[nicollo]

Interesting to see a clearer estimate of actual cases in China from WuhanFlu

Here for pdf of the full article: www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Estimating-the-True-Number-of-Chinas-COVID-19-Cases.pdf

The author doesn't extrapolate the 2.9mm cases number into deaths, but we can figure that out on our own:

Assuming 1.0% rate = 29,000 deaths
Assuming 2.0% rate = 58,000 deaths
Assuming 3.0% rate = 87,000 deaths
Assuming 4.0% rate = 116,000 deaths

I'd say it's much higher than that.

[null and void]

Pick a percentage...

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[nicollo]

Apologies... the author does consider morality:

“Mortality remains sadly unsettled, but China’s size would obscure even a high rate. Hubei’s COVID-19 mortality should be quite high, due to the obvious inability to prepare and being initially overwhelmed. It is 4.7 percent. If extended over the rest of China - which is thankfully and exaggeration — that would produce 136,000 deaths over what is now more than three months. In a typical three-month period in ex-Hubei China before COVID-19, nearly 2.5 million people died. Even that many deaths would be easily obscured.”

[dp0622]

Until we find out the real number we can play that numbers game like guessing how many marbles are in a jar. And then the one who is closest when we finally find out the real numbers wins.

[absalom01]

With China, it’s all just forensic accounting and intelligence at this point.

What did they know, and when did they know it?

Certainly by the end of December the CCP leadership knew

a) this had escaped from the virology research lab
b) it was capable of human-to-human transmission
c) it was highly infectious
d) It is highly virulent

Listening to Trump today, I think that he’s on to them, and is about to turn the screws.

We’ll see.

[Meatspace]

Obviously, China has understated their COVID-19 cases and deaths.

And that should be a warning to the rest of the world that COVID-19 can infect millions of people and kill tens or hundreds of thousands.

[WASCWatch]

My guess is that the 2.9 million is off by a factor of 10.

[DannyTN]

The U.S. Case Fatality Rate now exceeds 5%.
The world CFR is at 6.7%.
And Sweden’s is at 10.6%.

[DannyTN]

The U.S. Case Fatality Rate now exceeds 5%.
The world CFR is at 6.7%.
And Sweden’s is at 10.6%.

[allwrong57]

at the start, I said Chicoms wouldn’t even worry about it unless there were a quarter million dead. 3000 wouldn’t even be noticeable in a country with a billion people and Commies in charge.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

I just multiply their cases and death by ten, and then add “at least.”