Posted on 04/14/2020 8:21:31 AM PDT by Hojczyk
The theory behind curve-flattening is not that the virus will mysteriously disappear while we are all hunkered down, and we will emerge when it is safe to come out. That won’t happen. The point of curve-flattening is to prolong the epidemic, making it last longer than it otherwise would, as you can see in the curve-flattening diagrams. That way, more or less the same number will get sick and the same percentage will die, with one exception: our hospitals will not be overwhelmed by a crush of COVID-19 cases, and so ICU rooms and so on will be available for those who need them. That was the point of the shutdowns–to flatten the curve by stretching out the epidemic.
We know now, the COVID-19 virus was grossly overestimated, at least with respect to the demand its victims would place on hospitals. Weirdly, it is not easy to find a definitive figure for the number of hospitalizations to date. The Centers for Disease Control estimates, if you do the arithmetic, that as of April 4 around 41,250 people were hospitalized due to COVID-19, which seems too low. The COVID Tracking Project pegs it at 62,673 as of April 13. Does that sound like a lot of hospitalizations? As usual, the numbers need a context.
During last year’s flu season, according to the CDC, 490,561 people in the U.S. were hospitalized due to the seasonal flu virus. The prior year, it was 810,000 flu hospitalizations. This explains why, as we noted here, America’s hospitals have not been overwhelmed by the number of Wuhan flu sufferers, not even in New York City.
Once again, government officials are making decisions with catastrophic effects on many millions of lives, on the basis of models that have proved to be wrong. The shutdowns should end tomorrow.
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
But New York, which screwed up and waited very long, basically until they had a blow-up, didn’t overwhelm the hospitals. They didn’t run out of ICU, or ventilators. We were able to build extra hospital space, and most of it went unused.
We needed to flatten the curve so that idiots could make a living telling us that we never needed to flatten the curve. And it worked.
and HCQ may be the thing that is helping keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, which means we had the means to not have to lock down so much.
*So just have to ask the men here. How many times has your wife or girlfriend refused any interaction. I’m up to 4 now.*
The subject came up once, last week. We did the deed. We’re good for a month. :)
*“interaction”?*
Sex. He means sex.
They seem like their health care system was quite stressed by the outbreak they had and are having even though they did not get totally overrun thanks to the swift action of President Trump and his team. The social distancing mitigation also seems to have made a very large difference.
Quite. The only official step that was a factor: school closing.
Yes the state issued “state of emergency” and “shelter in place” orders, but frankly - most didn’t care. We all just stopped congregating. It was only the ending of compulsory attendance in the viral stewpot of public schools that actually changed anything, it did give everyone a simultaneous tipping point.
If you WANT to go socialize, few locales will stop you.
Short video from Facebook:
True. People talking about phony numbers and then the real numbers aren’t close.
Amen! Trump is still talking about 500,000 lives saved! Where does he get this number from? He is depending on his ‘experts’ and not admitting that this has been a giant hoax. You cannot shut down an entire nation and send them some money and think the nation can survive.
Now it isn’t enough to ‘flatten the curve’ we have to see it moving downward!
“Sex. He means sex.”
That’s what I thought, but I wanted him to say it.
He’s essentially arguing that any success of social distancing is evidence it was never needed.
Sort of like arguing if you evacuate a flood zone before the flood hits and there are fewer casualties as a result, that’s proof the evacuation was never needed.
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