USC-LA County Study: Early Results of Antibody Testing Suggest Number of COVID-19 Infections Far Exceeds Number of Confirmed Cases in Los Angeles County

CNBC ^ | 04/20/2020 | Hannah Miller, Noah Higgins-Dunn

[Fury]

The Covid-19 outbreak in Los Angeles County is far more widespread than previously thought, up to 55 times bigger than the number of confirmed cases, according to new research from the University of Southern California and the L.A. Department of Public Health.

[Fury]

Also see:

Press release “USC-LA County Study: Early Results of Antibody Testing Suggest Number of COVID-19 Infections Far Exceeds Number of Confirmed Cases in Los Angeles County
“ - see http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

“LAC DPH Health Advisory: SARS-CoV-2 Serology”
- see http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/eprp/lahan/alerts/LAHANCOVID041620.pdf

From the Press Release: "Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 (emphasis added) adults in the county who have had the infection"

[FatherofFive]

This is really great news if true. It means this is a far less dangerous and deadly strain. (But it is really nasty for those with certain underlying conditions)

[FatherofFive]

This is really great news if true. It means this is a far less dangerous and deadly strain. (But it is really nasty for those with certain underlying conditions)

[walkingdead]

Get the kids back to school, get us back to work, grandparents, we will visit you in a bit.

Stop the lockdown, let us get to herd immunity

[null and void]

4.1%? Herd (let's stop using a word associated with sheep and cows for a group of humans, shall we?) POPULATION immunity level is said to be 60%.

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[blam]

My son lives there and has been declared DOD essential....goes to work every day.(A physicist)

[thesharkboy]

From the report:

That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April.

That estimate (28-55 times the confirmed cases) is in line with the Stanford study released over the weekend, which estimated 50-85 times.

[thesharkboy]

By the way, the lowest estimate (28X) results in an IFR (infection fatality rate) of 0.27%, or roughly 3 times that of the seasonal flu.

[Truthoverpower]

I mean that’s the thing about this Chinese wuhan coronavirus

It’s so contagious and hearty

Now the funny thing is is that it appears to be so mild in so many people !

how can you have this thing —. meaning it’s got some significant population in your blood —

and not even know you have it?????

And then with others - somehow they get deathly ill ! It steals the hemoglobins iron away !!! and shut down the oxygen uptake of their lungs

Scary scary scary !

Now here’s a question for everybody out there reading this - how many people do you directly know

and we can count relatives or friends of friends

that Have actually gotten this and gotten a serious thing with it or died??

Im at one death and one serious bout of it. ( and none I directly even know )

[EBH]

go back and re-read the article...they are in the early stages...

they are at the beginning...not the end.

If this were the end ...it would be great news

[cherry]

kids are not going to go back to school....the die is cast in that regard...

what kills me is that thru this horrible devastating some govt workers are making out like bandits.....

[cherry]

I know one person, who stayed at home...I know of no one in my sphere that has had it or has it...

[Jane Long]

I “heard” that the 60% number was the population immunity number, on Tucker’s (??) show, the other night.

[momincombatboots]

Gen 1 antibody testing. It is.. um complicated. Waiting for correlation data. Nightmares of gen 1 antibody testing for hiv.. i remember that.

[Fury]

It will be interesting to see what the antibody testing in New York State reveals. They should have the results back at the end of the week.

[Basket_of_Deplorables]

“how can you have this thing —. meaning it’s got some significant population in your blood —

and not even know you have it?????”

Most people don’t get the flu, either, but if you tested them for antibodies, you’d probably find lots more had it without issue or symptoms.

Shutting down the country was the biggest mistake this country has made in a looooong time. There is no excuse not to open it right now. All of it.

Unless you would take certain action for the flu season, we have no business doing it now. Including walking around with a mask on. Or closing barbershops, or beaches.

This is all stupid af.

[brookwood]

Countering the “flubros” gets easier every day!

here is a link to the study.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
The participants were self selected, so people who had symptoms already or had contact with someone who was infected might be more likely to want to be tested, increasing the infection rate in the sample.
Also, the infection rate of normal flu, determined by blood tests, is probably 4 times greater than the number of symptomatic cases.
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
The seasonal flu death rate last year was about .1%, calculated by considering symptomatic cases.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
If you consider all cases as determined by blood tests, as the Stanford study does, the infection mortality rate goes down to .025%, so Covid19 is 19 times as deadly (in study 69/28,000 presumed infected = .24%)
Also the mortality rate in NYC is 13,000/9,000,000 people so if all are infected the mortality rate is at least .15%. that’s a pretty big sample, compared to 4,000 people self-selected using Facebook

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

another article critical of the Stanford Study
https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-review-of-covid-19-antibody-seroprevalence-in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25
King County study -
https://publichealthinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/SCAN-Technical-Report-v1-17-APR-2020.pdf
symptoms 1.49% UB 2.49%
no symptoms UB .49%
so if asymptomatic are 1/5 as likely to have CV, in NYC there are 200k with symptoms and 55% are positive, then for the other 9mm in NYC there is a 10% positive rate then there are 880000+100000=980000 cases and 13,000 deaths already for infection mortality rate of 1.3%

[brookwood]

How many people do you know who were killed in a car accident in the last 3 weeks? None ?!?!? OMG no one is getting killed, must be perfectly safe.
ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE

[LilFarmer]

Am I missing something? This means approximately 96% of the population do not have antibodies.

[null and void]

Yup.