COVID-19 Update - 04/20/2020

My own workup | 04/20/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

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COVID-19 Update

As of 04/19/2020 23:59 PDST

Good morning everyone.

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Links to Data Sources Used to Create the COVID-19 Update: Located near the bottom of this post.

Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information²: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Hitch in the Get-along...

Hi folks. Ran into a glitch on the forum this morning. Couldn't get the
system to process my COVID-19 Update. I'm providing an alternativie post
to keep this available to you. Hopefully later in the day, I'll drop it in on
the forum as well. Please excuse the fall back position here.

A word of explanation. I'm not hawking my private site. This is intended for
FReepers and to be posted on the forum. As soon as possible this will be
presented there. I will link it from yesterday's COVID-19 Update 04/19/2020
thread, and then those of you on the ping list are getting direct access.

the New Format

It was taking me too long to process the data before posting in morning. It was
also a problem keeping so many irons in the fire related to the information. I
was having to enter 47 bits on information in just the large number fields, and
a fair amount of it was repetitive. This conversion allowed me to update 47
fields with just 17 entries. I've automated a major portion of "the numbers"
collection spreadsheet. This new format cut off about forty-five minutes
to an hour of time.

I'm shooting for one month's data on each of 11 topics, with from three to six
fields each. One other feature that you won't notice, is that if I make a
mistake, I'm now able to replace one graphic data set, and the information
will be corrected mid-day.

Hope you like the new format.

Now It's Six Nations...

That's how many have passed the paltry numbers China declared to the world.
They are The United States, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom,
and Turkey.

the Mortality Report

I am monitering the Mortality Rates Closer these days. I don't want to have
the numbers pull a u-turn on us, unless we know it's coming..

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

As you can tell, I'm trying to give the Global Outside China section some

option, so that we can see their data split out from the others. Notice
I have it separated from China at times, and also from the US too. I don't
want our numbers to wash up over the Global outside China numbers. We
need to see what's going on in other groups, so we can see if a trend
is headed our way.

Here's the chart to go along with those figures.

Looks like we're not doing too bad. Seems entities had a better day than
we have had recently.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Here's the chart to go with it

I'm going to have to say that area on the right looks too much like nosie
te get too much out of it. Those New York numbers a few days ago really
created a mess with this graph.

Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

This chart tracks the daily inrease over the previous day, in the middle
column there.

That came out nice and clean.

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Numbers, although high, went in the right direction yesterday.

Declared Cases in the United States

Yesterday saw our smallest increase in declared cases in six days. Would
love to get a second helping of that.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Heck, I'm tired just reading that list of stuff coming up!

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.

Growth in these areas rebounded yesterday. It's not quite as rosy as it
was the day before. That was a strange day though, to be sure.

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the Cases Informaiton for the Global Outside China Territories

Glad to see that percentage of cases resolve still growing.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Crical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

There's just a lot going on out there. Some of these charts, there isn't
much to say. You can see the figures and at least know where we stand.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without US numbers?

Take special note of the dip in the Global nubmers here. Nice!

Numbers not looking too good there. It also looks as if we've kindof
trended across a gradual peak there, and it's going down.

Okay, too much wishful thinking...

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Germany is looking pretty good there. They've kept their deaths down pretty
well.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?

Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

The Swedish issue has certainly gotten people talking. Was on a conference<
call with family yesterday, and they were talking abou it. I mentioned some
of my numbers... buzz kill. LOL Sometimes I think people would rather talk
and not hear hear factual numbers.

Whatever Finland is doing, keep doing it...

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China numbers make up 00.06% of today's cases globally

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

That recovery percentage continues to climb. It's has grown 7.40% in the last two
weeks. That will impact our active cases. If it continues for another two weeks,
we'll be up around 40.00%. I like the thought of that.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.

And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Friday's do seem to have a bias in favor of larger reports of new cases.

I'll keep tracking this for at least a few more weeks to give folks a chance to detect
patterns not only on Fridays, but other days as well.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Alphabetical & by Case Number
Idea of adding more informaton here, courtesy of Presbyterian Reporter

This little report now provides the number of cases and the deaths. I was going
to add more, but the data set I needed to pull this from, didn't provide that
information.. It's an alphabetical and cases by declining number file.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file, so you can do your own
sorting, beyond the two sorts I have provided here. Both the states and the counties
come on one Excell spreadsheet.

Here is the Standing of 200 Counties in the U. S.

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report just list the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file, so you can do your own
sorting, beyond the two sorts I have provided here. The States and Counties are
included on the same Excel spreadsheet.

Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Courtesy of: foldspace

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Other Features:

LINK   US States DC⁵¹, Territories⁵⁺, and Counties²⁰⁰
                Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   earlyAlert

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[lonestar67]

I would also recommend the Real Clear Politics website for COVID data:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

It does some nice per/ million adjustments and is also willing to compare seasonal flu deaths from 2017

[wastoute]

Your curve “Mortality 03/07 Present would seem to indicate China is lying it’s ass off.

[Hugh the Scot]

Any idea why they’d use 2017 flu numbers?

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks for the mention.

I checked it out and will go back to review it more later.

[wastoute]

Sweden is still worth the interest because of what we hear about their policy but if you look at the “raw data” IIRC their # New Deaths Daily was 29 yesterday, IIRC. IOW they aren’t even really into the “exponential phase” of an epidemic. And the data would indicate that. The question will be IMHO “Can they avoid even going into an exponential phase?” If the folks in Sweden are “doing what it takes” without government insistence it could be very interesting indeed. Seems to me failure to ever generate an exponential phase would indicate they ARE doing what it takes.

[DoughtyOne]

The additional deaths are disturbing, but I think we have to
get beyond that type of focus. Here’s why.

Each year we loose tens of thousands of people to the flu.
Do we isolate, and keep social distancing each year? Do
we shut down the economy for three months?

You see, death is taken in stride with the flu each year.

So if we’re going to do all this now, because life is so
important, shouldn’t that beg the question why we don’t
do all this for the flu each year?

I don’t think this isolation and social distancing has been
the greatest idea. If it is, then we should be doing it for
the flu each year, since saving lives trumps everything
else.

In nature there is such a thing as culling the herd. The
weakest are taken by animals of prey. Is there something
like that playing out in humankind as well?

I know that if it’s my loved one or friend, I sure don’t
want to contemplate that rationality.

Still, if we’re not going to do this for the flu, then we
probably shouldn’t be doing it now. People are being put
under a massive amount of stress right now. Should this
become a yearly event, or should we grow a pair and
move on?

[buckalfa]

Appreciate the tables that support the charts.

[lonestar67]

2017 was one of the worst and most deadly flu epidemics in recent US history.

It is a good benchmark for how bad this might be.

[Hugh the Scot]

I understand that it was... I don’t understand what makes it a “good benchmark”.

The 2009 Flu season included the pandemic H1N1 swine flu. I’m questioning what, except bigger numbers, recommends 2017 over 2009; or 2015 for that matter?

[Oldeconomybuyer]

I’m still looking for data on the correlation between Covid cases/deaths/hospitalizations and either illegal alien population and/or sanctuary status. NYC for example has over 1.2 million illegals.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Glad to see you are up and running.

Just for grins I looked at the CDC website today.

This caught my eye—
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-in-us.html

On April 19, 2020 the CDC is reporting there are 551,775 cases of COVID.

Meanwhile, on April 19, 2020 Worldometer reported 764,636 cases of COVID.

Is the CDC really that incompetent that they cannot keep up with the numbers?

I am not sure where Worldometer gets their numbers. but they seem to be accurate.

[RaceBannon]

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2020/04/china-releases-video-in-the-middle-east-blaming-us-for-coronavirus/

[RaceBannon]

great work

[DoughtyOne]

Well, perhaps things are improving a little.

Everything used to be Israel’s fault.

I’m sure Israel was pleased to relinquish that position.

China running this through the Middle East brought that to
mind.

[DoughtyOne]

Thank you...

[DoughtyOne]

Part of the reason why I documented the reports China was
sending out, was so that we could rip it to shreds when
the other numbers came in, and it would be glaringly out of
step with everyone else’s numbers.

[DoughtyOne]

Thank you for your thoughts there. I notice I already
replied, but I didn’t want you to think I was bothered
by what you wrote. Take care.

[DoughtyOne]

d":^)