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Why 20pc unemployment in America is not all bad news
The Telegraph ^ | 04-16-2020 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Posted on 04/17/2020 4:56:10 PM PDT by NRx

The US jobs cataclysm is not as terrifying as it looks. Part of it is real; another part is a statistical mirage caused by the enforced shutdown.

The 22 million surge in unemployment claims over the past four weeks has nothing in common with any previous recession, let alone the dole trauma of the 1930s.

“It is really a good news story. Disaster relief has been well-designed and is working,” says Professor Karen Dynan, assistant US Treasury Secretary in the Obama era and now at Harvard University.

Big employers in California – compelled to declare their intentions by state law – say that 93pc of layoffs are “temporary”, a term that has legal and contractual implications under US labour laws.

During the Lehman bust of 2008-09 the jobs purge was almost entirely “permanent” as companies rushed to slash costs and restructure their businesses.

A “real-time” study by Arizona State University says the unemployment rate is already 20pc and fast approaching the headline levels of the Great Depression. (Lagging official data has yet to catch up.) But this figure can be misinterpreted. Europe and America are not as different as they look.

Europe has Kurzarbeit programmes that provide subsidies allowing firms to hold onto idle workers through the crisis. The effect is to repress headline unemployment rates. The UK has its job retention scheme. Salaries are being covered by the state – partially or fully – in different countries until the lockdown is over.

America has reached more or less the same macroeconomic outcome by different means, using its flexible markets as a shock absorber and as a springboard for quick recovery later.

(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: covid19
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Unfortunately this is behind a paywall and unlike many news venues that allow a certain number of "free" articles, I don't believe the Telegraph is one of them. (Yes, it is one of very few mainstream news outlets I actually subscribe to.)
1 posted on 04/17/2020 4:56:10 PM PDT by NRx
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To: NRx

Bunch of stupid communists


2 posted on 04/17/2020 5:05:02 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: NRx

Survey: Less Than Half of L.A. County Still Has a Job After Coronavirus

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/less-than-half-of-l-a-county-residents-still-have-jobs-amid-covid-19-shutdown/


3 posted on 04/17/2020 5:08:36 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (The Revolution Will Not Be Televised but It Will Be Livestreamed)
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To: NRx

“Funemployed” part duuuhhh?


4 posted on 04/17/2020 5:13:11 PM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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To: NRx
>> paywall

Try plugging the URL in here.
https://outline.com/

5 posted on 04/17/2020 5:15:02 PM PDT by NewJerseyJoe (Rat mantra: "Facts are meaningless! You can use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!")
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To: NRx

Thanks for the post. The point made is important in that the US economy was placed on pause by the federal stimulus cash instead of being permitted to fall into recession. Moreover, the dollar remains strong because around the world, the economic effects of the pandemic have led to a preference for the most reliable currency instead of wannabes like the Euro or yuan. As the dust settles and the US and world economies recover, the US will be well-positioned to go from strength.


6 posted on 04/17/2020 5:16:20 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: NRx
Our economy has been brutally raped. “A shutdown is a broadly destructive solution, to a problem that could have been solved with far more targeted approaches!"

Quarantines only work to keep a small amount of sick people from going out and spreading the disease!

They don’t work to keep the vast majority of healthy people locked inside.

Thanks to HotHunt for this great visual!

7 posted on 04/17/2020 5:19:47 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Are the ChiComs, their blatant ownership of America, fake news media/CNN, the real Deep Staters?)
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To: NRx

liberal msm bullshiite


8 posted on 04/17/2020 5:29:21 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not Averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: Rockingham

True. Even China has to pay US dollars to buy the food, oil, metals, and other things they need, because nobody wants to be paid in their monopoly money that is constantly adjusted and propped-up.

China will pay. I’m not sure the EU will survive.


9 posted on 04/17/2020 5:32:31 PM PDT by bigbob (Trust Trump. Trust the Plan.)
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To: Nifster

The Brit scum Telegraph can shove a telegraph up their arsehole.


10 posted on 04/17/2020 5:55:38 PM PDT by shanover (...To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them.-S.Adams)
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To: NRx

Let me guess...professor Karen still has her worthless job.


11 posted on 04/17/2020 6:33:48 PM PDT by Newtoidaho (All I ask of living is to have no chains on me.)
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To: NRx
I would strongly urge Professor Karen Dynan to give up her cushy job at Harvard, lose most of her benefits and sit at home all day under quarantine. After all, its not such a bad thing at all. It's a really nice thing to happen to anyone really. /sarc
The trouble with people like her and Fauci and Cuomo and Whitmer is, they keep prescribing bitter medicine for everyone else even as they keep drinking Champagne.
12 posted on 04/17/2020 6:58:59 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: Nifster

can she just go take a flying leap?


13 posted on 04/17/2020 7:00:50 PM PDT by cherry
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To: Rockingham
meanwhile, many small businesses will never come back...despite the covid money....

young families are struggling...

homes not bought...

college not pursued....

private sector retirement savings kerplop....

14 posted on 04/17/2020 7:03:03 PM PDT by cherry
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To: Rockingham

The United States is already in recession. Probably in a depression.
What do you call 22 million out of work in just 4 weeks? By far the worst in American history?


15 posted on 04/17/2020 7:05:11 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: cherry

Millions are technically in default on their mortgage payments.


16 posted on 04/17/2020 7:07:01 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
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To: cherry

All too true. For many, the pandemic will mark when their lives took a bad turn.


17 posted on 04/17/2020 7:07:12 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: SmokingJoe

It took WWII for many of them to find employment. History could repeat itself.


18 posted on 04/17/2020 8:19:53 PM PDT by 353FMG ( .)
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To: SmokingJoe

It took WWII for many of them to find employment. History could repeat itself.


19 posted on 04/17/2020 8:21:09 PM PDT by 353FMG ( .)
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To: NewJerseyJoe

Try plugging the URL in here.
https://outline.com/

Cool! Better than the original.


20 posted on 04/17/2020 9:01:38 PM PDT by aquila48
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