or 1/3 of his number and a death rate of 4.5% based on knowables in what we know are demonstrably provable from Santa Clara County and call the death rate 4.5%(Not even remotely true, unless you only want to use known number, which is a lie)

So, we arrive at 4.5% × 7650000 = 344250 and that number isn’t real, realistic, probably nor possible because we already have the known or provable cases which are about 1% of where we should be using everyone elses numbers or WTF ever.

Bottom line: Our “Reaction” to this is killing off a whole lot more of everything else.

And I don’t give a kcuF if there are problems with the Stanford study because all the worst case scenario “Studies” by “Experts” have been disastrously worse by magnitude, which everyone relied on to “Shut The Country Down” So We Wouldn’t Burden our Health Care System.

Well, we are now well past that everywhere and we Givernors monkeying around and playing games with everyone lives and livelihood for their own politic objectives instead of helping good and kind people who sacrificed their lives to save a few others on what have turned out to be wrong on every level.


28 posted on 04/22/2020 2:40:31 PM PDT by Vendome (I've Gotta Be Me https://youtu.be/wH-pk2vZG2M)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies ]

To: brookwood

Okay, read your links and anyone can pick a number or invent one and I think mine were reasonable.


29 posted on 04/22/2020 2:42:54 PM PDT by Vendome (I've Gotta Be Me https://youtu.be/wH-pk2vZG2M)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson