Analysis: Is Sweden right in its lax handling of COVID-19?

EuroNews ^ | 04/21/2020 | By Darren McCaffrey

[SeekAndFind]

It’s been labelled risky, reckless, an outlier. Sweden has been at the centre of much debate over the past few weeks. Why has it not ruthlessly pursued lockdown like everyone else? Is it doing the right thing?

Well, the Swedes themselves seem to think so, with overwhelming support for their government’s decisions and the advice of scientists.

This is not a country divided. And we should also be clear that this is not a country that has done nothing. It has banned large gatherings, closed high schools and universities and told elderly people to self-isolate.

But restaurants, bars, primary schools and most businesses are still open. The country has forged its odd path. And in absolute terms, unfortunately, more people so far have died compared to its Nordic neighbours.

At the time of writing, Sweden has 14,777 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 1,580 people have died. If we compare that to Norway, which has half the population, it has seen 7,156 cases – or approximately half of that of Sweden – and the much-lower figure of 181 deaths. Finland, which has a population similar to Norway's, has seen 4,014 COVID-19 cases and 98 fatalities.

Comparably, the virus has been nearly ten times more deadly in Sweden, even though it has only twice the population. Yet, hospitals have not been overwhelmed; figures available from last week show capacity is running at 80 per cent and worst-case estimates around infection and death rates have simply not transpired.

That is not to say there isn’t anger out there, particularly at a perceived lack of shielding of older people. More than a third of fatalities have been people living in care homes.

The impact of the coronavirus cannot simply be measured by its effect on health. Unsurprisingly, Sweden has been less damaged economically. Personal spending in Denmark is down 66 per cent and in Finland it stands at 70 per cent, compared to only 30 per cent in Sweden. Unemployment claims in Norway are rising four times as fast as those in Sweden. The latter’s overall economy is not expected to slump to nearly the same degree as much of Europe.

And then there is the issue of so-called herd immunity. Studies at the weekend suggested between 25-40 per cent of Stockholm may have actually already had the virus. It could be up to 60 per cent by late May. In France, it is currently believed to stand at around six per cent.

Does this mean Sweden will be better able to stem, stop or see less of an impact from the second or third waves when they inevitably come? We honestly do not know. It isn’t an exact science at the moment, we can't predict the future. And it will be a long time before we can fully assess whether or not Sweden has got it right.

[j.havenfarm]

“Lax” means insufficiently careful. That conclusion is not supported by the information presented in the article, which expressly states that the jury is out on whether Sweden’s calculated experiment will work or not.Either a biased headline writer or just real sloppy writing.

[FoxInSocks]

There is a whole lot more to weigh in such an analysis of this topic. Deaths = n is not it. For example, suicides, assaults, mental health and substance abuse, neglected “routine” or scheduled medical procedures, long-lasting implications of lost commerce and unemployment, lost schooling for children, etc.

[jarwulf]

I think there can be a nice middle ground between destroying our economy or going hogwild and taking absolutely no precautions whatsoever. Am I alone in this?

[ifinnegan]

Deaths per million is a good barometer.

Sweden is fairly high but less than Netherlands, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

This Economist chart was presented in another post yesterday. Note that 1) data shown are per-capita and 2) the Y-axis ranges are all different.

Sweden appears to be on-par with Netherlands, Germany and Denmark, but about twice the per-capita cases as Finland (as the article points out).

Personal spending in Denmark is down 66%, 70% in Finland, and 30% in Sweden. Unemployment claims in Norway are rising four times as fast as those in Sweden. The latter’s overall economy is not expected to slump to nearly the same degree as much of Europe.

So, roughly speaking, it appears you can accept twice the per-capita COVID cases and suffer half the per-capita economic calamity. Is that a good trade-off? Probably not to families that lost mormor och morfar (grandma and grandpa).

[OttawaFreeper]

One should also consider is that native Swedish are probably that good deal more cohesive and watching out for others in their general patterns of behaviour and social mores compared to many North Americans.

[oil_dude]

Just show us the stats, we can figure it out from there.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: “Lax” means insufficiently careful.

So, you mean self-regulating instead of government imposed social distancing is not lax?

Swedish Citizens are instructed to use their judgment, and to take individual responsibility within a framework that rested on mutual trust, rather than top-down control.

If the word: LAX means not sufficiently strict or severe or relaxed, I think the word describes the Swedish approach.

[SeekAndFind]

RE:Just show us the stats, we can figure it out from there.

See the graphs in Post #6 above

[Caipirabob]

Did their small businesses all go bankrupt? If not, there’s certainly a lesson to be learned here.

[KingofZion]

100% correct. MSM conveniently ignores all of the deaths that have occurred due to the shutdown, because it is easier to update the Wuhan death count than to project the # who will die as a result of unemployment, depression, missed surgeries, etc.

As for the larger article, Sweden is but one of several countries that have avoided the full shutdown and still have not overwhelmed their medical system. What really upsets me is the failure of most states to begin re-opening the economy now instead of waiting another month. Can Sweden, Switzerland, Austria all be wrong?

[LastDayz]

Sweden is currently at 15,322 confirmed cases and 1,765 deaths.

[Tuketu]

1.) The DEAD NEVER COMPLAIN!

2.) Someone posted a death rate of 86 per million or similar to that on FR.

[Scrambler Bob]

Well, how is the Swedish Bikini Team doing?

Should be a good indicator.

[Scrambler Bob]

“Lax” means insufficiently careful.
= = =

But LAX means a Hellhole of an airport.

[SeekAndFind]

According to this site:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Sweden’s death per million from Covid-19 is 155.16, higher than ours at 129.28

But it is lower than Switzerland, Netherlands, UK, France, Italy, Spain and Belgium

[Track9]

Does having the antibodies make a person immune? Are they basically nature’s vaccine?

[impimp]

Sweden is, by design, front-end loading their deaths.