He might get a higher than normal amount of votes in his own district but I see no reason to suspect he’d get a lot of votes in the state at large. What’s his name recognition?
Johnson didn’t cost Trump Michigan and Amash would be certain to get fewer votes than Johnson did (in Michigan). Johnson got 3.57% there, I can’t see Amash touching that.
Possibly he could even take more Never Trump votes from Biden. Frankly, he doesn’t worry me. I’d be more worried about him running for reelection and getting enough to elect the rat to the House.
Keep in mind also that there will be a Libertarian party nominee (probably with 50 state ballot access) regardless of his decision to run or not and that person will be the frontrunner to come in third, probably even if it’s wackjob John McAfee. Ideally we’d want someone like Linc Chafee (who sadly dropped out) who appeals to Never Trumpers but has limited appeal to an actual libertarian who might hold his nose for Trump.
We don’t know if he’d get fewer votes than Johnson in his home state. All he has to do is perform slightly better than Johnson. 3.79%, for example, although that would presume the race is identical to 2016, which it won’t be.
Agree. No one seems to figure that Johnson cost Trump NH, MN, possibly NM and that Trump’s total in MI and, I think, WI would have been higher with no Johnson on the ticket.