Posted on 04/22/2020 6:06:17 AM PDT by zeestephen
Forty-four states had more influenza deaths in 2018 than they have COVID deaths in 2020. The six outlier states: NY, NJ, MA, MI, LA, and CT.
(Excerpt) Read more at cdc.gov ...
Source for state COVID deaths:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Counting raindrops.
Flu deaths are estimated based on what is written on the death certificate.
This whole “armchair statistics” crap needs to end. If your county or state can reopen, then reopen.
And using an entire years worth of stats against four weeks of stats is a freshmen Stats 101 wouldn’t make.
Everyone please stop making your point using crappy processes.
About half of the COVID-19 deaths are just from NY and NJ. And it seems pretty safe to say that NY, at least, has inflated their numbers.
We shut down 50 states because 2 states had what amounts to a bad flu season. Unbelievable.
Two points, flu deaths are for the year, but occur during a fraction of the year that generally doesn’t include summer.
The other point by way of example. Average number of deaths scored as flue, in Maine, is about 300 per year. There is an additional 900 or so for chronic lower respiratory. The TOTAL projected COVID score, not the score for a month, but for the entire run, is 50.
The biggest hospitals are laying people off.
It is not half of all deaths are from NY and NJ it is OVER 50%. Last I saw it was approaching 55% with I think 30+% being in NYC alone.
Here in the SouthEast we have a hotspot. In tiny counties of 3k-4k people the nursing home have been devastated. I understand your point, but this is a dangerous virus for elderly especially. You may not see it in you area of the country, but come down here.
I suppose it's easy enough to re-hire people later on, but there is huge irony here.
The whole idea of "flattening the curve" was that we didn't want to overwhelm hospitals. Too many sick people. Not enough staff. Some staff gets sick, even bigger shortage of workers. The whole system could collapse.
And what happens?
All elective surgeries cancelled. People stay home and don't see their doctor. Hospitals have fewer patients than normal. Hospitals lay off staff. Business is slow, not enough money coming in, we have too many healthcare workers, so let's get rid of some.
Unbelievable.
I was looking at I think it was the CDC website the other day and it defines the flu season from October 1 to April 4, the way I read it
And there was something like 40 to 50,000,000 flu cases during that time
We keep hearing that the goal is to save as many lives as possible.
It’s obvious that stay at home is safer than travel. Just don’t stand up in the bathtub.
CDC website also has a section on novel virus pandemics.
1957 one took 116,000 Americans
1967 one took about 100,000 and targeted elderly
Number of deaths out of how many cases? For Covid, New York has had roughly 20,000 deaths out of 260,000 diagnosed cases. For flu New York had 4,700 deaths out of how many diagnosed cases?
“Counting raindrops.”
Or sweeping sand on the beach.
I agree.
That's why I am advocating that we count influenza deaths EXACTLY the same way we count COVID-19 deaths...
If a person with influenza dies, it should be counted as an influenza death - regardless of any other diseases that may be present - just like COVID-19.
Re: “And using an entire years worth of stats against four weeks of stats is a freshmen Stats 101 wouldn’t make.”
You forgot to proof read your sentence. A freshman mistake?
Anyway, you also made a basic medical mistake...
The influenza season is six months long.
90% of influenza deaths are usually booked in one three month period.
COVID-19 has already peaked in every state.
Your death numbers will continue to go up, but only because corrupt states grasping for more Medicare money, and corrupt bureaucrats grasping for credibility, will continue to “discover” victims they previously missed.
Bottom Line...
COVID-19 is no more dangerous than a severe flu season.
We have NEVER shut down the entire country for a severe flu season.
Those are tested and confirmed cases not the epidemiological estimate....
For instance:
In Santa Clara County there are currently 1946 confirmed cases and 88 deaths(well under the 50+ we suppose to have each day )
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx
Stanford University estimates 50,000-80,000 are actually infected.
“These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50 (to) 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases,” the authors wrote.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/17/santa-clara-covid-19-antibody-study-suggests-broad-asymptomatic-spread.html
I am going to use their lowest number of estimated infections.
That gives us 88 deaths ÷ 50,000=0.00176 x 100=0.176% death rate.
Someone smarter than me, please correct.
Uh yeah!!!
Someone is not very good at math and they could have projected that fairly easily
Here in San Jose, CA several of the hospitals have taken their tents, their bases, gloves, bats and balls put them in storage.
Guess they were needed after all.
We only have a :
98% capability of handling a surge.
78% of ventilators ready and waiting
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx
“We shut down 50 states because 2 states had what amounts to a bad flu season. Unbelievable.”
Stop talking out of your bunghole. Average yearly flu deaths are 2,220 in NYC, there are 14,427 dead in the last month from Covid19 in NYC
158 average all cause mortality in NYC per day
Date NYC Deaths
3-28 222 672
3-29 104 776
3-30 136 914
3-31 182 1096
4-1 278 1374
4-2 188 1562
4-3 305 1867
4-4 387 2254 244.94%
4-5 218 2472 137.97%
4-6 266 2738 168.35%
4-7 806 3544 510.13%
4-8 716 4260 453.16%
4-9 518 4778 327.85%
4-10 651 5429 412.03%
4-11 313 5742 198.10%
4-12 440 6182 278.48%
4-13 1167 7349 738.61%
4-14 556 7905 351.90%
4-15 2462 10367 1558.23%
4-16 1110 11477 702.53%
4-17 1235 12712 781.65%
4-18 528 13240 334.18%
4-19 443 13683 280.38%
4-20 744 14427 470.89%
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/New-York-City-Leading-Causes-of-Death/jb7j-dtam
Another rough estimate for number of deaths in NYC every year,
from Quora - 1 death every 9 minutes, 158 per day, 57,000 per year
https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-die-in-New-York-every-day
COVID-19 deaths are estimated based on what is written on the death certificate.
This whole “armchair statistics” crap needs to end. If your county or state can reopen, then reopen.
And using an entire years worth of stats against four weeks of stats is a freshmen Stats 101 wouldn’t make.
Everyone please stop making your point using crappy processes.
The appropriate correction has been made.
If Stanford is estimating in Santa Clara county we actually have 50-80 times confirmed cases of infections, can we make the same assumption for New York
using round numbers:
5000 Covid death ÷ 13,000,000(260,000 presumed x 50)=.038%
90% of influenza deaths are usually booked in one three month period.
Then why is Dr Fauxci saying we get to 62,000 deaths by August? /S
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