COVID-19 Update - 04/22/2020

My own workup | 04/22/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update

As of 04/20/2020 23:59 PDST

Good morning everyone.

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you'll find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info
Section: 02     the Mortality Report
Section: 03     the United States Situation
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 05     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 06     Miscelanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, States & Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations in Several Categories
Section: 09     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 10     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 11     Link to Spreadsheet: U. S. States, D., of C, Territories, and Counties
Section: 12     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Section Numbers Added

I wanted folks to be able to tell what is in this report, and be able to
pinpoint better where things can be found, if I want to reference a
certain section of the Update.

Note Capability Added...

Once in a while I'm alerted to, or find an error myself. I don't like having
to wait until the next Update goes out to correct things. This note feature
will facilitate me letting you know during the day, that an error has been
found and a correction has been made. It may expand to cover special
breaking news at times. We'll see...

This will be located at the bottom of Section: 01, and from now on you will
see a space holder there, mainly to prevent a big gap appearing there.

If you look just below a little ways, you'll see it there now.

Another New Feature...

I have been providing the percentage of world cases that are within the United
States. Others have had certain discomfort with that since a number of things
can impact this that are out of our control. I have agreed with them.

Another way of addressing where the U. S. stands in comparison to other nations,
would be to look at standings in certain categories. Starting yesterday I
added in four more charts that will list the top 31 nations in each category.

Those categories will be Cases per million, Deaths per million, Number of Tests,
& Tests per million.

These charts will be located in Section 08

I plan on adding this same feature to compare our states in various
categories.

Section: 02

the Mortality Report

I am monitering the Mortality Rates Closer these days. I don't want to have
the numbers pull a u-turn on us, unless we know it's coming.

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

As you can tell, I'm trying to give the Global Outside China section some
options, so that we can see their data split out from the others. Notice
I have it separated from China at times, and also from the US too. I don't
want our numbers to wash up over the Global outside China numbers. We
need to see what's going on in other groups, so we can see if a trend
is headed our way.

Here's the chart to go along with those figures.

Well, break it out any way we like, all entities are seeing higher numbers.
I was hopeful the other day we were seeing some real headway. Well...
not so much...

Be both seem to be leveling out, but together, there doesn't seem to be
any leveling.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Here's two charts to go with it.

That first one gets pretty busy on the right side, so I ran a seven day
averaging version. Talk about a flattenig...

In that second chart there, you can see how seven day averaging quiets things
down. I'll continue to provide that.

Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

This chart tracks he daily inrease over the previous day, in the middle
column there.

The fatalities went sub 2,000 the day before yesterday. We seemed to
falling a little from about five to six days ago. Now it's back up
to the 2,800 neighborhood yesterday.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Numbers, although high, went in the right direction yesterday.

Declared Cases in the United States

We've fallen back bellow 30,000 new cases per day, and are residing in
the 25,000 - 28,500 neighborhood now. Would love to see that go down
even further, but then everyone would.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here's more of our numbers...

Well, it's looking like our mortality rate is getting restless. Hoped it
wold hold a downward trend, but no such luck.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.

As you can see, we just keep plodding along in a slightly higher percentage
of the global cases. Others have mnentioned there are a number of factors
that could explain this, or contribute to it.

I think it's an interesting indicator on it's own, but it's not really
sufficient. Yesterday I added four more graphs that allow us to compare
the U. S. and other nations. There are four metrics, and I think they
will help to let us see where we stand. The four graphs are located down
in Section 8.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first chart for the Global Outside China Territories

Glad to see that percentage of cases resolved going.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

There's just a lot going on out there. Some of these charts, there isn't
much to say. You can see the figures and at least know where we stand.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without US numbers?

Things do look somewhat better, but it's not that impressive. Hopefully
tomorrow will look better. We're still just plodding along.

Here again, that last chart was a seven day averaged chart.
It helps a lot.

Tigures there seem overall flat.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Germany is looking pretty good there. They've kept their deaths down pretty
well.

France seems to have taken a turn in the right direction.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?

Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Each day sees Sweden break farther away from the pack. Not liking the direction
it seems to be going.

Whatever Finland is doing, keep doing it... Norway looks as if it has taken
a good turn there.

Section: 05

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.06% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

That recovery percentage continues to climb. It's has grown 8.50% since 04/03,
when it bottomed out. That will impact our active cases. If it continues for
another two weeks, we'll be up around 40.00%. I like the thought of that.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.

And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Friday's do seem to have a bias in favor of larger reports of new cases.

I'll keep tracking this for at least a few more weeks to give folks a chance to detect
patterns not only on Fridays, but other days as well.

Section: 07

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Alphabetical & by Cases Number
Idea of adding more informaton here, courtesy of Presbyterian Reporter

This little report now provides the number of cases and the deaths. I was going
to add more, but the data set I needed to pull this from, didn't provide that
information.. It's an alphabetical and cases by declining number file.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file, so you can do your own
sorting, beyond the two sorts I have provided here. Both the states and the counties
come on one Excell spreadsheet. See Section 11.

Here is the Standing of 200 Counties in the U. S.

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report just list the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file, so you can do your own
sorting, beyond the two sorts I have provided here. The States and Counties are
included on the same Excel spreadsheet. Again, reference Section 11.

Section: 08

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?

This is that new feature I mentioned. The U. S. will be highlighted red
here so we can see where we rank against other nations.

We are currently 16th in Cases were million... Could be worse. If there is
one metric you'd like to fall behind on, the would probably be number two.

Well, we're 14th when it comes to fatalities per million. Would love to
drop in this ranking.

We have run an impressing number of tests, but when you look at the tests
per million, we drop significantly.

Yes, that's us at the bottom of this list, and I had to fudge a little to
document where we actually reside in this ranking. We're 42nd on a list of
thirty one nations. Oops...

Section: 09

Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Courtesy of: foldspace

Section: 10

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 11

Other Features:

LINK   US States DC⁵¹, Territories⁵⁺, and Counties²⁰⁰
                Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases

Section: 12

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   earlyAlert

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[Erik Latranyi]

With states and localities now non-Wuhan Virus deaths into the totals, it is time to stop analyzing.

When the data becomes tainted, it needs to be ignored and rejected.

[Rennes Templar]

Exactly. All these charts are meaningless if the source is not accurate. There are now reports the test kits were tainted with the virus.

I think the real fatality numbers in the US are about half of reported.

It’s all about putting the hurt on the economy, thus Trump.

[Kozak]

“The fatalities went sub 2,000 the day before yesterday. We seemed to
falling a little from about five to six days ago. Now it’s back up
to the 2,800 neighborhood yesterday.”

Deaths tend to get underreported on the weekends, with catchup on Monday and Tuesday. That seems to be a fairly consistent pattern.
Unfortunately the deaths still seem to be trending up. And the deaths are more distributed around the country as NY city seems over their peak.

I get that the economy needs to get going again, but I expect it’s going to be a significant cost, especially if people don’t act responsibly in terms of distancing and wearing masks.

[Kozak]

They are not “non Wuhan fatalities”.
They are related to the virus. It’s EXACTLY the method used every year to tabulate deaths by “Influenza like illness”.

If we don’t do it for Covid, we should go back and remove the vast majority of “deaths from flu” in the past.

[DoughtyOne]

There is a Global section that addresses only the cases
outside China. At times it address data without the U. S.
as well. Then there is the U. S. section that only
addressed the figures inside the United States.

China is in there for reference, but at this time the
active numbers of Chinese case now equals 0.06% of the
total numbers.

[DoughtyOne]

Yeah, that is true. Sunday’s figures aren’t very reliable for comparison.

There’s no choice really. We either open up or become a third world nation.

Some of these businesses are not coming back. The longer
we wait, the more the damage.

[Rennes Templar]

Can’t see the graph, too big.

[DoughtyOne]

[Presbyterian Reporter]

I\I have been studying the high death rate among the elderly-—particularly those in nursing homes.

Below is the website from the Florida Department of Health that provides data on the number of cases and deaths by age group.

Yesterday, Governor Ron DeSantis in his daily press conference said that 80% to 85% of the deaths were people above the age of 65.

DeSantis is correct.

DATA ON NUMBER OF CASES:
Florida currently has 27,127 COVID cases. Those people under age 65 account for 20,337 of the cases or 75%. Whereas, those above age 65 account for 6790 of the cases or 25%.

DATA ON NUMBER OF DEATHS:
Florida currently has 867 deaths. Those people under age 65 account for 149 of the deaths or 17.2%. Whereas, those above age 65 account for 718 of the deaths or 82.8%.

This data came from the following site:

https://floridadisaster.org/globalassets/covid19/dailies/covid-19-data-—daily-report-2020-04-21-1637.pdf

Coronavirus: characteristics of 27,127 Florida resident cases Data verified as of Apr 21, 2020 at 5 PM

The chart is located on Page 3

[billyboy15]

While I applaud the work going into these reports the only issue I have (and it may just be me so no offense at all intended to anyone) is that the report depends on the veracity of the Countries, States, Counties, cities reporting.

I personally have NO faith in anything coming out of China or Iran or even Russia. I also question these numbers (somewhat) because many deaths are being attributed to the China Virus where in fact it may not be the case.Hospitals are being told to go back in their records and reevaluate the cause of death in all patients who MAY have had even the remotest chance of harboring this virus and this goes for patients who have NEVER been tested.

Nonetheless the figures are of use to show trends which is actually the most important thing since where we are headed is more important than where we have been.

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks for that.

Makes me wonder exactly what is going on with younger
people who don’t make it.

I know they can have medical problems that make them
vulnerable.

People can’t resist going on line and declaring their
100% healthy family member had a very tough go of it
or died. I’m curious about what the real situation
was.

Some studies are now showing there are many more people
showing positive for having had this, but they never
even knew they had it, and didn’t show any symptoms at
all.

Why are some people having such a tough go of it, and
others don’t even know they’ve had it?

[DoughtyOne]

No, the process is not perfect. There are problems as you
have stated. Now, do we simply ignore the data coming out
and fly blind, or do we capture the data as we always do
and review it as time goes by.

If we take your point literally, we would have zero
information on any communicable diseases. I don’t think you
would want to support that.

This is how it’a always done. It’s never perfect, but
years from now they’ll reference today’s numbers just as
we reference the numbers form past outbreaks of disease.

It is what it is. No offense taken.

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

Hello. I am going to take your county numbers (thanK you) and look at comparative key counties in NJ that I have been watching. South Jersey has decreasing cases from North Jersey as you get further away from New York epicenter. I want to see cases per 1000 population.

Great New Jersey news: We had the first national cases in transfusing convalescent plasma. One donor. Two recipients. Successful results for two patients recovering in two South Jersey hospitals. both patients had been critically ill on ventilators. Wonderful!!!

News: Burlington County NJ (in the southern section of NJ) deaths have been reported to occur 58% of the time related to long term care facilities.

As of last Friday, the NYT reported state-wide NJ Covid deaths were related to long term care in the 40% range.

At this time, I would be very wary of sending recovering patients to any long term care facility in New Jersey.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“””Why are some people having such a tough go of it, and
others don’t even know they’ve had it?”””

---

From the get-go we were all warned that those with serious underlying health issues at all ages were vulnerable to COVID.

When this crisis is over, we may find that comorbidity was the major factor causing a person to have a tough time or die from COVID.

And we may also find that a perfectly healthy 35 year old person died of COVID as well as an 85 year old person with major health issues survived COVID. But those will be the very, very few exceptions.

When we start seeing the comorbidity data, then all of us can adapt our lifestyle to either avoid getting infected or to not worry about being infected given our own health situation.

Thus far, I am not seeing any evidence that should prevent healthy people with no major underlying health conditions from going back to work and going back to school.

On the other hand, those who are elderly and those at all ages with serious underlying health conditions had better continue sheltering in place.

[Wonder Warthog]

You just keep making it better....many thanks!

[RaceBannon]

[Nifster]

The only problem with all your number crunching is assumes facts not in evidence

We don’t know how many cases actually exist. All we know are the numbers of people who are sick enough to qualify for a test